CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/01/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003773
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 6, 1954

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 1.5
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
LI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2oog
AUTH: HR
DATE_: c0AIIIIEVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Britain expresses reservations on proposed Pakistan-Turkey
agreement (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Rhee ends threat to use force in demilitarized zone (page 3
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Indonesian president supports pro-Communist defense minister
(page 4).
4. French Foreign Ministry fears effects of Viet Minh successes
(page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Indian parties allegedly to unite against American aid to Pakistan
(page 5).
NEAR EAST AFRICA
6. Impact of local anti-Westernism on Iraq's foreign policy (page 6).
7. British ambassador discouraged over Suez negotiations (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Drop in membership of Hungarian collective farms revealed
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Vienna shows cooperative attitude on proposed Berlin conference
(page 7).
10. Bonn doubts success of Berlin four-power meeting (page 8).
11. Comment on Premier Pella's resignation (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Britain expresses reservations on proposed Pakistan-Turkey
agreement:
According to the American embassy in
London, the British embassy in Wash-
ington has been instructed to express
strong reservations on the proposed
American plan to link military aid to Pakistan with a defense
agreement between that country and Turkey. The British feel
that such an agreement would do nothing to strengthen Middle
East defenses, that the gap between the defenses of the two
countries could not be filled in the foreseeable future, and that
no defense plan for the area could be effective without British
forces.
London also fears that the proposed
plan would further worsen Pakistani and Western relations with
India.
Comment: Despite this reaction to the
proposed agreement between Pakistan and Turkey, the British
presumably still do not oppose American aid to Pakistan as such.
They evidently object to not having been consulted in advance on a
plan involving their interests.
FAR EAST
2. Rhee ends threat to use force in demilitarized zone:
Ambassador Briggs reported on 5 January
that President Rhee now calls Foreign Min-
ister Pyun's threat to employ armed police
to prevent Indian screening of Korean pris-
oners a "misunderstanding." Rhee said he would accept General
Taylor's offer to include unarmed South Korean police� in the neutral
zone patrol to watch the Indian headcount,
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Subsequently, Taylor refused General
Won's request to send his own military police, who are outside
the UN Command, to the demilitarized zone.
Comment: Rhee had indicated to Briggs
and Taylor on 4 January that he might withdraw the threat when he
said that Pyun's note was merely a suggestion not to be taken too
seriously. Taylor's 5 January warning to Rhee that the UN Command
was bound by the truce to prevent intrusions in the neutral zone un-
doubtedly influenced Rhee's decision.
Rhee often uses Pyun as a channel for
threats for which he may later desire to avoid responsibility.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Indonesian president supports pro-Communist defense minister:
President Sukarno supported pro-Communist
defense minister Iwa Kusumasumantri during
two conferences with military leaders on 31.
December, according to the Djakarta press.
Sukarno is sal o ave announced that the army chief of staff has full
authority to deal with the army situation, but that the defense minis-
ter's recent appointments of leftist officers to the army general staff
would not be canceled.
The American embassy comments that ex-
cept for the vague statement giving the chief of staff authority to deal
with the situation, Sukarno has backed the cabinet and has made no
concessions to the moderate faction opposing the defense minister.
Comment: President Sukarno's support of
Twa Kusumasumantri is the heaviest blow yet to anti-Communist army
elements.
Four of Indonesia's seven territorial army
commanders announced in mid-December that unless the staff appoint-
ments of the pro-Communist defense minister were canceled, they
would no longer recognize his authority. Although the chief of staff
did not concur in the commanders' statement, he also strongly opposed
the appointments.
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French Foreign Ministry fears effects of Viet Minh successes:
French Foreign Ministry officials have
expressed to the American embassy in
Paris fear that the Viet Minh may win
short-term military successes in the
coming weeks, with a consequent effect on the political situation
in France. They believe that even such Communist victories
could tip the balance in favor of negotiations to end the Indochina
war.
The Foreign Ministry also fears that an
approach for negotiations may be made by the Viet Minh through
India or Indonesia in order to create further difficulties for France..
Comment: Following Ho Chi Minh's
statement in November to a Swedish journalist that he was willing
to negotiate, the French government dodged the issue by indicating
willingness to consider any offer made through official channels.
Domestic pressure would force the French government to consider
such an offer seriously. Continued Viet Minh successes, even if
only of little military significance, would also increase the demand
in France for five-power talks including Communist China.
SOUTH ASIA
I. Indian parties allegedly to unite against American aid to Pakistan:
Comment: The Indian government is aware
of the possibilities of unrest and would take drastic steps to prevent a
critical situation from developing. There is no indication that Hindu
rightists or any larger political front could unite in such large-scale
action as to threaten the authority of the government.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Impact of local anti-Westernism on Iraq's foreign policy:
Current strong Iraqi press and parliamentary
criticism of Prime Minister Jamali for his pro-Western attitude is
generally preventing him from cooperating with the West.
On 6 December Jamali told Ambassador
Berry that a three-hour parliamentary attack on his pro-Western
attitude prevented him from urging Jordan to hold armistice talks
with Israel. A week later similar attacks kept Iraqi officials from
publicly endorsing President Eisenhower's atomic energy proposals.
On 29 December Jamali denied publicly any intention of leading Iraq
into any Western-sponsored Middle East defense pact. Moreover, fin
a parliamentary debate on 2 January, he asserted Iraq's independence
of Britain and the United States.
The attacks on Jamali and Egypt's current
neutralist maneuvers are likely to hamper him in his efforts to ob-
tain military aid from the United States. They will also probably make
him cautious in supporting any defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan.
7. British ambassador discouraged over Suez negotiations:
British ambassador Stevenson in Cairo told
Ambassador Caffery on 2 January that he
was discouraged at the present atmosphere
in London. A few days earlier he had recom-
mended that London release to Cairo 15 million pounds in blocked
sterling balances on 1 january as was done last year. London replied
that only 5 million would be made available,
On 3 January Caffery reported that Stevenson
had said, perhaps not altogether seriously, that London seemed to be
putting every possible obstacle in his path.
Comment: On his return to Cairo on 17
December Stevenson was to have reopened negotiations. His dis-
couragement and London's reported unwillingness to release a larger
amount of Egypt's approximately 165 million pounds of blocked sterling
balances accumulated during World War II suggest that there is little
hope for a break in the present stalemate. Neither side has shown any
indication of making concessions on the base availability and uniform
issues.
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EASTERN EUROPE
8. Drop in membership of Hungarian collective farms revealed:
Figures released by Minister of Agriculture
Hegedus on 19 December show a decrease in membership and acreage in
Hungarian collective farms. Membership is down from over 400,000
to about 260,000 families, and the percentage of the country's arable
land cultivated by collectives has fallen from 26 to 20 percent.
This slowdown of the drive toward socializa-
tion of agriculture has not been matched in any other East European
Satellite, but is similar to developments last year in Yugoslavia
following the relaxation of collectivization.
The Hungarian regime adopted highly dis-
criminatory economic measures to discourage widespread peasant
withdrawal from collectives last summer and fall. Its unwillingness
to use more stringent measures suggests a government fear of antago-
nizing the peasantry and thus Jeopardizing the new incentive program
for increasing agricultural production.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Vienna shows cooperative attitude on proposed Berlin conference:
Foreign Minister Figl on 4 Tanuary con-
firmed to the three Western high commis-
sioners in Vienna that his government will
appeal "at an appropriate time" for revision
of the economic provisions of the Austrian draft treaty and is now
ready to discuss the kind of revision to be sought at the Berlin con-
ference. He agreed that a clause in the treaty requiring Austria's
neutrality would be incompatible with its sovereignty. He added
that no neutrality commitment would be given the Soviet Union with-
out prior consultation with the West.
Figl said that he is addressing an urgent
appeal to the four powers for "discussion and settlement" of the
Austrian question at Berlin and that he intends to request formal
Austrian participation in the negotiations.
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Comment: Figl's attitude should greatly
improve the Western tactical position on Austria at the proposed
Berlin meeting. While the Austrian position on neutralization seems
fairly firm, Vienna is not likely to insist on revision of the economic
provisions should this alone seem a bar to a treaty settlement.
10. Bonn doubts success of Berlin four-power meeting:
Officials of the West German Foreign
Ministry have informed American repre-
sentatives in Bonn that they expect no con-
crete results from the forthcoming Berlin
conference. They believe that the Kremlin will not permit free
elections in East Germany, and that any terms it might offer for
German unity would be unacceptable to the majority of Germans
as well as to the Allies.
These officials caution that the Allies
should avoid giving the impression in any way during the conference
that EDC is the primary Western policy objective, but instead should
show confidence in the German people by limiting their conditions for
German unity to free elections and to freedom of alliance for any all-
German government.
Comment: While free elections will remain
an indispensable condition for unity for all political parties in the West
German Bundestag, there is some doubt that the opposition Social Demo-
cratic Party and certain coalition deputies would insist on freedom of
alliance.
11. Comment on Premier Pella's resignation:
Italian premier Pella's resignation on 5
January resulted from a virtual ultimatum from his Christian
Democratic Party against his choice of Salvatore Aldisio as the
new minister of agriculture. Pella may believe his badly split
party will be unable to agree on a successor; this could result in
his being returned to office in a stronger position.
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Aldisio's selection, considered a concession
to the Monarchists, had been opposed especially by Amintore Fanfani,
leader of the Christian Democratic left wing and himself a former
minister of agriculture. Pella had planned merely to reshuffle his
cabinet and preliminary conversations had indicated Christian Demo-
cratic agreement to basing the new government on cooperation with
the Monarchists.
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