CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006389
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 19, 1954

for Release: 2019/08/02 C03006389
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19 May 1954
Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE: ECU 9
ALITH; HR 70-2
DATE:-.7.0a/..4.9_..., REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. US delegation comments on Molotov speech at Geneva (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French report Viet Minh movement toward Tonkin delta 'a :e 3 .
3.
4. Burma believed unwilling to join collective security arrangemen
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iranian oil contracts with Italy and Japan complicate consortium
negotiations (page 5).
6. Pakistani foreign minister reports on conversations in Cairo (page 6).
* * * *
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GENERAL
1. US delegation comments on Molotov speech at Geneva:
The American delegation describes Molotov's
14 May speech as the most significant Commu-
nist pronouncement thus far in the conference.
He employed the "familiar Soviet carrot and
whip technique" in an effort to persuade the British and French that if
they will dissociate themselves from American leadership, they will find
the Communists not unreasonable regarding an Indochina settlement. The
delegation believes the Communist price for a settlement is a political
turnover to the Viet Minh.
By linking warnings against direct military
intervention with an apparent disposition toward negotiations, Molotov
hopes to hinder American efforts to organize a collective security system
in Southeast Asia. In addition, the Communists believe that the atmos-
phere of military defeat will make it difficult for the West to build a security
system.
The Communists may estimate that, with the
present British and French attitudes and United States' concentration on
a long-range effort to form a Southeast Asian security system, they now
have an excellent opportunity to gain control of Indochina and perhaps other
areas in this region without risking immediate American counteraction.
Comment: It is believed that the Communists
have not as yet completely ruled out the possibility of separating cease-
fire from political negotiations and that their insistence that these two
phases are inseparable is mainly a negotiating tactic.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. French report Viet Minh movement toward Tonkin delta:
4 Viet Minh movement east-
ward from Dien Bien Phu had been in progress
for several days. major
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units could begin to arrive in the Tonkin delta area by 7 June, and
that there was a strong possibility of a major campaign in the delta.
in the event of a major attack, the French, even if reinforced by
two mobile groups (six infantry battalions), would not have the capability
of holding both Hanoi and Haiphong.
Comment: The only Viet Minh unit thus far
specifically reported moving toward the delta is the 351st Artillery
Division, and the latest estimate of the American army attach�n Saigon
is that it can arrive by 30 May, The French also expect the 308th, 312th,
and one regiment of the 304th Divisions to return to the delta vicinity, and
the 316th Division to remain in northwestern Tonkin. The attach�e-
lieves that the main force can be redeployed by 6-15 June.
The French have at least 20 battalions else-
where in Indochina which could be used for the defense of the delta with-
out seriously jeopardizing security in other areas.
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4. Burma believed unwilling to join collective security arrangement:
Ambassador Sebald in Rangoon believes that
Burma would reject an American invitation to
joint a collective security arrangement for
Southeast Asia. Leaders of the government
would, in his opinion, defend their position by stating that Burma is a
weak country which cannot afford to antagonize its powerful neighbor,
Communist China. The Burmese appear convinced that the United Nations
would come to Burma's defense in case of any overt aggression.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iranian oil contracts with Italy and Japan complicate consortium nego-
tiations:
Iranian officials told consortium negotiators on
11 May that Iran has contracts with Italian and
Japanese companies which provide for the an-
nual export of about 2,900,000 tons of crude and
iftheidOWf�f�Tii�r ten years. The Iranian officials stated that they can-
not cancel these contracts and indicated a desire to fulfill them outside any
consortium arrangements.
The consortium's position is that it cannot be
expected to market Iranian oil at world prices if Iran is selling independ-
ently at a discount. The consortium is willing to let Iran market up to
eight percent of the exportable crude oil if it is sold at world prices and
is considered part of Iran's royalties.
Foreign Minister Entezam expressed surprise
when informed of these contracts and said he doubted they were firm com-
mitments. He appeared to recognize the undesirability of such arrange-
ments.
Comment: The National Iranian Oil Company
(NIOC) apparently has been negotiating oil contracts without consulting
other Iranian government agencies. It is not known whether any irrevo-
cable contracts have been signed.
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The American embassy in Rome reported
last month that Iranian commitments to Italian companies totaled
around $65,000,000. /
6. Pakistani foreign minister reports on conversations in Cairo:
Pakistani foreign minister Zafrullah Khan
arrived in Cairo on 14 May on a surprise
visit during which he hoped to allay Egyp-
tian suspicions in connection with the Turkish-
Pakistani pact. According to Ambassador Caffery, Zafrullah left on
16 May feeling that he had achieved some success and that Egypt might
consider joining such a pact after a Suez settlement had been obtained.
Zafrullah told Caffery that Egyptian leaders
used the occasion of his visit to criticize the British sharply for their
delays in connection with settling the Suez issue. The Egyptians said
they were ready to reach an agreement and had been led to believe that
if they maintained order the British would act.
Comment: There has been sporadic hostility
in Cairo to the Turkish-Pakistani pact. Zafrullah's visit may have been
intended to win Egyptian approval of eventual Iraqi adherence to the pact.
Recent reports from Cairo have emphasized
Colonel Nasrrs desire to reach a settlement with Britain and his willing-
ness to promote a favorable atmosphere. Continuing delay in reopening
the Suez talks will make it increasingly difficult for him to maintain the "
present order.
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