CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006375
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 25, 1954

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25 April 1954
Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
L I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: _..2i2o9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:�:9 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
ge+P
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
NVAI .1
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Comment on Nehru's "peace plan" for Indochina (page 3).
2. East Germany sending delegation to Geneva (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
3. Two IL-28's depart Provideniya for Petropavlovsk (page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Conservative members of Japanese Diet to attend Communist
meeting at Stockholm (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Navarre sees need for full American intervention in Indochina
(page 5).
6. Tonkin governor gloomy on delta situation (page 6).
7. French express deep concern ovei Cambodian situation (page 7).
EASTERN EUROPE
8.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. French official offers new proposals to break Saar deadlock
(page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Comment on Nehru's "peace plan" for Indochina:
Prime Minister Nehru has probably offered
his five-point plan to end the Indochina war
primarily to forestall a Western-sponsored
security pact for Southeast Asia. The putting
forward of the plan also represents an
effort to compensate for India's absence
from Geneva.
Nehru's first point�establishment of a
"climate of peace"--is directed against the American call for "united
action" in Indochina. The other four points--immediate cease-fire;
immediate end of French sovereignty; direct negotiations among France,
the Associated States, and the Viet Minh; and a non-intervention agree-
ment among the United States, Britain, Communist China and the USSR--
are probably designed not only to end the war but also to exclude the
major powers from India's "peace area" and thus pave the way for an
expansion of New Delhi's sphere of influence.
While this plan is not expected to elicit
support from the Western powers at Geneva, the Soviet Union may
well attempt to exploit certain of its elements.
Nehru can be expected, however, to raise
this plan at the Colombo conference opening 28 April. Prime Minister
Kotelawala told the American ambassador on 23 April that Nehru was
applying great pressure to get Ceylon to join India in a policy calling
on both the� Communists and the West to "keep hands off Asia."
2. East Germany sending delegation to Geneva:
The East German government press office
announced on 23 April that a delegation
headed by Deputy Foreign Minister Handke
would go to the Geneva conference. A
declaration issued by the East German
government at the same time demanded
the return of all Germans fighting in
Indochina.
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Comment: It has been reliably reported that
the delegation will present to the foreign ministers of the big powers a
memorandum calling for a new conference on Europe in which West and
East Germany would participate. Such a proposal would have a certain
appeal among anti-EDC elements in Western Europe if presented by
another Satellite state, for example, Poland, but it is doubtful that an
East German memorandum will be very effective except as a contri-
bution to the evidence supporting East Germany's claim to sovereignty.
The declaration demanding the return of
Germans in Indochina indicates that East Germany may use the presence
of Germans in the French Foreign Legion as a pretext for g4nin ad-
mission to the Indochina discussions at the-conference.
SOVIET UNION
3. Two IL-28's depart Provideniya for Petropavlovsk:
two IL-28 jet light bombers flew from
Provideniya to Anadyr on 21 April, and were
scheduled to continue to Petropavlovsk on
23 April.
These IL-28's are believed to be the same
two which have been noted active in the Chukotsk since 13 March,
and which made flights to Cape Schmidt and Wrangel Island,
Comment: The departure of the 1L-28's
suggests the ending of the unique jet activity at Cape Schmidt and
Wrangel Island�the terminal points of a recent unprecedented airlift--
and the return, of the IL-28's to their long range reconnaissance regi-
ment based on Sakhalin.
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FAR EAST
4. Conservative members of Japanese Diet to attend Communist meeting
at Stockholm:
A large number of Japanese Diet members,
including 15 to 20 conservatives, plan to accept
invitations to the Communist-sponsored
"World Council of Peace" tentatively
scheduled for Stockholm in June, according to Ambassador Allison.
While the conservatives are aware that their presence will be ex-
ploited by the Communists, they believe the trip will give them first-
hand information on conditions in Communist China and the Soviet Union
with which to .counter the leftists in Japan.
In order to minimize Communist exploitation,
the conservative Diet members intend to work as a group, avoid publi-
city, and, if necessary, issue a statement that they do not support the
meeting' s objectives.
Comment: Since the recent successful
repatriation program, the Japanese have become increasingly receptive
to friendly Soviet overtures for closer economic and cultural ties
pending the re-establishment of diplomatic relations.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Navarre sees need for full American intervention in Indochina:
General Navarre told the American charg�
in Saigon on 23 April that either the war
in Indochina must end by a negotiated
peace, or else it must be internationalized
and American infantry brought in. He pointed out that when the battle
at Dien Bien Phu was over the enemy would be in a greatly weakened
condition, but neither France, nor Vietnam had the strength to strike
the rapid blow essential to take advantage of that fact.
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Navarre said the situation at Dien Bien Phu
was desperate. There were 600 gravely wounded, another 2,000 also
were wounded but able to fight, and still others were suffering from
battle fatigue. Of 9,000 effectives under De Castries, only 3,000 were
at present combat worthy. Navarre thought, however, that it was
militarily more advantageous for the garrison to fight to the end, rather
than to risk an attempt to send a relief column.
In conclusion, Navarre emphasized the
necessity that the Geneva conference be brief. He said, "If the
conference lasts three months, I cannot foretell what might happen
here."
6. Tonkin governor gloomy on delta situation:
Governor Tri of Tonkin told the American
consulate in Hanoi on 23 April that the
losses being suffered by paramilitary
forces in the delta because of a lack of arms
might soon force him to disband these groups. He emphasized that
this would amount to handing the delta over to the Viet Minh,
French Union forces still in the delta were
exhausted by continuous action, he said. He saw as an immediate
necessity the effective arming of the paramilitary forces and the
transfer to the delta of French Union forces engaged in operation
Atlante in southern Annam.
A French official concurred in this estimate,
stating that the delta situation was at its most critical point. He said
that French Union forces now had only a tenuous hold on Hanoi-Haiphong
communications and beyond that held only those two cities and Nam Dinh.
Comment: The paramilitary forces, num-
bering approximately 27,000, are an important adjunct to French Union
forces in the delta. They have, however, been poorly armed and for
that reason a frequent target of Viet Minh irregulars.
There are 134,000 French and Vietnamese
regulars in the delta but the greater part of this number is tied down
in static defense, leaving the relatively few mobile units to counter
the increase in enemy activity.
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7. French express deep concern over Cambodian situation:
8.
Commissioner General Dejean sent an aide
t o the American embassy in Saigon on
23 April to express deep French concern at
t he rapid deterioration in Cambodia. The
French feel a coup dietat that would put the Viet Minh and the non-
Communist insurgent leader, Son Ngoc Thanh, in control of the kingdom
may be expected at any time.
Comment: French authorities in Saigon appear
to be more alarmist on Cambodia than those in Phnom Penh. The acting
high commissioner there said on 22 April that the situation was less
serious than the Cambodians described it when they appealed for arms.
Son Ngoc Thanh, the only important non-
Communist insurgent leader in Cambodia, is believed to have an
armed following of fewer than a thousand.
EASTERN EUROPE
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WESTERN EUROPE
9. French official offers new proposals to break Saar deadlock:
French deputy foreign minister Maurice
Schumann informed Ambassador Dillon in
Paris on 21 April that he had made new
proposals on the Saar to West German
foreign undersecretary Hallstein on 11 April in an effort to break
the deadlock between the technical experts. It was understood that
the experts were not to be told of these proposals.
Schumann expects Hallstein to inform him
privately this week end of Chancellor Adenauer's reactions and to
(offer German concessions which will enable French foreign minister
Bidault to meet Adenauer for a "finaLsoltition. " Schumann said that
the new French concessions are acceptable to Bidault and, he believes,
will also be to a majority of the French cabinet. They would be bitterly
attacked, however, by anti-EDC elements in the National Assembly.
Comment: In view of the substantial
German concessions made in March, before the present experts'
deadlock, the new French position appears sufficiently liberal to
clear the way for speedy agreement on the Saar when Bidault and
Adenauer meet again next month. Adenauer, however, still insists
that any agreement should become binding only after French ratifi-
cation of the EDC.
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