CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006386
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 15, 1954

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15 May 1954
Copy No, 76
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 3 " 6
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
ri DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: acc 9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:Z/44/1V_ REMOVER;
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. India may hope for invitation to attend Geneva (page 3).
2. Comment on Molotov's proposal for a neutral commission
on Indochina (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. South Korean difficulty in maintaining 20-division army seen
(page 4).
,4. Chinese Nationalists seize another Polish vessel (page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Movement under way to form Cochinchina republic (page 5).
6. Viet Minh sets unacceptable terms for evacuation of wounded
(page 6).
7. Dejean gives gloomy report to Paris (page 6).
8. Burmese premier warns Asian ministers against Ho Chi Minh
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Spaak sees European security system endangered by French
delay (page 7).
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GENERAL
. India may hope for invitation to attend Geneva:
Comment: Molotov's opening speech at Geneva
on 29 April referred to the "unfortunate" absence of India and other
Southeast Asian states, but there has been no firm indication that the
Communists :would invite India.
Although New Delhi has officially disclaimed
interest in attending the conference, the Communists would nevertheless
score a major propaganda victory in India if they should propose such
an invitation.
2. Comment on Molotov's proposal for a neutral commission on Indochina:
Molotov's proposal on 14 May for the creation
of a neutral nation commission to supervise a
cease-fire in Indochina probably was intended
as a reply to Bidault's basic criticism that the
Viet Minh proposals of 10 May failed to provide international control.
Molotov's suggestion applies only to the cease-fire agreement. It does
not modify the Wet Minh provisions rejecting foreign supervision of
elections in the three states and calling for the formation of local com-
missions to prepare for and carry out elections.
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Molotov left open for further negotiation
the question of the composition of the neutral commission. He stated
that he could not agree completely to the French proposal that any
agreements be guaranteed by the nine Geneva participants, but accepted
this proposal "in principle."
The Communists, in view of their emphasis
at Geneva on the theme of "Asia for the Asians," may demand that some
neighboring Asian states such as India, Burma, and Indonesia be in-
cluded in the commission.
Molotov's move is consistent with other indi-
cations that the Communists are seeking to induce the French to open
negotiations for a simple cease-fire without political guarantees. A
truce based on the status quo would leave the Viet Minh in a strong
position to continue infiltration into Laos, Cambodia and non-Communist
areas of Vietnam, and would reduce the risk of possible American or
United Nations intervention.
FAR EAST
3. South Korean difficulty in maintaining 20-division army seen:
South Korean military officials believe the
nation's manpower situation will make it
extremely difficult to maintain a 20-division
army after next year,
At a meeting on 8 May, they determined that 20 divi-
sions can be maintained until April 1955 by the induction of 18-year-olds,
but after that date the army will have to retain those eligible for discharge.
The officials decided this procedure would be inadvisable, but as a last
resort the draft age limit could be raised.
Comment: This realistic appraisal of
South Korea's manpower resources contrasts with President Rhees
demand that the United States train and equip 35 divisions prior to a
UN troop withdrawal, and is unlikely, therefore, to be conveyed to
him.
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4. Chinese Nationalists seize another Polish vessel:
The Polish vessel Prezydent Gottwald,
5,028 gross tons, was seized on the high
seas by a Chinese Nationalist destroyer
escort about 450 miles east of Formosa
on 13 May. Both vessels are now pro-
ceeding to the Formosan port of Kaohsiung.
The Prezydent Gottwald, having previously
called at Canton, was reported as being en
rou e o Tsingtao with a cargo of machinery and medical supplies. The
interception followed an intensive search by two Nationalist destroyer
escorts, a destroyer and five reconnaissance planes.
Comment: Since the seizure of the Polish
tanker Praca last October, Orbit vessels have steered clear of Formosa.
The insecurity of the new route--450 miles east of the island--may force
the Communists to increase overland delivery of strategic goods to North
China, or to use armed escorts for vessels in this trade.
SOUTHEAST ASIA,
5. Movement under way to form Cochinchina republic:
According to a French adviser to Premier
Buu Loc, a local movement is under way
to establish a "Cochinchina Republic" in
the event of the partition of Vietnam. The
informant said several prominent Cochinchinese leaders, including
former premier Tam, are involved.
The embassy considers it probable that
some such movement is afoot, and that it has considerable support
from certain long-established French interests in Cochinchina.
Comment: Advocacy of a separate
government for Cochinchina, which would comprise approximately
the southern third of Vietnam, is considered tantamount to treason
by almost all Vietnamese nationalists. Capable Vietnamese national-
ists might be willing, as a last resort, to support a tentatively par-
titioned Vietnam, but not a definitively dismembered country.
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6. Viet Minh sets unacceptable terms for evacuation of wounded:
French commissioner general Dejean
informed the American embassy in Saigon
on 14 May that evacuation conditions im-
posed by the Viet Minh at Dien Bien Phu
mount o using e wounded as hostages. The enemy insists that
(a) only 450 wounded can be removed at this time; (b) during the
evacuation the French may not bomb the main route leading to the
Tonkin delta, in order to "permit the removal of Viet Minh wounded";
(c) no repair of the Dien Bien Phu airstrips can be made for their use
by C-47's; and (d) no Vietnamese wounded can be evacuated.
Dejean said that following the evacuation
of as many wounded as possible on 14 May, Navarre will inform the
Viet Minh that its conditions are unacceptable and that French bomb-
ing will continue. Meanwhile, guidance from Paris has been urgently
requested.
Comment: There are approximately
1,300 severely wounded at Dien Bien Phu. Refusal to permit the
return of Vietnamese casualties is probably prompted by reluctance
to admit that these troops refuse to adhere to the Viet Minh.
7. Dejean gives gloomy report to Paris:
Dejean warns his government against a
cease-fire agreement for Indochina, as this would allow continued
Viet Minh political infiltration. He also notes the danger that during
a cease-fire, Vietnamese troops might "be politically contaminated,
or disintegrate."
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Dejean states that the disintegration of the
Cambodian army is well advanced, and that enemy guerrilla units are
very active in provinces near Saigon.
Comment: The French Union forces con-
tinue to outnumber the Wet Minh almost two to one, but the widespread
dispersal of the French troops, their deteriorating morale, and increas-
ing Chinese aid to the Viet Minh, account for Dejean's pessimism.
General O'Daniel, who recently visited the
Cambodian capital, was less pessimistic regarding the Cambodian army,
although he criticized its defensive-mindedness and said it should be in-
creased by three divisions this summer to meet the Viet Minh threat.
8. Burmese premier warns Asian ministers against Ho Chi Minh:
Premier Nu at the Asian premiers' confer-
ence in Colombo warned his fellow prime
ministers against placing faith in Ho Chi
Minh, according to information received by
the American embassy in London. Nu was convinced that Ho had be-
come hopelessly indebted to Peiping and Moscow and therefore no longer
represented nationalist sentiment in Indochina.
Comment: Nu's position at Colombo re-
flects the recent development by Burmese leaders of a more realistic
attitude on Indochina.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Spook sees European security system endangered by French delay:
Belgian foreign minister Spaak, who is
"most discouraged" regarding the situation
in France, believes that the "whole European
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security system which has been erected in the past few years" will
be in danger of collapse if European integration is not achieved soon.
In conversation with a member of the American delegation at Geneva,
Spaak suggested that the other EDC members make an urgent appeal
to the French government to move forward on the defense community
treaty.
Comment: In the past Spaak has been
generally optimistic on EDC prospects in France.
In the present temper of the French
assembly, the appeal recommended by Spaak could produce a result
opposite to that intended--particularly since Italy would probably re-
fuse to take part and the French would be likely to see it primarily as
West German pressure.
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