CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/06/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03002534
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: June 4, 1954

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. .9
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE Q /
RUTH: HR 70-2
DATE. 2/././6.1:2 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
� GENERAL
1. The Viet Minh threat to the Tonkin delta (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Nanning airfield not expanded for military use (page 5).
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
. Australian prime minister sees "time running against us" in
Southeast Asia (page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Indian agitators may infiltrate East Pakistan (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Saudi Arabia may terminate Point IV program (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
Pro- EDC forces press for early debate in French assembly (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
. Peron believes OAS meeting should not be limited to Guatemalan
situation (page 8).
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GENERAL
The Viet Minh threat to the Tonkin delta:
During the past week, an increasing number
of military and diplomatic officials, both American and French, have
become convinced that the Viet Minh's rapid redeployment since the fall
of Dien Bien Phu warrants expectation of a large-scale attack on the
Tonkin delta, possibly as early as mid-June (see map, p. 4).
Four of the five Viet Minh divisions which
participated in the fighting at Dien Bien Phu have already reached assembly
points around the French perimeter or are rapidly approaching them.
Other possible indications of a Viet Minh campaign plan are: (a) the train-
ing of a large number of recruits to fill out the depleted divisions; s'
tinued augmentation of the enemy's heavy weapons supplied from China;
So,
General Cogny, French commander in Tonkin,
told the American army attach�ecently he expects a full-scale attack
between 15 and 20 June. Cogny is reported pessimistic over the chances
of holding Hanoi and fears the Viet Minh will concentrate on cutting the
Hanoi-Haiphong lines of communication. The city of Hanoi is low on
rice stocks and must depend on daily supplies of coal to operate its elec-
tric power and water purification plants, according to information re-.
ceived by the American charg�n Saigon. If these supplies were inter-
rupted, the city's early collapse could be expected.
The American army attach�stimated on
3 June that the Viet Minh will be ready to attack the delta by 20 June and
that it firmly intends to do so. He reports that only General Navarre,
among the leading military figures in Indochina, is not expecting an attack
during this operational season.
The attach�urther believes that French-
Vietnamese forces cannot hold off a major attack for more than 30 days
and that a general French withdrawal to a 15-mile radius bridgehead
around Haiphong is being planned. In his opinion, French forces could
hold this bridgehead indefinitely.
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VIETNAM
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Viet Minh assembly areas
French Mobile Group
French Perimeter
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Scale 1:1,530,000
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FAR EAST
2. Nanning airfield not expanded for military use:
Comment: While recent photography of the
Nanning area reveals extensive construction of military installations and
storage facilities there, an absence of tactical aircraft and the poor con-
dition of the airfield suggest that this build-up does not involve air facili-
ties.
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
3. Australian prime minister sees "time running against us" in Southeast
Asia:
Prime Minister Menzies observed to the
American embassy in Canberra on 2 June re-
garding Southeast Asia that "time is running
against us." He said a cabinet session on 4 Sane
would deal exclusively with problems connected with that area, and he con-
templated sending his external affairs minister, Richard Casey, back to
Geneva immediately.
The embassy recalls that Menzies has ex-
pressed his personal "unalterable opposition" to an Indochina solution
based on partition and comments that his increased participation in
Commonwealth leadership would have great usefulness, both in the main-
tenance of a firm position and in influencing the South Asian powers which
took part in the Colombo conference.
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Comment: Prior to the elections of 29 May,
the Menzies government was hindered by the uncertainty of its tenure and
the demands of the