CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006392
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 22, 1954

Approved for Release: 2019/08/02 C03006392,
22 May 1954
Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO, 6 /
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
e 0,
'I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20 0 9
AVM; HR 70-2
REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
E-D
3.3(h)(2) 0/4,
3.5(c)
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Eden believes Chou En-lai would accept Indochina cease-fire
before political settlement (page 3).
2.
3. Reported Indian attempt to obtain nonaggression pact with
Peiping (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Civil war threatened in Saigon (page 5).
5. Security situation in Annam called precarious (page 6).
6. French may be considering regroupment in Tonkin (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Turkey declines invitation to Moslem conference on Palestine (page 8).
8.
9. British officials in Egypt urge London to resume buez tams wage 9).
EASTERN EUROPE
10. East Germans plan to transport 500,000 to 13 e rlin youth rally (page 9).
WESTERN EUROPE
11. French and West German negotiators agree on new Saar statute
(page 10).
12. Virtual accord reached in US-Icelandic talks (page 11).
LATIN AMERICA
13. Guatemala may request "European technicians" for advice on
new arms (page 11).
14.
15. United Fruit strike in Guatema
Honduras (page 13). * * * *
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GENERAL
1. Eden believes Chou En-lai would accept Indochina cease-fire before
political settlement:
Foreign Secretary Eden informed Under
Secretary Smith on 20 May that in a conver-
sation with Chou En-lai that day the Chinese
premier had agreed the military and political
aspects of any Indochinese settlement must be dealt with separately,
with a priority for a cease-fire. Chou felt that the cease-fire should
take effect in the three states on the same date and said there might be
three different political settlements for Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia.
Eden's advisers who accompanied him felt Chou wanted an early agree-
ment for a cease-fire.
The foreign secretary also reported that in
response to his warning that the Indochina situation might lead to un-
predictable and serious results, Chou said he was counting on Britain to
prevent this from happening. Eden warned Chou not to do so, for in a
showdown Britain would stand with the United States.
Comment: This would suggest a further
retreat by the Communists from their original position that a cease-fire
and a political settlement were inseparable. Molotov in his 14 May
speech demanded that "at least some" political problems be solved before
an armistice--a formulation which left room for cease-fire negotiations
without complete agreement on a political settlement.
Agreement to the French demand for separate
settlements in Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam would remove one of the
immediate obstacles to progress in the Indochina talks.
2.
3
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3. Reported Indian attempt to obtain nonaggression pact with Peiping:
India tried but failed to obtain a nonaggression
pact with Communist China during the four-
month Sino-Indian negotiations on Tibet, ac-
This official believes Nehru is publicizing the
Tibet agreement of 29 April as a virtual pledge of nonaggression in the
hope that the Chineoe will consider it in the same light.
Comment: According to its preamble, the
Sino-Indian agreement is based on principles of mutual nonaggression
and peaceful coexistence. Both New Delhi and Peiping have in their pub-
lic announcements emphasized this preamble rather than the operative
sections dealing with Tibetan trade and travel.
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�10
This is the first reliable report that India
has been seeking a firmer nonaggression declaration from Peiping.
However, press reports that the Indonesian government is interested in
a multilateral nonaggression pact with India, Burma, and Communist
China have received a very favorable response from leading Indian news-
papers.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Civil war threatened in Saigon:
There is a
definite danger that fighting may break out be-
tween rival war lord groups and it is not clear
what position the Vietnamese army might take.
The American charg�moreover, has infor-
mation which suggests that antiwhite rioting may
occur.
Meanwhile, the Vietnamese labor minister told
the American charg�n Saigon that morale in the army was "practically
nonexistent" and that the Viet Minh would win any elections which might
be agreed on at Geneva. He said many youths were fleeing from the city
to the country to evade conscription.
Comment: Outbreaks in Saigon would greatly
aggravate the weakening French military and political position in the rest
of Indochina.
Two legionnaire battalions from Africa are due
to arrive in Saigon within two weeks, however, and would add to the French
capability for maintaining over-all control even though internecine fight-
ing or antiforeign rioting occurs.
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5. Security situation in Annam called precarious:
An American economic aid official in central
Vietnam reports the security situation there is
precarious and the general outlook discourag-
ing.
Large numbers of Vietnamese are moving into
the capital of Annam at Hue from the hinterland and many of these are
probably Viet Minh agents.
The only bright spot in the picture is in the
south, where an able colonel and provincial chief are maintaining a dis-
ciplined and effective militia.
The American charg�n Saigon describes one
of the two generals in Annam as "an incompetent whose mouth is as wide
as his fundament," the other as a "bungler." Their headquarters, he
says, is "the burial ground of elephants."
6. French may be considering regroupment in Tonkin:
General Cogny recently told the British army
attach�hat a regroupment of his forces be-
hind the Bamboo Canal-Red River line (see
map, page 7) was tactically advisable under
present circumstances. Cogny said, however,
that ho would not take such action "now" because of the adverse effect
It would have on civilian morale. He also pointed out that the southern
part of the delta, which would be abandoned by the move, was heavily
Catholic and the source of the strongest support the French had in
Tonkin.
Comment: The American army attach�
reported on 20 May rumors that Generals Ely, Salan, Navarre,
Pelissier and Hinh have been discussing the advisability of a similar
regroupment. Such a step would be tantamount to abandonment of al-
most half the delta.
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20
Tuyen Quang
3;
hu Doan
Tho
Viet Tri
Thai Nguyen
ANNA
r`5-:)-\-----StE: �
Chu Thuong
Thanh Hoa
Vinh Yen
106
Phu La
Thu
Rt. 5 r
Nam Dinh
X
Ninh Binh
106
Sept Pagodes
i Duong
Thai Binh
0
/ Loc Binh
Dinh Lap
Tien Yen
oc"
Kt Hon
0
a
C7a CZI
t,
0ria
BAMBOO CANAL�RED RIVER
LINE
TONKIN DELTA
MM. � MEW French perimeter
Selected road
Cart road
Railroad
-I� -4� Railroad, some rails removed
108
20 40 60 810 Miles
20 40 60 80 Kilometers
103
20
40521
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Turkey declines invitation to Moslem conference on Palestine:
8.
Turkey is declining Jordan's recent invitation
t o participate in the proposed Jerusalem con-
ference of all Moslem states�including
Afghanistan and Indonesia�on the Palestine
ue, accor mg o e under secretary of the Turkish Foreign Ministry.
Ankara is notifying Jordan, and informing all the Moslem governments
that it opposes such a meeting and believes it would only increase Arab-
Israeli tension.
The Turkish notification specifies that means
are already available to maintain the Arab-Israeli status quo and expresses
willingness to join the American-British-French declaration of 1950 de-
signed to enforce it.
Comment: Turkey decided immediately upon
receipt of the invitation not to attend the conference but has been seeking
constructive suggestions to include in its answer. Because of Turkish-
Pakistani treaty obligations, Ankara has been in a dilemma over Pakis-
tan's suggestion that such a conference be held.
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itor
. British officials,in Egypt urge London to resume Suez talks:
According to the British minister at Cairo,
both the embassy and British military leaders
at Fayid recently advised London to resume
negotiations with Egypt without further delay.
'The embassy believes the Revolutionary Command Council has streng-
thened its position recently and has shown it can maintain order in the
canal zone.
The British Defense Co-ordinating Committee
at Fayid recently commented to the War Office that time is running
against Britain, and that further delay would generate more opposition
to any agreement.
Comment: Despite this strong advice, a
decision to resume the Suez talks still appears unlikely as long as Geneva
and the Indochina crisis claim the attention of the highest levels of the
British government.
EASTERN EUROPE
10. East Germans plan to transport 500,000 to Berlin youth rally:
East German railways plan to transport
about 500,000 people to the East Berlin youth
rally on 4-7 June. For this purpose they will
use 200 trains, including 4,410 converted box-
cars and 300 passenger cars.
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Comment: Initial estimates of 4009000
participants were lowered when the Free German Youth (FDJ) announced
that political reliability would be the criterion for selecting delegates and
some MA- groups were told that because of the lack of reliability of their
membership, few, if any, delegates would be sent to Berlin.
The railroad plans now suggest that the rally
will rival in size that of 1950, which was attended by about 4409000 dele-
gates, and that the FDJ's criterion of "political reliability" will be loosely
applied.
WESTERN EUROPE
11. French and West German negotiators agree on new Saar statute:
The Saar agreement which West German
chancellor Adenauer and French vice premier
Teitgen reached on 20 May provides for Euro-
peanization of the Saar in three stages on the
basis of the van Naters plan.
Stage one would put the Saar under the control
of the Council of Europe; stage two under the popularly elected European
assembly; and stage three under the European Political Community (EPC).
Each stage reached is to be irrevocable, and France and West Germany
guarantee the settlement pending conclusion of a German peace treaty.
In the economic field, the objective is a gradual
grant to West Germany of rights similar to those of France, without jeop-
ardizing economic co-operation between France and the Saar.
Comment: Adenauer may encounter some
cabinet opposition to this agreement but there is little doubt that he will
be able to get Bundestag support.
Teitgen, although given full powers to negotiate
by the French cabinet, is reported "very nervous" as to whether the cabi-
net will accept this Saar settlement. Now that he has committed the
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Popular Republicans, the Gaullist ministers may decide to have their
major showdown with pro-EDC elements when the Saar agreement is
presented rather than later. On similar occasions in the past, however,
the Laniel government has not allowed the Gaullists' threats of resigna-
tion to deter its progress toward EDC ratification.
12. Virtual accord reached in US-Icelandic talks:
The American minister at Reykjavik reports
that virtually complete accord has been reached
with Iceland on revising the terms of carrying
out the bilateral defense agreement of 1951.
The American contractors will be removed
this year if possible, and steps will be taken to reduce contacts between
Americans and the local population.
In return, the Icelanders will permit the entry
of about 29000 more American troops, the establishment of two perma-
nent antiaircraft units, and additional port construction.
Comment: This understanding eliminates for
the time being Iceland's threat to demand a basic revision or termination
of the agreement. It does not appear to enhance prospects for the United
States' obtaining a second air base. Moreover, difficulties are likely to
,arise should local firms prove incapable of carrying out defense construc-
tion contracts.
LATIN AMERICA
13. Guatemala may request "European technicians" for advice on new arms:
President Arbenz is quoted
as stating that he plans to replace the
United States military mission in Guatemala
with "European technicians and/or pilots,"
s nce Americans now nothing about the arms now arriving."
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vuov
Many Guatemalan army officers are said to
have "grave misgivings" over the arrival of arms on the Alfhem and to
fear that a "large group of Soviet or Satellite instructors" may take over
some of their positions. Many officers seem to feel that they should now
take a stronger anti-Communist stand.
The new arms are being divided equally be-
tween the two military garrisons in Guatemala City,
Comment g Guatemala has not asked for
extension of the United States army and air mission agreements which
lapsed over a year ago. Both missions are still in Guatemala and enjoy
cordial relations with Guatemalan officers.
The equal division. of the new equipment, the
type of which is still unknown, between the two regiments in the capital
appears designed to prevent either from gaining preponderant strength.
It indicates awareness of the decisive role key commanders could play
In any attempt to overthrow the government.
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VL. I . 1 L- I I V\/ I I I
15. United Fruit strike in Guatemala believed linked to strike in Honduras:
Ambassador Peurifoy believes that the strike
begun on 20 May among United Fruit Company
workers on Guatemala's Caribbean coast was
called to coincide with labor disturbances in
neighboring Honduras. The company% manager
earlier expressed fear that a strike might spread to his firm's subsidiary
on the Guatemalan Pacific coast. Communist leader Pellecer appears to
have instigated the walkout.
On 15 May the workers asked the Guatemalan
army to guard the Honduran frontier during the impending strike "to
avoid any provocation from abroad."
Comment: This strike, coinciding with the
walkouts in Honduras since early this month, confronts United Fruit with
Its greatest labor tie-up in history. It appears designed to force a general
settlement in Honduras on terms favorable to labor.
Most of the north coast region of Honduras
remains paralyzed, although settlement was reported in one area on 20 May.
No violence has been reported, but the situation is tense.
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