CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/03/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03004633
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: March 1, 1955

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1 March 1955
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
Cp
NO CHANGE IN CLASS A
D DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE 2-0 I Q.
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: .5 10 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Comment on the Japanese election (page 3).
2. South Korea may renew agitation to dissolve NNSC (page 3).
3. Taipei moves to strengthen defenses in Matsu island group (page 4).
4. Comment on release of American nationals from Communist
China (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Viet Minh utilizing tanks in specialized support division (page 5).
6. General Ely criticizes Sainteny policy (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Saudi bitterness over Iraqi-Turkish pact imperils Dhahran air base
agreement (page 6).
8. Comment on the struggle for control of Syria (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Comment on prospects for meeting of foreign ministers of Balkan
pact powers (page 8).
LATE ITEM
10. Comment on Soviet ministerial shake-up (page 8).
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FAR EAST
1. Comment on the Japanese election:
The outlook for the next government of
Japan is for a continuation of the politi-
cal instability which characterized the
latter days of the Yoshida administration. Prime Minister Hato-
yama is expected to form a cabinet made up entirely of Demo-
crats, which will leave his minority government at the mercy of
the Liberal and the Socialist opposition. Disagreements among
the Democrats and Hatoyama's frail health make it likely that the
government will be a transitional one.
With the election over, the overriding
importance to Japan of maintaining good relations with the United
States will probably reassert itself. The government is expected
to seek a peace treaty with the Soviet Union, Poland, and Czecho-
slovakia, but to limit its relations with Peiping to an expansion of
trade and cultural contacts, probably including an exchange of
trade missions. It will adhere to, but seek a reduction in, export
controls on shipments to the Orbit.
The gain of 21 seats by the Socialists may
encourage the government to take action against the growing threat
from the left. While the Socialists now have enough seats to block
any constitutional amendment, existing legislation probably can be
utilized to control political activity in labor and education, both
leftist strongholds.
2. South Korea may renew agitation to dissolve NNSC:
The South Korean government indicated
it would renew efforts to
aissoive tne Neutral Nations Supervisory
Commission (NNSC).
Seoul said that "if the commission is not
dissolved immediately, the South Korean government will take ac-
tion in defense of our security."
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Nov' NINO
Stating that South Korea could not permit
further Communist obstruction of inspections in North Korea or
"Communist spies in the demilitarized zone,"
that Washington be urged to declare the armistice officially ended.
Comment: The NNSC on 1 March was to
send mobile teams into severalSouth Korean areas to examine
Communist charges of UN truce violations. UN officials point out
that most of the installations to be inspected are under exclusive
South Korean control and fear that the South Koreans may react
violently.
South Korean violence or agitation against
the NNSC would probably upset current negotiations begun by Swit-
zerland and Sweden to reduce the number of NNSC personnel and
possibly to restrict them to the demilitarized zone.
3. Taipei moves to strengthen defenses in Matsu island group:
The Chinese Nationalists are sending a
full-strength infantry division to bolster
defenses in the Matsu island group, ac-
cording to a report from General Chase,
chief of MAAG on Formosa. The firsi elements of the new divi-
sion were due to arrive in the islands on 28 February.
Mother move to increase the strength
of the Matsus is a shake-up of the present defense command,
called "not too strong" by Chase. The gradual evacuation of 11,0000
civilians now living on the islands is "probably" included in new
defense plans.
Comment: The unit being sent to the
Matsus is the American-trained-and-equipped 84th Division. Its
arrival will bring more than 11,000 new regular troops to the
Matsus, now held by about 4,000, regulars and 1,500 guerrillas.
Regular troops now on the Matsus will be redeployed to Quemoy
after the 84th Division arrives.
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4. Comment on release of American nationals from Communist China:
The release from Communist China on
27 February of two American nationals,
after 43 months' imprisonment on espi-
onage charges, may presage the early
freeing of some others of the approximately 55 Americans whom
Peiping admits holding.
The Chinese Communists were previously
reported as seeking means of countering the unfavorable publicity
surrounding the case of the 11 American airmen and two civilians
sentenced as "spies" last November. The two Americans just
freed appear to have been good choices for this purpose. Both
have been emphatically pro-Communist in their public statements
since their release and in particular defended Chinese Communist
behavior toward imprisoned Americans.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Viet Minh utilizing tanks in specialized support division:
The Viet Minh has formed a "Support
Division 305" having tanks, artillery,
and engineer elements,
The American army attach�omments that
the Viet Minh places great emphasis on its wartime experiences,.
especially at Dien Bien Phu, in the development of tactical doctrine
and unit training. The formation of this highly mobile reinforcing
division may be a result of these studies.
Comment: The possession of tanks, in
clear violation of the Geneva agreement, marks a further step in
the Viet Minh's continually improving military capabilities. It
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is a logical development in the modernization program of the Viet
Minh army which has been pursued vigorously with the help of
illicit materiel from China since the cease-fire.
6. General Ely criticizes Sainteny policy:
General Ely stated that he was very much
afraid that the negotiations conducted by
Sainteny are not of such a nature as to
inspire a feeling of security among the
people whom the Manila pact directly concerns. He added a feel-
ing of security is necessary for economic and social progress.
Comment: General Ely has been critical
of Sainteny's policy and has told American officials that he has so
informed Paris.
Prior to Faure's investitures, a French
spokesman stated that any French government would pursue the
Sainteny policy.
American embassy in Paris that Ely would be replaced as com-
missioner general before the end of May.
NEAR EAST - .AFRICA
70 Saudi bitterness over Iraqi-Turkish pact imperils Dhahran air base
agreement:
Ambassador Wadsworth in Jidda believes
that Saudi Arabia's bitterness over the
conclusion of the Iraqi-Turkish defense
pact endangers future Saudi-American
relations. He fears that King Saud will soon raise the question of
the American air base at Dhahran.
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Foreign Minister Faisal:told Wadsworth
on 23 February that "we have lost confidence in the West," which is
destroying Arab unity in the interest of Israel. The Saudi defense
minister similarly criticized American policy.
Comment: The Dhahran agreement runs un-
til June 1956 and is subject to renewal. However, Faisal has been
quoted as having told the Arab ministers in Cairo that "we can termi-
nate it at any time." The Saudis, in their present mood, may try
to carry out this threat, although the treaty does not permit cancel-
lation before June 1956.
8. Comment on the struggle for control of Syria:
The domestic situation in Syria has been
deteriorating rapidly. The leftist-tinged
Asali government and its conservative foes
each suspects the other of planning to
stage a military coup with foreign assist-
ance.
Asali's government--which is hostile to
Iraq, Britain, and the United States�believes that the Iraqi-Turkish
pact is an Iraqi device for effecting a political union with Syria.
Syrian conservatives, who tend to favor
Iraq, Britain, and the United States, believe that France is help-
ing Shuqayr plan an open seizure of power. Syrians
have expressed alarm to American officials over the leftist, anti-
Western orientation of Syrian foreign minister Azm and his extreme
Socialist and Communist supporters.
For the first time since the overthrow of
dictator Shishakli a year ago, the atmosphere in Syria has become
favorable for a coup from either the left or right. The increasing
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involvement of other countries in Syria's internal affairs may
hasten such a development.
EASTERN EUROPE
9. Comment on prospects for meeting of foreign ministers of Balkan
pact powers:
The nature of the preparations for the
Balkan alliance, foreign ministers' meet-
ing which opened in Ankara on 28 February
suggests that none of the three participat-
ing countries foresees significant results. Various Yugoslav state-
ments that the alliance should not become a tool of "foreign combi-
nations" rule out much progress toward firmer NATO connections.
The Turks have devoted little time to
preparations because of their preoccupation with the Turkish-
Iraqi pact. The Turkish ambassador in Belgrade thinks that noth-
ing more than a declaration of general principles followed by more
negotiations will result from the meeting.
The Yugoslays appear to be laying the
groundwork for blaming Turkey for any lack of progress in the
talks. A member of the Yugoslav delegation to Ankara told Amer-
ican officials that the Turks are not pulling their weight and have
lost interest in the affiance because of overextension of their
interests in the Middle East.
LATE ITEM
10. Comment on Soviet ministerial shake-up:
Radio Moscow announced on 28 February
that A.. I. Mikoyan, M. Z. Saburov, and
M. G. Pervukhin had been promoted from
deputy chairmen to first deputy chairmen of the USSR Council of
Ministers. The promotion of Mikoyan, one of the most prominent
spokesmen for the consumers' goods program, and Saburov, long
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believed to be a Malenkov associate, indicates the continuing ex-
istence in top Soviet circles of political forces not under Khrushchev's
complete control.
The promotion of these men does not, how-
ever, shed any light on Malenkov's status and leaves him as the only
party presidium member with a government position below that of
first deputy premier. It places him below such previously low-
ranking presidium members as Pervukhin and Saburov.
Radio Moscow also announced the appoint-
ment of four new deputy premiers--A. P. Zavenyagin, V. A. Kuch-
erenko, P. P. Lobanov, and M. V. Khrunichev.
A. P. Zavenyagin, a career MVD official
and a onetime deputy minister of the MVD, was also appointed min-
ister of medium machine building, relieving V. A. Malyshev, who
apparently retains his position as deputy premier and will super-
vise a group of ministries in the machine building field. The fact
that Zavenyagin is one of the foremost administrators in the Soviet
atomic energy program strengthens previous indications that the
Ministry of Medium Machine Building probably has responsibility
for atomic energy.
V. A. Kucherenko, first deputy chairman
of the Moscow city executive committee, has made his career in
building construction in the Ukraine and the Moscow area under
Khrushchev.
P. P. Lobanov was formerly first deputy
chairman of the Council of Ministers of the RSFSR and minister of
agriculture of that republic.
M. V. Khrunichev served as USSR minis-
ter of the aviation industry from 1945 to 1953, when he became
first deputy minister of the armaments industry. In both these
posts he worked closely with Bulganin.
This move again emphasizes the impor-
tance of Soviet industrial and military preparedness, widens the
circle of top leaders, and confirms the continuing influence within
this top circle of the industrial and central planning specialists.
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