CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/27
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
03006376
Release Decision:
RIPPUB
Original Classification:
U
Document Page Count:
7
Document Creation Date:
August 20, 2019
Document Release Date:
August 30, 2019
Sequence Number:
Case Number:
Publication Date:
April 27, 1954
File:
Attachment | Size |
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15689645].pdf | 274.47 KB |
Body:
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Copy No. 7 3.5(c)
27 April 1954
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 40
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
L I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 00 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: zits, REVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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visor
Near
SUMMARY
GENERAL
I. Large-scale Chinese intervention in Indochina seen as future
possibility (page 3).
2. Ceylonese prime minister may support Nehru's Indochina
peace plan (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh may incite demonstrations in Hanoi (page 4).
4. Early surrender of Philippine Communist leader seen likely
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Comment on reactions to American-Iraqi military aid agreement
(page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Admitted military outlays level off in 1954 Satellite budgets
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Life of Laniel government seen dependent on American intervention
in Indochina (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Large-scale Chinese intervention in Indochina seen as future possibility:
The Peiping People's Daily, in commenting
on the Indochina situation on 21 April, said
that Communist China "will not take it lying
down if anyone else's armed aggression is
directed against us." The American consul
general at Hong Kong, in reporting this, recalls Chou En-lai's statement
just before the Chinese intervention in Korea that "the Chinese people
absolutely will not tolerate foreign aggression, nor will they tolerate
seeing their neighbors savagely invaded by imperialists."
The consul general concludes that direct,
large-scale Chinese intervention in Indochina seems very unlikely at
this time, but that it "could not be completely ruled out if American
participation were greatly increased."
Comment: There is an important difference
between current Chinese Communist statements and those made in
autumn 1950. At that time American "aggression" against China was
regarded as under way, whereas the Communists currently charge that
it is in the planning stage. Moreover, in October 1950 Chou En-lai
followed up Peiping's propaganda with an explicit warning through the
Indian ambassador.
All Communist comment on Indochina has
suggested that the Orbit hopes to avoid internationalization of the war
and to improve the position of the Viet Minh through maneuvers at the
Geneva conference. At the same time Communist China appears to be
preparing for possible failure on both counts, and thus for the possibility
of an eventual large-scale commitment of Chinese Communist forces.
2. Ceylonese prime minister may support Nehru's Indochina peace plan:
Prime Minister Kotelawala of Ceylon stated
in an interview published on 25 April that
fighting in Indochina could be ended and
French "colonialism" terminated without
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turning Vietnam over to the Communists, if the other Southeast Asian
nations would jointly guarantee the security of an independent Indochina.
This solution, according to Kotelawala, would remove Asian suspicion
that the West is still clinging to colonialism.
Comment: Kotelawala's statement implies
qualified support for the Indochina peace plan offered by Prime Minis-
ter Nehru on 24 April, as well as for a more detailed Indian scheme
published on 23 April. The latter envisages an agreement for an imme-
diate cease-fire and for partition--probably on the 16th parallel--plus a
five-year period during which the Colombo conference powers would en-
force the agreement.
Pakistan, Burma and Indonesia�the other
three conferees--might find it difficult to vote against such a plan. There
has as yet been no reaction from them to these proposals.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Wet Minh may incite demonstrations in Hanoi:
The Viet Minh may be planning to stir up
demonstrations in Hanoi on May Day or
19 May. Ho Chi Minh's birthday,
The demonstration would not be a "permanent uprising" but would take
the form of a "spontaneous public protest," possibly against the recent
Vietnamese mobilization decree. It would be calculated to embarrass
the Bao Dai government during the Geneva conference and to have a
psychological impact on the local populace.
Comment: The French have been expecting
an intensification of Viet Minh guerrilla activity in the delta, where
the enemy's infiltrated forces have not exerted their full capabilities.
Demonstrations and sabotage in Hanoi and Haiphong might be timed to
coincide with such a Viet Minh effort.
The Viet Minh has covert organizations in
both Hanoi and Saigon but has engaged in virtually no direct action
recently. Several years ago grenade-throwing, incitement of mob
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action, and assassinations were not uncommon. The dtmunition
of direct Viet Minh action reflects to some degree increased effi-
ciency of the Vietnamese police. Viet Minh capabilities, however,
are much greater than the absence of activity has indicated.
In view of the bitterness of Viet Minh
propaganda against American activities in Indochina, it is probable
that any demonstrations in the major cities would have a strong
anti-American flavor.
4. Early surrender of Philippine Communist leader seen likely:
early surrender of
Huk,leader Luis Taruc, after a prior guar-
antee of executive clemency from President
Magsaysay. Taruc is expected to try to dissociate himself from other
liuk leaders who would remain in the field with their arms.
after surrender-
ing, Taruc will probably organize a front group for the "legal"
activities of the Communist Party and will temporarily pretend to
support the Magsaysay government.
Comment: Earlier reports have sug-
gested that Taruc might surrender as part of a Communist maneuver
to establish a basis for open recruiting and propaganda activities
while a guerrilla force is retained as the nucleus of an army.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Comment on reactions to American-Iraqi military aid agreement:
There has been little Arab reaction as yet
to the American-Iraqi military grant aid
agreement of 21 April. Anti-Western ele-
ments in Iraq may, however, use the
25 April public announcement to exploit
the current government crisis on domestic
Issues. Iraq is the first Arab state to ac-
cept such assistance.
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Israel's prompt denouncement of the
agreement is in line with its usual strong opposition to the supply-
ing of arms to any Arab country.
The Iraqi allegation that aid has been of-
fered unconditionally may encourage Saudi Arabia, which has also
requested aid from the United States, to press for similar terms.
King Saud, who rejected a military aid draft last 3anuar3r on the
grounds that it threatened Saudi sovereignty, told Ambassador
Hildreth in Karachi on 23 April that Saudi Arabia would welcome
American help if it did not infringe on Saudi sovereignty.
Iraq's acceptance of American aid is likely
to be interpreted throughout the Middle East as an initial step toward
joining the Turkish-Pakistani pact. Opponents of such participation--
especially the Soviet Union, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Iraqi
extremists--will probably renew their efforts to delay Iraq's adher-
ence to that pact.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Admitted military outlays level off in 1954 Satellite budgets
The five Satellite annual budgets thus far
announced reveal that acknowledged mili-
tary expenditures are to level off in 1954
after the steady substantial increases of
earlier years.
Expenditures for defense budgeted under
the heading of "financing the national economy" are probably smaller
In 1954 than in prior years. The appropriation for this whole cate-
gory has increased less than usual, and within it much larger Invest-
ments have been budgeted for agriculture, consumer goods industries,
and fuel and power production.
These Satellites, having reached the
approximate level of their estimated postwar expansion, are appar-
ently foregoing further immediate military growth in order to focus
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on long-range economic development, with special emphasis on
raising output of agricultural products and manufactured consumer
goods.
The leveling off in the Satellite military
allocations parallels the trend in the Soviet Union.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Life of Laniel government seen dependent on American intervention
in Indochina:
Ambassador Dillon believes that the
Laniel government will fall soon unless
French requests for American armed inter-
vention in Indochina are met. He thinks
that Laniel's successor would be pledged to negotiate with Ho Chi Minh
and to withdraw French forces from Indochina.
Dillon believes, however, that if American
armed aid is provided--on the grounds that everything possible must
be done "to save or assist" the garrison at Dien Bien Phu--France
will continue the fight in Indochina regardless of the result of the Dien
Bien Phu battle.
Comment: Laniel has a good chance of
remaining in office while the Geneva conference is in session whether
or not American aid is forthcoming. Nevertheless, he would probably
respond to increased pressure for a settlement.
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