CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/01/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003776
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 9, 1954

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9 January 1954
Copy No. 84
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. ....
; DECLASSIFIED
. CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 26 col
AUTH: HR 70-2(is
DATE: t c.) . REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Captured documents reveal Viet Minh underground in Thailand
(page 3).
2. Indonesia threatens action in New Guinea (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Ambassador Caffery outlines probable course of Egyptian
neutralism (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. American embassy in Paris comments on French Indochina policy
(page 4).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
. Captured documents reveal Viet Minh underground in Thailand:
Documents seized in north-
eastern Thailand definitely
establish that a Viet Minh underground in
Thailand is controlled from Indochina. One
document
"instructed the Viet Minh in Thailand to increase
assistance to "military units stationed nearby" through the provision of
arms, recruits, and intelligence on Thai military dispositions. It con-
tained an order to commence resistance "on hearing the sound of battle,"
and stated that "the battle to liberate all Vietnamese brothers will start
soon."
Comment: Thailand quickly declared a state
of emergency in 12 northeastern provinces after the 25 December Viet
Minh thrust to the Mekong River. There is no firm indication that the
Viet Minh intends an early uprising among the 60,000 Vietnamese in
northeast Thailand but the presence of an organized underground among
them is a continuing threat to Thai security.
2. Indonesia threatens action in New Guinea:
In expressing dissatisfaction over the "sub-
versive activities" of Dutch nationals in
Indonesia, the Indonesian foreign minister
told the American ambassador on 8 January
that Dutch intransigence regarding New Guinea was such that Indonesia
might have to solve the problem unilaterally. He added that Indonesia
might also be forced to abrogate the union with the Netherlands.
Comment: Indonesian officials have fre-
quently complained of official or unofficial Dutch encouragement of
dissident elements in Indonesia. There is no prospect of the Nether-
lands yielding its claim to New Guinea, but Dutch officials are resigned
to the abrogation of the union with Indonesia.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Ambassador Caffery outlines probable course of Egyptian neutralism:
Ambassador Caffery believes that Egypt's
"new foreign policy," in the event that
negotiations with Britain fail, may include
expanded trade with the Orbit and early recog-
nition of Communist China, East Germany and
Albania.
Caffery expects that Egypt will try to assume
"spiritual leadership" of African nationalism and to consolidate its posi-
tion in the Arab world in order to undermine Western interests in the
area. He says there will be organized harassment against British troops
in the canal zone, but no suicidal attacks.
Caffery concludes that "it is anyone's guess"
how much of the above policy will be implemented.
WESTERN EUROPE
4. American embassy in Paris comments on French Indochina policy:
The American embassy in Paris expects the
outcome of the current military campaign to
determine future French policy in Indochina
and the end of thepresent fighting season to
bring an over-all review of France's position.
The embassy believes that if the military
situation remains the same for three to six months, political pressure
for a negotiated settlement will increase. The embassy feels, however,
that "until some additional important development occurred to precipi-
tate a decision," no parliamentary majority could face the consequences
of negotiations with the Viet Minh and the present situation would con-
tinue.
Should Navarre regain the initiative, political
and public pressure for negotiations would be reduced in direct propor-
tion to the extent of French victories. If the Viet Minh obtains signifi-
cant military successes, France may be expected to seek Allied troop
reinforcement as an alternative to negotiations which might appear as
a Viet Minh victory.
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