CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/01/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03003779
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 13, 1954

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 2 2
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
H DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE ..Q..9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:: 4 1REVIEWER:
Copy No,
84
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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Imo 1 IN,Ls A
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. USSR insists on alternate conference sessions in East Berlin
(page 3).
2. Soviet ambassador adopts rude attitude toward Iranian foreign
minister (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Troop movements reported north of Panmunjom (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Comment on new Vietnamese cabinet (page 4).
5. French believed able to meet air supply requirements in Indochina
(page 5).
6. French intelligence inadequate in Indochina (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Turkey willing to assume initiative in military aid to Pakistan
(page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Djilas accused of political deviation (page 7).
9. East Berlin being "dressed up" for conference (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Fanfani's chances of forming a new Italian government (page 8).
11. Sherman tank engines possibly shipped to Orbit from Italy (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. USSR insists on alternate conference sessions in East Berlin:
Soviet representative Dengin at the third
preparatory meeting in Berlin on 11 Jan-
uary reiterated that meetings of the four-
power conference must be held alternately
in the East and West sectors. American officials in Berlin believe
that if this principle is accepted, Dengin will yield readily on the
location of the first meeting and the specific site of meetings in the
Soviet sector.
Comment: Soviet emphasis on this one
issue suggests that prestige is the primary concern of the Kremlin.
It is probably not deliberately trying to postpone the conference, but
a continued stalemate might delay technical preparations so that it
could not start by 25 January.
2. Soviet ambassador adopts rude attitude toward Iranian foreign minister:
Soviet ambassador Lavrentiev has been
increasingly rude during recent discussions
of Iranian government policies, according
to Foreign Minister Entezam. Lavrentiev
registered "bland incredulity" when told that Iran is not participating
in a Middle East pact, which he insisted had been promoted by the
United States. Lavrentiev then asked Entezam whether he was speak-
ing officially.
Lavrentiev said he knew that American
representatives were planting articles in the Iranian press. Entezam
replied that the United States was not endeavoring to undermine rela-
tions between Iran and the USSR. Lavrentiev stated flatly, "I do not
believe you."
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Comment: Soviet propaganda in recent
weeks has been particularly concerned with the possible formation
of a Western-oriented Middle Eastern defense arrangement which
might ultimately include Iran.
Lavrentiev's "rude" approach may presage
a shift in Soviet conciliatory tactics toward Iran.
FAR EAST
3. Troop movements reported north of Panmunjom:
General Thimayya informed American
representative Young on 11 January that
he has noticed considerable movement of
troops just outside the demilitarized zone
north of Panmunjom.
Thimayya was unable to evaluate these
observations, but indicated he did not believe the Communists would
attempt to block the release of the prisoners. He thinks they will do
no more than "make propaganda," and perhaps try to stir up panic
and riots and cause some casualties.
Comment: There are indications that
the Chinese Communist 46th Army may have withdrawn recently
from the front just northeast of Panmunjom, and the reported troop
movements may represent a readjustment of Communist forces in
that area. While the Communists have the capability of forcibly
seizing the prisoners, it is doubtful that the issue is important
enough for them to risk a renewal of the war by such action.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Comment on new Vietnamese cabinet:
The cabinet formed on 11 January by
Prince Buu Loc is much the strongest that Vietnam has yet had.
As a group, the ministers have had much more political experience
and are more representative geographically than any previous cabinet.
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Nee
Conspicuously absent are representatives
of various politico-religious and strong-arm factions which were
accorded undue importance in the past. For the first time, also,
naturalized French citizens are no longer in the majority. With
his cousin Buu Loc as premier and minister of the interior, and
with Nguyen De, his former aide, as minister without portfolio,
Bao Dai will exert a much more direct influence over the govern-
ment than in the past.
The new cabinet can be expected to press
vigorously but tactfully for greater concessions from France and at
the same time strongly to resist any suggestion of negotiations with
the Viet Minh.
5. French believed able to meet air supply requirements in Indochina:
The American army attach�n Saigon
believes the French will be able to meet
all air supply requirements for Dien Bien
Phu and the various bases in Laos for a
period of two weeks should they be under
ithitIti� attack. ,After that, lack of crews and maintenance
personnel, but not a lack of planes, would reduce the French capa-
bility. The attach�oints out that the Viet Minh lacks the capability
for sustained heavy combat.
The attach�lso notes that effective
employment of enemy antiaircraft weapons at Dien Bien Phu, in-
cluding 37mm guns, would greatly restrict transport activity.
He believes, however, that the French can neutralize the few Viet
Minh antiaircraft weapons believed to be in the area.
. French intelligence inadequate in Indochina:
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The attach�eports that French agent
nets have been ineffective and that friendly guerrilla forces are
only fair sources of intelligence on the Viet Minh. He notes a
continuing lack of aggressiveness by field commanders in obtaining
combat intelligence by patrolling.
Comment The French admit that their
Intelligence on enemy movements is sparse and that this fact pre-
vents them from making the most effective use of their reserves.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Turkey willing to assume initiative in military aid to Pakistan:
In a note to the American embassy in
Ankara, the Turkish government has
expressed readiness to "prepare the
ground" for military aid to Pakistan
and t ik�ethTtiauve in trying to conclude a Turkish-Pakistani
agreement. This decision is based on Turkish friendship for
Pakistan and the belief that such aid would increase effective re-
sistance against the Soviet threat. Turkey hopes that such an
agreement will be "a landmark in the organization of the defense
of the Middle East."
The note examines in detail the reaction
of neighboring countries to the proposed arrangement. Iran is not
considered ripe for such aid and Iraq is not believed to be politically
firm, but neither is ruled out of eventual participation. Reaction in
India and Afghanistan is not thought to be an insurmountable obstacle.
Turkey is particularly anxious, however, not to offend Afghanistan.
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%ad J. N.-, J.
Comment: The Turkish decision is
added evidence of the position of regional military leadership
which that country has repeatedly sought, and the Turkish analysis
of reaction in neighboring states appears to be sound.
Afghanistan has recently indicated that
it does not oppose American aid to Pakistan.
EASTERN EUROPE
8. Djilas accused of political deviation:
ieaaing member of the central com-
mittee told a meeting of Yugoslav Com-
munists on 9 January that recent articles
by Vice President Djilas exceed the bounds of ideological controversy
and represent a definite political deviation.
He asserted that Djilas has fallen under
the influence of the Bevanite brand of West European socialism, and
has taken an unacceptable stand toward the central committee by
ignoring the advice of its members and "refusing to see the illusion
in his ideas."
Comment: The serious accusations being
made against him in the Yugoslav press suggest strongly that Djilas
has fallen from his position of high prestige and authority within the
Yugoslav party. Current charges that his articles have "curried
favor with the convinced anti-Marxists" suggest the possibility that
he may be removed from the party altogether.
The fall of Djilas would constitute the
first serious breach in the apparently solid and stable Yugoslav
inner party circle since 1948. Although ideological developments
are doubtless involved, the tightly knit nature of Tito's staff and the
suddenness with which the crisis has developed suggest that personal
rather than ideological differences may have sparked the present
dispute.
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LVLs A.
9. East Berlin being "dressed up" for conference:
"Huge quantities" of food and textile
goods are being brought from the USSR
and Satellites into the Soviet sector of
Berlin for sale and display during the
four-power conference, according to
army Iicia1s in uermany, Instructions have been issued to state-
owned stores and consumer cooperatives to display goods promi-
nently and create the appearance of plenty.
A less reliable report claimed that false
brick fronts were being constructed to cover the ruins along the main
thoroughfares of central Berlin.
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Fanfani's chances of forming a new Italian government:
Italian premier-designate Amintore
Fanfani, 46-year-old member of the Christian Democratic Party's
left wing, will probably encounter considerable difficulty in forming
a cabinet and gaining parliamentary approval. Controversy over
his nominees will be a greater handicap than policy disputes.
Should he succeed in forming a govern-
ment, its life is likely to be rough and brief. It would still be con-
sidered a caretaker government until new elections are held, and
therefore would be unlikely to initiate any major legislation.
Fanfani, interior minister in the all-
Christian Democratic cabinet of Premier Pella, has announced his
intention to bring into the government the Monarchists as well as the
three minor center parties. Fanfani, to a greater extent than Pella,
has his party's support and would therefore be able to compromise
more successfully with the right, particularly if he refrained from
pushing a leftist reform program.
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11. Sherman tank engines possibly shipped to Orbit from Italy:
The American embassy in Rome believes
that at least part of a planned shipment of
40 Sherman tank engines to France for sub-
sequent diversion to the Orbit may already
have left Italy. V
The Italian Foreign Ministry then revealed
that a license had been issued for the shipment of eight engines to a
consignee in Paris for the French navy. Later the embassy learned
that the French navy had not ordered them.
The Italian firm involved is a suspected
diverter of automobile parts and is believed to have close connections
Comment: The shipment of tank components
to the bloc is forbidden by COCOM regulations and would also be contrary
to the provisions of the Battle Act./
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