CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006393
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 23, 1954

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Copy No. 76
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 6 j
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
1:1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: O 0.9
AUTH: HS 70-2
DATE: J02/r3 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
� Increased Japanese trade with Communist China foreseen (page 3).
. Japanese war criminal problem may become serious issue (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Navarre believes Viet Minh "has not decided" to attack delta
(page 4).
4. French military chief says delta must be held (nave 51
5.
SOUTH ASIA
6. Karachi may impose "governor's rule" in East Pakistan (page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
Soviet protest in Austria (nage 6)
Bohlen comments on
(page 7).
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FAR EAST
1. Increased Japanese trade with Communist China foreseen:
Comment: Hatoyama, one of several possible
successors to Yoshida, is supported by interests which favor a more
independent foreign policy and which are highly vocal in advocating trade
with Communist China. Three prominent Hatoyama supporters are at-
tending the current World Peace Council meeting at Berlin and probably
will visit Moscow and Peiping to discuss trade matters.
Yoshida is expected to raise the problem of
divergent American and British policies toward Peiping on his forth-
coming trip abroad. The Japanese have indicated they favor the British
view of dealing with the Chinese Communists, and Yoshida has suggested
to American officials that Japanese business penetration might wean
Peiping away from Moscow.
2. Japanese war criminal problem may become serious issue:
A Japanese Foreign Ministry official asserts
that the war criminal problem will become an
increasingly dangerous issue between Japan
and the United States if Prime Minister Yoshida
is not assured on his forthcoming visit to the United States that releases
will be accelerated. In a plea to the American embassy on 19 May, he
cited the more favorable treatment accorded Germans, and the more len-
ient attitude of the Philippines toward convicted Japanese.
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Comment: Japanese popular feeling on the
continued detention of war criminals was significantly highlighted in
the Diet recently when the minister of education remarked that the war
tribunals had been conducted by the victors in a "barbarian" manner, and
were "like cannibals' festivals."
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Navarre believes Viet Minh "has not decided" to attack delta:
He cautioned Cogny to maintain an atmosphere
of confidence in his relations with the press.
Comment: The main body of Communist units
formerly at Dien Bien Phu is not expected to arrive in the vicinity of the
delta prior to 10 June, Viet Minh intentions probably will not become
clear until it can be ascertained how these units are deployed on their ar-
rival.
for the near future the primary Viet Minh target in the delta will
continue to be the road and railroad between Hanoi and Haiphong.
the French are maintaining traffic along these routes,
they are not cleared of mines and opened before 3:00 p. m. each
day.
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4. French military chief says delta must be held:
5.
General Ely, French chief of staff, told the
American charg�n Saigon on 22 May that
the Tonkin delta must and can be held. He
said there is evidence the Viet Minh is train-
ing troops north of the delta in more modern arms, possibly including
tanks.
Ely intends to effect "new dispositions" in
the delta, bringing French troops from Laos, and replacing French Union
troops now in static positions with Vietnamese troops. He also pointed
out that 2,800 Foreign Legion troops reached Indochina on 22 May, and
hoped he would be able to airlift a few additional battalions from France
with American help. With these forces he feels he can dominate the
situation.
He stated dramatically: "In the '14 war we
had our eyes fixed on the line of the Vosges, but the war was actually
won in the Balkans. In '38 we had our eyes fixed on the Maginot Line,
but the war was lost in Czechoslovakia. In '54 we can lose Europe if
we do not hold here."
Comment: It is possible that Ely's reference
to "new dispositions" might imply a severe contraction of the French
lines in the delta. The American army attach�ecently reported that
such a plan might be under consideration.
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SOUTH ASIA
. Karachi may impose "governor's rule" in East Pakistan:
Since the labor riots on 15 May, the East
Pakistan political situation has been deteri-
orating steadily. Commander in Chief Ayub
Khan of the Pakistani army told the American
army attach�e has urged the government
strongly to promulgate "governor's rule"--direct rule by the provincial
governor acting on instructions from Karachi--and to impose martial
law in certain areas. Ayub estimated that even if his suggestions were
adopted it would take six months "to get the situation back on the tracks."
The attach�tates that the government's
decision is anticipated within a day or two and that the central cabinet
has held extended meetings to consider the problem.
Comment: The central government is
considered capable of restoring order in the area. If the government
takes the recommended actions, however, it will almost certainly lead
to increased friction between Karachi and the provincial government in
East Pakistan,
WESTERN EUROPE
7. Bohlen comments on Soviet protest in Austria:
Ambassador Bohlen believes that the recent
strong attack by the Soviet high commissioner
on alleged anti-Soviet activities in Vienna was
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motivated, at least in part, by a desire to buttress the Soviet thesis
that the possibility of an Anschluss is a real danger and the reason for
Soviet unwillingness to withdraw troops from Austria.
Bohlen feels that unless such Soviet actions
are dealt with firmly, they may develop along much more serious lines.
Comment While the threat of another
Anschluss with West Germany has been a standard part of the Soviet
justification for maintaining troops in Austria, the recent protest appears
to have been brought on primarily by what the Soviet high commissioner
considered to be anti-Soviet activities on the part of the Austrians sup-
ported by Western powers.
The three Western high commissioners plan to
meet early this week to discuss tactics at the Allied Council meeting
scheduled for 28 May at which the Soviet protest will be discussed.
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