CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/03/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003282
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: March 9, 1955

Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 CO3003282
f
E1)
9 March 1955
Copy No. 88
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 143
NO CHANGE IN CLASS 1$1
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: Z-01 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: Ilit12.14 REVIEWER:
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
-TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
Pr% rl rirri
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
Nov
SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Japanese estimate of US intentions regarding Formosa (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on role of former Cambodian king (page 3).
3. Chou En-lai and Nasr invited to visit Rangoon en route to Afro-
Asian conference (page 4).
4. Arrests of Indonesian opposition members may indicate future
government election tactics (page 5).
5. Indonesia may extend de jure recognition to North Vietnam
(page 6).
SOUTH ASIA
6. Congress victory in Indian state of Andhra does not ensure
stability (page 6).
* *
9 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
TflP RrrprT
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
pro, erriprrr
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
*woe ,Nre
FAR EAST
1. Japanese estimate of US intentions regarding Formosa:
Japanese ambassador Iguchi in Washington
believes the United States plans eventually
to draw a truce line in the Formosa Strait
and to bring about a de facto truce.
Comment: Iguchi's analysis is in line
with the position favored by Japan, which sees a Nationalist with-
drawal to Formosa as the first step in the eventual emergence of
an independent Formosa and the acceptance of Peiping as the lawful
government on the mainland.
Japan's anticipation of the "two China's"
concept became evident during its peace treaty negotiations with the
Nationalists in late 1951, when it refused to acknowledge Nationalist
sovereignty over the mainland.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on role of former Cambodian king:
Developments in Cambodia since King
Sihanouk's abdication leave no doubt that
the former monarch intends to retain his
9 Mar 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
TOP srcRrT
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
(
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 CO3003282
1 %JAI �...11.4%.� 1.1...� a
Nor'
dominant position in Cambodian political life. Postponing his
"return to the people," Sihanouk took complete charge of a mili-
tary graduation ceremony on 5 March at which the new king was
present, and was evidently vastly pleased with himself in his new
role, according to Ambassador McClintock.
He informed the American ambassador
that "he had arranged" with the palace and the government for
negotiations on American aid to be brought to a speedy conclusion.
To this end, he had appointed his mother his "plenipotentiary."
McClintock believes Sihanouk will continue to be king in everything
except name, acting through a sort of "shogunate," and his spokes-
men will be his three privy councilors.
In the event Sihanouk tires of his present
role, he may arrange to have his throne restored to him. There
are precedents for such action in Cambodian history, and the
machinery exists for organizing a "spontaneous demand" for Sihanouk's
return. Such a restoration would, moreover, have the strong sup-
port of the present king and aueen. who have been conspicuously ill
at ease in their new roles.
3. Chou En-lai and Nasr invited to visit Rangoon en route to Afro-
Asian
Comment: Nu, who is about to visit New
Delhi himself, appears to be increasingly active in the role of a behind-
the-scenes arranger for the Bandung conference. He is now in Bangkok
for a series of talks.
9 Mar 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
TD Crf,Drrr
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
*fere *me
Nu has been in particularly close contact
with Chou En-lai. Should the latter respond favorably to Nu's
invitation to visit Rangoon, he will be able to elicit Burmese sup-
port for whatever proposals he intends to advance at Bandung. In
the event his arrival coincided with that of Nasr, he would also
have an opportunity to influence an important Arab leader who has
recently professed increased interest in adopting a policy of neu-
tralism and independence toward the West.
4. Arrests of Indonesian opposition members may indicate future
government election tactics:
A number of opposition Masjumi party
leaders were arrested in late February,
the day before a town election in West
Java, according to the Indonesian press0
the arrests were
responsible for the National Party's winning the election by a slim
plurality, since the detainees were unable to vote and their fami-
lies were afraid to. Ostensibly the arrests were in connection
with the activities of armed bands in the area, and the Masjumi
fears they may be an indication of future National Party tactics
to upset the Masjumi organization.
The election returns in the town showed
the Communists a strong third party.
Comment: Both the National Party, which
heads the cabinet, and the Communist Party, which supports it, fear
a Masjumi victory in Indonesia's forthcoming first general elections
because of the Masjumi 's identification with Mohammedanism, the
nation's predominant religion. As one of their campaign tactics,
these two parties have tried to identify the Masjumi with the illegal
Darul Islam, a fanatical Moslem organization and Indonesia's prin-
cipal dissident group. The February arrests apparently were made
largely on these grounds.
The Communists have campaigned more
actively than any other party, and are reported gaining strength at
the expense of both the National Party and the Masjumi.
9 Mar 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
rw-gpeRFT
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
'try'
5. Indonesia may extend de jure recognition to North Vietnam:
Comment: The Indonesian foreign
minister told the American ambassador in February that the cabi-
net had decided to extend de facto recognition to all four Indo-
chinese states and to establish consulates general in each.
The Djakarta government probably wants to
take action on the Indochina recognition problem before the Afro-
Asian conference in April, to which all four Indochinese governments
have been invited.
SOUTH ASIA
6. Congress victory in Indian state of Andhra does not ensure stability:
The Congress Party still faces major prob-
lems in Andhra state despite the fact it
alone has won an absolute majority in the
recent elections and, with its allies, con-
trols a large majority of the 196 seats in the state legislative as-
sembly. The Communists received over 30 percent of the votes
cast as against Congress' 50 percent. The Communists' capability
for troublemaking will presumably again come to the fore as the
intensity of Congress Party activity in Andhra declines.
9 Mar 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6
Tnr RrearT
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282
Nr.,L L-4 s �
Factionalism still exists within the
Congress Party organization and competent leadership, as in
the past, apparently is still lacking. A thorough overhauling
of the Congress Party organization in Andhra, as well as of
the administration of the state government, will be necessary
to achieve true stability.
9 Mar 55
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03003282