CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/01/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003778
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 12, 1954

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TOIXS1eITET
12 January 1954
Copy No. 84
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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AUTH: HR 70-2 itk
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Bohlen believes Korean settlement unlikely (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. India may return prisoners prior to 23 January deadline (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French believe Viet Minh moves show desire to negotiate (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Zahedi confident of controlling new Majlis (page 5).
5. Iraqi premier favors aid to Pakistan (page 5).
6. Nun i Said undermining Iraqi cabinet (page 6).
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GENERAL
1. Bohlen believes Korean settlement unlikely:
Ambassador Bohlen believes "it is unlikely
that any major agreements will be achieved"
on Korea's future at a Korean political con-
ference, that in all probability the present
demarcation line between North and South Korea will become the fron-
tier, and that it is therefore not essential to press for Soviet attendance.
Regarding Sino-Soviet relations, Bohlen
feels that there probably is a good deal of "oriental maneuvering,"
especially on Korea.
Comment: The adamant position of the
Communist negotiators at Panmunjom suggests a desire to avoid
serious negotiations for a settlement at this time.
While China's increased influence in North
Korea creates a basis for possible Sino-Soviet friction, Moscow and
Peiping appear to have reached an agreement on their respective roles
in North Korea.
FAR EAST
2. India may return prisoners prior to 23 January deadline:
Krishna Menon told Ambassador Allen on
9 January that Prime Minister Nehru has
decided that the Indian forces in Korea must
relinquish custody of the prisoners "on or
before 23 January." Menon stated that by returning the prisoners be-
fore that date, India would avoid responsibility for retaining them after
the period of neutral custodianship ends or of declaring them civilians.
Allen comments that Menon is solely concerned
with finding a solution which will not unduly alarm Peiping.
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Comment: India is greatly concerned
that violence will occur in Effe�p-rTiOn compounds on and after 23
January, even if the prisoners are released, and apparently wants
to avoid the onus for bloodshed by releasing them earlier.
India's release of the anti-Communist
�
prisoners before 23 January would make the United Nations vulnerable
to a charge of participation in a truce violation and would add substance
to Communist charges that the armistice terms were not being carried
out. The number of pro-Communist prisoners held by the Indians is
small enough so that they could all be released on that date.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French believe Viet Minh moves show desire to negotiate:
The office of the French commissioner
general in Saigon believes the propaganda
themes at Wet Minh meetings during Decem-
ber demonstrate that recent peace feelers
are not mere propaganda, but show a genuine desire to negotiate.
Themes cited are France's internal weakness, contradictions in the
"imperialist camp," international developments favorable to the
"democratic camp," and the denial of "hostile propaganda" that the
Viet Minh's weakness is forcing it to negotiate.
It believes the central Laos invasion was
designed to convince the French of the futility of resistance, and notes
that the Viet Minh's recent release of prisoners was accompanied by
propaganda emphasizing its desire to create an atmosphere of friend-
ship with the French people.
Comment: All the themes listed are
routine in Viet Minh propaganda but serious peace overtures are
always a possibility.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Zahedi confident of controlling new Majlis:
Prime Minister Zahedi told Ambassador
Henderson on 7 January that he expects
his government to win an "overwhelming
victory" in the elections without being com-
pelled to resort to "undue pressures."
Zahedi said that about 40 of the 136 government-
backed candidates would give him wholehearted support, 40 would not be
trustworthy in times of stress, and the remainder, except for a few dema-
gogues, would generally support the government. He believes the govern-
ment can obtain an oil settlement and domestic reforms with such a Majlis.
Zahedi said he does not like many of the govern-
ment's candidates, but he is committed politically to some while others are
very strong in their own communities and cannot be ignored.
Comment: The government's candidates repre-
sent little improvement over deputies in earlier parliaments. Several are
notoriously corrupt and many were obviously chosen because of their
friendship for Zahedi or the shah rather than their ability. Although the
government may be able to control the new Majlis, most of the deputies
will place personal gain before national welfare.
5. Iraqi premier favors aid to Pakistan:
���0�66.
Iraq's Prime Minister Jamali has refused the
advice of the Indian minister in Baghdad that
the Asian nations oppose US military aid to
Pakistan, according to Ambassador Berry.
jamali told the minister that because of its oil resources and key stra-
tegic position, which expose the country to attack, Iraq could not ignore
the defense problem. He advised India to settle its differences with
Pakistan, to arm itself, and cooperate with other Asian nations in build-
ing up a defense against any external attack.
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jamali added that he might visit Karachi
sometime next month, since he had been invited by the Pakistani
prime minister to do so.
Comment: Iraq's position, as well as
those of _Ceylon and Afghanis al�F7,�r-jfutes India's claim of widespread
Asian disapproval of American military aid for Pakistan.
Nun i Said undermining Iraqi cabinet:
Former prime minister Nun i Said appears
to be undermining Iraqi prime minister
Jamali, according to the American embassy
in Baghdad. Nun i is pressing for the dissolu-
tion of all political parties, though this would probably provoke demon-
strations, and his followers in parliament are blocking Jamalits reform
bills.
Nun i has told the British ambassador that he
has little confidence in Iamali and that grave disturbances in the country
are likely because of student, Communist and subversive activities.
Comment: Supported by the king and the
crown prince but faced with opposition from Nun i Said, Jamali is rendered
politically impotent.
Politically-inspired disturbances may be used
to remove Jamali at any time. Interested in Western defense plans, he
represents a faint hope for basic reform.
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