CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006374
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 24, 1954

r pproved for Release: 2019/08/02C03006374'
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24 April 1954 C
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. tecS
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE 1r2.3
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: er4., REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Soviet diplomats say Korean troop withdrawal must be first on
Geneva aaenda (page 3).
2.
3. Tito seen moving closer to West (page 4).
4. Tito may offer nonaggression pact to Italy (page 5).
SOVIET UNION
5. Soviet government may propose multilateral clearing plan for East-
West trade (page 5).
6. Chinese pilots warned to avoid Soviet-Manchurian border (page 6).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
7. French assess military outlook in Indochina (page 8).
8. Cambodian defense minister says Viet Minh could take over in a
week (page 8).
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p.
GENERAL
1. Soviet diplomats say Korean troop withdrawal must be first on Geneva
agenda:
2.
Soviet diplomats told
officer in Washington on 21 April that the
question of the withdrawal of forces from
Korea must be first on the Geneva agenda
and must be settled first. They said this would be in accord with the
Panmunjom discussions on the agenda for the Korea political conference.
Comment: There is no reason to believe
that the Communists will insist that the troop withdrawal issue be settled
before the Indochina question is taken up. Communist spokesmen have
repeatedly discounted the importance of the Korean phase and have indi-
cated that their math effort will be aimed at the Indochina question.
Apart from any unification plan, the Com-
munists may offer a formula for the withdrawal of foreign forces with-
out including adequate enforcement provisions, such as inspection, in
the hope of embarrassing the United Nations side. Such a proposal
would also be designed to cause friction between the United States and
the South Korean government, which insists on the withdrawal of Chinese
Communist troops prior to unification and before the withdrawal of United
Nations forces.
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3. Tito seen moving closer to West:
Turkish foreign under secretary Birgi told
Ambassador Warren on 22 April that Marshal
Tito's talks with Turkish leaders from 12
through 15 April showed marked progress
e readjustmentof Yugoslav ideas and attitudes toward the West and
a willingness to go much further in collaboration.
Birgi said that Tito felt enough progress had
been made in the Balkan Pact relationship to warrant transforming it
into an alliance, and would propose during his 27 May visit to Greece
that the three powers' foreign ministers meet in Belgrade in the latter
half of June to formalize a military alliance. Tito did not feel that
Greek and Turkish obligations to NATO constituted a real obstacle.
Birgi stated that the Turks were in essential agreement on transforming
the pact into an alliance.
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%FA I. A.
Tito pointed out that he had no desire to
join NATO, since it was more advantageous for Yugoslavia to remain
outside, especially because of the effect of its "independence" on the
Satellites. He believed that Yugoslavia's special situation could be
adequately recognized in working out collaboration with NATO.
4. Tito may offer nonaggression pact to Italy:
Marshal Tito is contemplating offering
Italy a nonaggression pact, whether or not
Rome desires to join the Balkan Pact, ac-
cording to Turkish officials with whom he
talked last week. Tito favors Italian adherence to the Balkan Pact,
subject only to assurances against further irredentism and a readjust-
ment of Italo-Yugoslav diplomatic and commercial relations after a
Trieste settlement.
Tito expressed satisfaction with the London
talks on Trieste, stating that agreement had practically been reached,
with only a few secondary points left unsettled. He seemed confident
that Italy would accept this solution.
Comment: Tito has alleged willingness,
in various diplomatic conversations, to develop closer relations with
Italy, but the attitudes expressed to the Turks appear more conciliatory
than in the past.
SOVIET UNION
5. Soviet government may propose multilateral clearing plan for East-
West trade:
conference,
a "war scare" in Western trading circles.
- 5 -
The Soviet Union has ordered negotiations
for goods purchased through Western Euro-
pean middlemen to cease until after the Geneva
This is said to have caused
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NayIL I. 4.
the
USSR has also been sounding out Western European reaction to a pro-
posal to establish a multilateral clearing plan connected with the Euro-
pean Payments Union and may make such a proposal at Geneva.
Comment: No such "war scare" has been
reported by any other source.
Reduction in the placing of Soviet orders
through Western brokers would be a logical forerunner to direct East-
West trade talks, under way in Geneva since March, and to the pending
revision of trade controls. This relaxation will permit expansion of
Soviet procurement directly from Western producing firms at more
favorable prices.
In March, the Soviet delegate to the UN's
ECE trade meeting called for negotiation on long-term multilateral
trade agreements with Western countries, most of which have reacted
negatively. The next step in the Soviet trade drive may well be a formal
proposal for a clearing system which would make such trade arrangements
practicable.
6. Chinese pilots warned to avoid Soviet-Manchurian border:
Chinese civil aircraft carrying out forest
reconnaissance flights in the area must not encroach on the border
(see map, p. 7). The border near Nenchiang was described as "extra-
ordinary" and pilots were warned not to violate the "national laws" or
immediate "legal action" would be taken.
Comment: An artillery testing range is
located near Blagoveshchensk and there is a Soviet military concentra-
tion, which includes airborne formations, in the general area. The
description of the border area near Nenchiang as "extraordinary" sug-
gests that other more sensitive Soviet installations or activities are also
located in the vicinity.
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