CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/03/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003275
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: March 20, 1955

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'TOP SECRE�
20 March 1955
Copy No. 88
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 53
NO CHANGE IN CLASS EE
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE -(3 1 0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 7il &I) REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
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V /A
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Preparations for Soviet withdrawal from Port Arthur noted
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Comment on new Japanese cabinet (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3.
4. Iraq reportedly approached to help overthrow Syrian cabinet
(page 5).
5. Comment on differences among Balkan allies (page 6)
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Hungary and Poland to resume diplomatic relations with Greece
(page 6).
7. Comment on 1955 Polish budget (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Comment on French Council action on Paris agreements (page 8).
9. Break with Communists reportedly sought by Nenni Socialists
(page 9).
LATIN AMERICA
10. Coup attempt expected in Panama during week of 21 March (page 10).
11. Comment on possible Colombian revolution (page 10).
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SOVIET UNION
1. Preparations for Soviet withdrawal from Port Arthur noted:
Comment: The intention to withdraw
Soviet forces from the Port Arthur area by 31 May 1955 was an-
nounced in the Sino-Soviet declaration of 11 October 1954. Among
Soviet forces at Port Arthur are an estimated 60,000 ground troops,
air units with authorized strengths totalling 445 MIGTs and 160 IL-28'so
five or six submarines, and six minesweepers.
FAR EAST
2. Comment on new Japanese cabinet:
The new Hatoyama cabinet is composed
exclusively of Democrats, with a number
of hold-overs, and accurately reflects
the balance of power among competing
factions within the Democratic Party.
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The retention of Foreign Minister
Shigemitsu against Hatoyama's wishes, may serve as a brake
on the prime minister's efforts toward accommodation with the
Communist bloc. Hatoyama has already started to undercut
Shigemitsu, however, by announcing he would consult Arata
Sugihara, his original choice as foreign minister, on the ap-
pointment of the chief Japanese delegate to the Japan-USSR nego-
tiations in New York.
Sugihara has been appointed director
of the Defense Board and, according to Japanese defense officials,
this will have an adverse effect on Japanese rearmament. The
appointment of an able, aggressive welfare minister and the re-
tention of strong personalities in economic posts emphasize the
continuance of the "butter over guns" policy.
Hatoyama's frail health and his party's
minority position in the Diet make it evident that the new govern-
ment will be short-lived. Former prime minister Yoshida's Lib-
erals have pledged co-operation on legislation of mutual interest,
but their action in joining the Socialists to elect a Liberal speaker
and Socialist vice-speaker in the lower hrse serves notice that
their co-operation will not be automatic.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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4. Iraq reportedly approached to help overthrow Syrian cabinet:
Iraq's acting foreign minister told the
American ambassador in Baghdad on
17 March that his government has been
receiving requests from the president
of Syria and other friendly elements for help in establishing a
conservative, pro-Iraqi cabinet in Syria.
The Iraqi official said that the kind of
help desired had not been defined. He asked whether the Syrians
had approached the United States, and urged "sympathetic under-
standing" of such requests.
Comment: The Iraqi official's statement
seems to be an indirect bid for American support and suggests
that Iraqi planning for a coup in Syria may have reached an ad-
vanced stage. The Iraqis presumably would first seek to over-
throw the government by parliamentary means and would consider
military intervention only if this effort failed.
Syrian president Atasi implied on 7 March
that he was considering asking Iraq to send troops to Damascus to
block the establishment of Egyptian military control there.
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5. Comment on differences among Balkan allies:
Apparent differences over the purposes
of the Balkan alliance threaten con-
tinued co-operation among Greece,
Yugoslavia and Turkey.
Turkish prime minister Menderes
asserts that Belgrade has consistently
dragged its heels on carrying out the
military aspects of the pact, and he
believes that Yugoslavia may hope, in
the event of war, to be "another World
War II Sweden."
Greece and Yugoslavia, however, express
complete satisfaction with their joint military co-ordination. Am-
bassador Cannon in Athens and Ambassador .Riddleberger' in
Belgrade both believe that Marshal Tito has no illusions that he
can remain neutral.
On the other hand, Greece believes that
Ankara's interest in the military aspect of the tripartite pact is
secondary to its interest in the political advantages of the pact.
The Greeks accuse the Turks also of
having "continuously tried to stall and even subvert" the creation
of the Balkan parliamentary assembly. They probably feel Turkey
has no interest in a purely Balkan entente but intends to use pact
membership to strengthen its influence with the major Western
powers and to enhance its prestige in the Mediterranean and Near
East areas.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Hungary and Poland to resume diplomatic relations with Greece:
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Comment: According to the French
Press Agency, the Greek government announced on 18 March it
would resume diplomatic relations with Poland.
These developments suggest that the
"peaceful coexistence" tactics, have not been altered by the
leadership changes in Moscow.
Greece will probably also respond
favorably to Rumanian proposals now being negotiated. Simi-
lar bids from Albania are likely to continue to meet with in-
difference in Athens because of Greek territorial claims.
No progress has been made in Bulgarian-Greek
negotiations because of disagreement over the payment of Bul-
garian reparations to Greece.
7. Comment on 1955 Polish budget:
The Warsaw broadcast on the 1955 Polish
budget reveals that allocations for national
defense are scheduled to increase about
12 percent this year--the same percentage as Soviet defense alloca-
tions�in order to "maintain full vigilance in the face of the designs
of imperialist circles, aimed at a revival of German imperialism."
Though total budget allocations will rise
11 percent, the increase in planned defense outlays cannot be at-
tributed solely to the larger over-all size of the budget. Last
year the budget defense allocations showed no increase, while total
budgetary allocations rose by 6.4 percent.
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Finance Minister Dietrich called the ex-
pansion of heavy industry the basis of the further development of
the national economy and also placed "special emphasis on the devel-
opment of agricultural production," as did the recent policy announced
in the Soviet Union.
Emphasis on consumers' goods pro-
duction will apparently continue through 1955, however, as the
1955 plan calls for a greater increase in the output of consumer
goods than of heavy industrial equipment. An official com-
mentator has stated that these rates of increase are "excep-
tional" and a departure from a "binding principle."
Poland is likely to place primary em-
phasis on heavy industry when anew long-term plan is inaugu-
rated in 1956.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Comment on French Council action on Paris agreements:
The French Council is still likely to
approve the Paris agreements without
amendment by the end of March, but
the opponents of German rearmament
are making last minute efforts severely
es ing the strength ot the Faure government. It was only with
great difficulty that the premier was able to put off reopening of
the Saar question in the Assembly until after the scheduled
Council debate on the Paris agreements.
Most influential French senators believe
the chances for Council approval have considerably improved
largely because of the performance of Faure and Foreign Minis-
ter Pinay before the Council's foreign affairs and defense com-
mittees,
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9. Break with Communists reportedly sought by Nenni Socialists:
A movement is under way in Italy to
separate the Nenni Socialists from the
Communists.
Participants are leaders of the Nenni
Socialists, Democratic Socialists, Republicans, various splinter
left-of-center parties, and the left wing of the Liberals. The
aim is to find, through the creation of a political alternative to
the present center government coalition, a solution to the current
Impasse which prevents the government from acting on pressing
problems.
Nenni himself is reported to have agreed
to this scheme, from which Democratic Socialist leader Saragat
has allegedly been excluded.
Comment: The Scelba, government's days
appear numbered because of failure to achieve concrete results on
Its reform program, and a turn to the left is a distinct possibility.
Nenni has reportedly declared he would support any government
committed to a more social-minded policy than the present one.
the Communist Pary is encouraging a preax witn me iNenm
Socialists. Nenni Socialist participation in a left-of-center gov-
ernment would serve Communist purposes by undermining Italy's
pro-Western ties.
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LATIN AMERICA
10. Coup attempt expected in Panama during week of 21 March:
Lieutenant Colonel Saturnino Flores,
second in command of the Panama
National guard, will attempt to over-
throw President Ricardo Arias during
he wee o March in order to prevent the trial of ousted
President Guizado,
Comment: The trial of Guizado, who
is accused of complicity in the Remon murder, is scheduled to
begin on 21 March. The involvement of other government offi-
cials might be revealed during the trial which is a potentially
explosive factor in the Panamanian situation. Certain forces
in the government apparently plan to find Guizado guilty "by hook
or crook."
Flores, who has been described as a "tough
career man . . from the ranks," appeared to be emerging as a
strong man in January. He might command more loyalty from
the National Guard, a determining factor in Panamanian stability,
than his superior, Commandant Bolivar Vallarino. Differences
among Guard leaders have been rumored, but prior to this time
there had been no information that Flores would attempt a coup.
11. Comment on possible Colombian revolution:
A revolution led by General Alfredo
Duarte Blum, Commanding General of
the Armed Forces, is expected to be-
gin in Colombia within a few days,
troops are already being moved into strategic positions in Bogota.
General Duarte, who is closely linked
with the major opposition Liberal Party, has not prior to this
time revealed personal political ambitions. Popular with an
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important group of officers, he has increased his power over the
past two years. He is believed to be friendly to the United States.
Inept government by Conservative pres-
ident Rojas, together with his statement of 1 January that the
state of siege imposed in 1949 would continue throughout his term
of office, or until August 1958, has seriously antagonized both
Liberals and Conservatives. Outbreaks of sporadic violence have
recently increased.
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