CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/09/18

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003517
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: September 18, 1957

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CURRENT
/ INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
/ TOP SECRET
/3/1 %/r/ zs
177 A-131c'mved for Rel_a5: 291/1_?/111C�3��3517'1./
18 September 1957
Copy No. 136
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77A
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NEXT REVIF-AAV DATE:
DAAUTTEIH: 02_1( 2 1LREVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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CONTENTS
1. THAI ARMY COUP AFTERMATH
2. GUATEMALAN COUP REPORTED IMMINENT
(page 4).
(page 3).
3. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNIST CONFERENCE REPORTEDLY
PLANNED (page 5).
D4t._ 4. PEIPING ANNOUNCES NEW COLLECTIVE FARM MEASURES
(page 6).
4)4E, 5. PAKISTAN TO CUT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EXPENDI-
TURES SHARPLY (page 7).
18 Sept 57
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1, THAI ARMY COUP AFTERMATH
Reference:
King Phumiphon has given the Thai
-'army's bloodless coup royal approval.
He has urged the public to follow the
orders of Field Marshal Sarit, whom
he has appointed "custodian of Bangkok
for military affairs." His royal decree
also charged that the people had lost con-
fidence in the Phibun regime.
In talking to reporters after the coup,
Sarit stated that Thailand would continue its economic and
military aid agreements with the United States, and that he
was anxious for SEATO to maintain its headquarters in Bang-
kok. He reportedly has announced, however, that the confer-
ence of SEATO military advisers scheduled to convene in
Bangkok Thursday would have to be postponed because "no
one can speak for Thailand at present."
The army marshal said that the new coup
group had not yet decided whether to form a provisional cab-
inet pending the reopening of the National Assembly in Novem-
ber, or whether to dissolve the assembl and hold new and
"free" elections.
Sarit planned to advance permanent civil
servants to senior ministerial posts. This may indicate he
intends to form a provisional cabinet of nonpolitical experts
until the assembly meets.
There is still no definite word about former
premier Phibun's whereabouts, but he was last rumored to be
driving toward the Malayan border. Former police director
general Phao is already in exile, and air chief Fuen and navy
chief Yuthasat apparently have little prospect of holding their
jobs.
Sarit has left the door open for Phibunis
return to honored retirement or perhaps even a return to the
premiership at some future date. He broadcast an appeal to
the former premier to return and told the press that he regretted
having to overthrow Phibun.
18 Sept 57
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yr/
. GUATEMALAN COUP REPORTED IMMINENT
Retired Guatemalan colonels have
joined with leaders of the leftist
Revolutionary party (PR) and a Com-
munist-dominated labor group to plan
a revolt which is to occur shortly,
Defense Minister Oliva, worried about
subversion in the army by this group, has ordered army
installations to redouble security measures.
Comment
This group is probably not strong enough
to seize the government. The greatest
threat seems to come from rightist groups who might use
the excuse of leftist-inspired violence to take over the gov-
ernment. These groups are desirous of bypassing a pres-
idential election, which if held, is almost certain to result
in victory for Miguel Ortiz Passarelli and the middle-of-the-
road forces which backed Castillo.
With the 20 October election of a successor
to the late President Castillo Armas only little more than a
month away, apprehension regarding a possible military coup
has become more widespread than at any time since the week
immediately following Castillo's assassination last July.
18 Sept 57
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3. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNIST CONFERENCE
REPORTEDLY PLANNED
The secretary general of the Netherlands
Communist party reportedly stated on his
return recently from a seven-week trip to
e USSR that within a short time he would
a of all "socialist" countries in Moscow.
Also attending would be representatives from the Communist
parties of France and Italy.
.Comment Such a conference might be called in con=
nection with the 40th anniversary celebrations
of the Bolshevik revolution in November. In the latest issue of
Kommunist, an article dealing with interparty relations stated
that "many brotherly parties now advocate periodic convocation
of broad international conferences of Communist and workers'
parties."
Attendance by China, Poland, and Yugo-
slavia would serve to demonstrate the unity of the world Com-
munist movement--a matter dear to the heart of Khrushchev.
The representation of parties from outside the bloc would be
particularly effective in overcoming the lack of discipline re-
sulting from the events following de-Stalinization.
The Tito-Gomulka communiqu�oted that
bilateral relations between Communist parties and workers'
parties "should particularly be developed," but that "wider con-
tacts on questions of interest to other parties can also be very
useful."
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4. PEIPING ANNOUNCES NEW COLLECTIVE
FARM MEASURES
Comment on:
Three new central committee directives
announced by the authoritative People's
Daily on 16 September reflect Peiping's
continuing concern over difficulties the
regime is having with its collective farm
program. The measures represent an important retreat from
the "high tide of socialism," proclaimed by Mao Tse-tung in
1955, which has placed more than 90 percent of China's peas-
ants in collectives. The changes appear intended to supple-
ment the program of persuasion initiated last month to gain
support from the peasantry. Institution of these changes at
this time indicates that the government is particularly con-
cerned over the crucial fall harvest.
These directives stipulate that the ideal
size for collectives is a village of 100 households--as against
the present tendency to expand the current nationwide average
of 155--to compensate for the current "low level in technique
and management." They direct that overhauling of the collec-
tive structure will begin at once and be completed by next
spring. The Communists have indicated that once the collec-
tives have been reorganized on this basis, there will be no
further changes for ten years.
Members of collectives will be permitted
to engage in private sideline pursuits, such as the ownership
of domestic animals, as a means of increasing income. Adjust-
ment of "economic benefits" will be made to protect the interests
of poorer peasants and retain their support. At the same time,
cadres have been ordered to "unite with" comparatively well-to-
do peasants�acknowledged to be the most skillful farmers--and to
give them stronger ideological leadership. One of the directives
notes that some members of the latter group have sought to
leave the collectives.
18 Sept 57
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5. PAKISTAN TO CUT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
EXPENDITURES SHARPLY
Comment on:
The recommendations made on 7 September
by the Pakistan Planning Board, which call
for a 40-percent reduction in economic de-
velopment expenditures during the fiscal
year beginning on 1 April 1958, indicate that Pakistan's Five-
Year Plan (1955-60) will fall significantly short of its goals.
Since this cutback has been forced on the planning board by the
Ministry of Finance because of lack of funds, it seems likely
that the government will substantially accept the new recommen-
dations.
Total government allocations for the first
three years of the plan amounted to only $75898779000 of a planned
five-year total of $1,575,000,000. Since the allocations the board
has recommended for the fourth year of the plan are only $241, -
500,000, the government by 1959 will have implemented less than
two thirds of the plan even if it spends all the allocations, which
seems unlikely. Private capital presumably will be unable to
make up for the shortfall in public spending, since the planning
board also recommends that private investment be cut from an
original 1958-59 goal of $168,000,000 to $94,500,000.
The recommendations will mean that few new
projects will be started during this period. Most of the projects
presently under way are in West Pakistan, and if the number of
new projects is sharply reduced it will be impossible for the gov-
ernment to raise development expenditures in East Pakistan to the
level of West Pakistan. This will confirm the belief of most East
Pakistanis that they are being exploited by the central government
for the benefit of West Pakistan,
18 Sept 57
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7
-CONFIDENTIAL
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