CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006381
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 8, 1954

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Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. .
L DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
MYTH: HR 70-2
DATE:45/M/7.9 REVIEWER: _
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
2. Chinese make first trade approach to West at Geneva (page 3).
FAR EAST
3.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Comment on fall of Dien Bien Phu (page 4).
5. Viet Minh 37mm AA guns reported north of Tonkin delta (page 5).
6.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Trial of Ana Pauker may be imminent (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. West Germans seek early American-British intervention in Saar
talks (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
9. Honduran government considers martial law as strike spreads
(page 7).
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GENERAL
1.
2. Chinese make first trade approach to West at Geneva:
there.
Lei Jen-min, vice minister of foreign trade
and member of the Chinese Communist dele-
gation at Geneva, has arranged a meeting
with the Italian Foreign Ministry observer
This is the first known Chinese trade approach at Geneva.
The American delegation observes that the �
presence of two trade officials in the Chinese Communist delegation
seems to indicate that it plans to talk trade on the side if not to intro-
duce the subject of a relaxation of trade controls during the conference.
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Comment: Lei Sen-min is vice minister
for trade with non-Communist countries. The other trade official in
the Chinese delegation is the head of Peiping's trade agency in Berlin,
which negotiates all contracts between Peiping and Western European
traders. The delegation may have come to negotiate specific contracts,
and is expected to make more approaches for trade with the West.
FAR EAST
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Comment on fall of Dien Bien Phu:
The French have lost approximately 16,000
men in the fighting at Dien Bien Phu, a large
proportion of them first-quality colonibl and
Foreign Legion troops. The Viet Minh's casu-
alties are estimated at more than 18,000 killed and wounded.
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With the fall of the position, the Viet
Minh battle corps is expected to return to the Tonkin delta area.
Some units could cover this distance--approximately 200 miles--in
two or three weeks, but about two months would be required for re-
deployment of the bulk of the forces.
The fall of Dien Bien Phu may be the signal
for an all-out effort by the over 75,000 Viet Minh troops already within
or near the delta, which could be supplemented by units returning from
the northwest. The rains will not seriously hamper military activity
there for another six weeks. French Union forces in the delta number
190,000, most of which are tied down in static defense duties.
French morale and prestige have suffered a
blow, but the widespread expectation that Dien Bien Phu could not hold
out--as well as the vote of confidence the government received on
6 May�makes the overthrow of Laniel on this issue unlikely. The end
of the Dien Bien Phu crisis may reduce the emotional pressure for an
immediate cease-fire, though not for a negotiated settlement. Viet
Minh successes in the delta would, however, create new and stronger
pressure for a cease-fire, which might result in the abandonment of
the French government's demand for adequate controls during an armi-
stice.
5. Viet Minh 37mm AA gun� reported north of Tonkin delta:
The Viet Minh is reported to have an un-
specified number of 37mm AA guns at a
point 35 miles north-northeast of Hanoi,
near the Tonkin delta perimeter, according
to the American army attach�n Saigon.
er are said to be in position along a major Viet Minh supply route
running from the China border toward the delta.
Comment: The only positive identification
of Viet Minh 37mm pieces has been at Dien Bien Phu. Their appear-
ance north of the delta would indicate an additional capability to pro-
tect the supply lines from China to their major base area.
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6.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Trial of Ana Pauker may be imminent:
Ana Pauker, purged Rumanian Communist
leader, will be tried before 23 August as
art of a general "cleaning up of loose ends"
y the regime before the party congress,
according to rumors One
of the charges against her will reportedly be that of aiding Zionism.
Although such rumors have recurred several
� times in the past two years, the legation is inclined to place some cre-
dence in the current crops, especially since the regime appears to be
cleaning up unresolved cases of "heresy."
Comment: A trial this summer of Ana
Pauker, as well as Vastle Luca and Teohari Georgescu, who were
purged with her in 1952 for "right and left deviation" and opportunism,
would probably be held in secret. Since the Berta trial in December,
Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Rumania have secretly tried and sen-
tenced several leaders who were ousted as long ago as 1948 on grounds
of bourgeois nationalism, treason and attempting to overthrow commu-
nism.
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Recent reports of secret trials of Zionists
in Rumania strengthen the possibility that Pauker, a Jewess, may be
tried soon. A conviction on a charge of Zionism, however, would mark
a reversal of Orbit policy, which for over a year has played down anti-
Zionist attacks. Neither Luca nor Georgescu is Jewish.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. West Germans seek early American-British intervention in Saar talks:
In discussing the status of the Saar negotiations
with American officials on 5 May, West German
foreign under secretary Hallstein said he be-
lieves American and British intervention--which
ncellor Adenauer feels will be necessary for a solution--should take
place around 13-14 May.
Following discussions between Hallstein and
French deputy foreign minister Schumann, a meeting should be arranged
between Adenauer and French foreign minister Bidault, preferably in
Luxembourg on 16 and 17 May, to resolve all remaining differences.
Hallstein asked for American support of the
position to which the chancellor recently was pledged by his party--that
the Saar not be "Europeanized" until the European Political Community
comes into effect.
Comment: The French want Europeanization
immediately, the Germans at some later date. The French are now think-
ing of an agreement which would say nothing about the timing.
LATIN AMERICA
9. Honduran government considers martial law as strike spreads:
The strike among 14,000 United Fruit Com-
pany workers which began on 5 May is
spreading to other activities and threatens
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to paralyze the entire north coast region of Honduras. An American
embassy official notes that the strikers are well organized and are still
avoiding violence. Fruit company officers believe "troops are the only
answers'
The Honduran interior minister has recom-
mended martial law in the affected area. The embassy lbelieves ex-
dictator Carias is prepared to take over the government if President
Galvez does not take "positive action."
Comment: No overt labor organization is
known to exist in the north coast region. The current strike appears the
result of long-standing grievances effectively exploited by agitators,
reportedly Communists from Guatemala. On 2 May the Honduran govern-
ment accused two Guatemalan consuls in the area of subversive activities
and canceled their exequaturs.
General Carias, Nationalist Party presidential
candidate, who claims to be the only man capable of combating commu-
nism in Honduras, is likely to use the strike in an attempt to justify his
strong-arm methods. Although he does not now appear prepared for a
military coup, he is believed capable of resorting to such action.
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