CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006387
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 16, 1954

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16 May 1954
Copy No.
76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I 'd DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2oas
ALITH: HR 70-2
DATE:,Y0417:2_, REVIEWER;
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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OP SECRET
SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Most of Viet Minh forces at Dien Bien Phu expected to return
to delta (reae 3).
2.
3.
4.
Vietnamese chief of staff sends "ultimatum" to Bao Da
(page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
5. USSR may seek to open consulate in East Pakistan (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Laniel may face new government crisis this week (page 5).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Most of Viet Minh forces at Dien Bien Phu expected to return to delta:
The French now expect all except one of the
Wet Minh divisions which were at Dien Bien
Phu to return to the delta periphery, accord-
ing to the American army attach�n Saigon.
The 308th, 312th, and 351st Divisions are
es o assem e n Viet Minh base areas north of the delta, while
the 304th is expected to return to its normal rainy season base in� the
Thanh Hoa area south of the delta. The French believe the 316th Divi-
sion will remain in northwest Tonkin.
The French consider that a decision to commit
these divisions in an early major attack on the delta would be a political
one, as Viet Minh military commanders would prefer waiting until fall,
when their forces would be well rested and organized.
I The French have in the past generally lacked clear
intelligence on enemy dispositions during early stages of Viet Minh re-
deployment.
2
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3. Vietnamese chief of staff sends "ultimatum" to Bao Dai:
The Vietnamese chief of staff, General Hinh,
told the American charge in Saigon on 13 May
that he had sent an "ultimatum" to Bao Dai
demanding that he be given the defense and
Interior portfolios. Hin estimated that unless his demands were met,
or unless Bao Dal himself returned to take over active direction, the
present regime could not last more than 30 days.
The charg�onsiders it "quite apparent" that
Hinh is seeking to set himself up as dictator. Should the general under-
take a coup, much would depend on the attitude of the public toward the
army, which is generally disliked, and on the attitude of the French high
command.
Comment: Hinh's machinations and unwilling-
ness to co-operate with Defense Minister Quat--who is generally regarded
as the ablest man in the government�have been important factors in the
political deterioration in Vietnam.
4.
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SOUTH ASIA
5. USSR may seek to open consulate in East Pakistan:
Comment: An extension of Soviet representa-
tion into East Pakistan would facilitate liaison with the United Front, which
swept the Moslem League from office in the mid-March provincial elec-
tions. The Awami League, the United Front's largest component, is re�
ported to be Communist-infiltrated; its leader, Maulana Bhashani, is said
to have been invited to the World Peace Council meeting in East Berlin on
23 May. Foreign Minister Zafrullah Khan confirmed on 29 April that
Karachi had reversed its stand and agreed to accept military attaches from
Moscow.
WESTERN EUROPE
Laniel may face new government crisis this week:
The consensus in Paris is that the Laniel
government will soon face another crisis in
the National Assembly, Ambassador Dillon re-
ports. Even Deputy Foreign Minister Schumann
has been quoted as predicting that a new question of confidence will arise
"in one form or another" early this week. The Laniel government intends
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*se I...A....I ik 1-s I
to stay stay in office as long as possible, however, in order to maintain
Foreign Minister Bidault at Geneva.
Vice Premier Reynaudis chef de cabinet on
14 May described the French military position in the Tonkin delta as
"desperate, " a view Dillon believes is shared by a majority of govern-
ment officials.
Most of the Radical Socialists supported the
government in the 13 May vote of confidence only because they antici-
pated more bad military news and did not want to consider participation
in the next government until the Indochina situation improves.
Comment: Laniel is unlikely to face another
test this week unless there is a drastic change in Indochina or a stale-
mate at Geneva. It is doubtful, however, that Laniel can continue for
long to use Geneva to retain his government in power. Strong feeling is
reported among Bidault's own Popular Republicans against his running his
"own show" at Geneva. The Paris press views the re entvoteo confi-
dence as merely a brief respite for the government.
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