CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/05/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006394
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: May 25, 1954

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25 May 1954
Copy No. 82
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
LI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE: ej009
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE;,Vjg r_9 REVIEWER.
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Malik blames US a8 London disarmament talks threaten to bog
down (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Allison sees Japanese desire to loosen ties with US (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French control in Tonkin delta continues to shrink (page 4).
4. Growing Indonesian concern over Indochina developments
noted (page 5).
5. Indonesian Communists advocate accord with National Party in
elections (page 5).
6. Magsaysay may form new political party (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Lebanese-Swedish tanker deal threatens cabinet crisis in Beirut
(page 7).
8. Saudi Arabia deploys troops to prevent second ARAMCO strike
(page 7).
9.
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Demonstrations believed probable in Trieste if partition solution
announced (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. Malik blames US as London disarmament talks threaten to bog down:
Soviet delegate Malik is attacking the American
delegation at the disarmament talks in London
in a continued effort to drive a wedge between
the United States and its allies. He is appar-
ently seeking to create a situation whereby the United States alone can be
blamed for the failure of the talks, according to Ambassador Aldrich.
In reply to Western attempts to find possible
areas of agreement, Malik said on 22 May it was a "cold fact" that there
was nothing further to discuss, since there was no change in the American
position. He charged that there is a Western "conspiracy of silence" on
the USSR's proposals which is designed to permit the United States to hold
atomic superiority.
Comment: Malik .has thrown cold water on
all Western attempts to seek agreement at London and has consistently
reiterated his demand that the subcommittee turn its attention, instead,
to Soviet proposals for immediate prohibition of nuclear weapons and a
One-third reduction of conventional arms.
FAR EAST
2. Allison sees Japanese desire to loosen ties with US:
The recent radiation incident revealed a
strong neutralist and isolationist sentiment
in Japan, and a desire to loosen ties with the
United States, according to Ambassador
Allison. The people's readiness to panic in atomic matters indicates a
serious national vulnerability, and the ambassador warns that a Commu-
nist psychological-military operation which threatened atomic attack
could produce a national stampede and make American bases untenable.
Allison reports that the government's failure
to control the situation following the incident disclosed severe deficiencies
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in domestic security and administrative discipline. He emphasizes that
the cabinet's failure to take disciplinary action against officials who dis-
obeyed direct orders is the most critical aspect of the affair.
The ambassador believes the government's
reluctance to act stems from a desire to show independence of the United
States, both for domestic political reasons and to improve Japan's bar-
gaining position over its role in a Far Eastern collective action program.
He thinks the incident may also lead to demands
for a revision of the security treaty to include an understanding on the use
of nuclear weapons, and notes that the press has called on the government
to obtain guarantees that Japan will never be used as a base for launching
atomic war against its Asian neighbors.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French control in Tonkin delta continues to shrink:'
The assistant army attach�n Hanoi reports
that in certain areas in the southern part of
the delta, notably Bui Chu Province and the
Phu Ly area, the situation is becoming increas-
ingly critical. An American officer who visited
the Bu.i Chu area on 20 May reported that only
one of the province's six districts was under
friendly control. The Viet Minh continues to
compress French-controlled areas throughout
the delta,
Meanwhile the consulate in Hanoi states that both
French and Vietnamese officials are already considering the possibility of
a retreat from Hanoi to Haiphong should the military situation deteriorate
markedly. During his recent visit, General Salan discussed the problems
of a possible evacuation of French civilians to Haiphong.
Comment: Possible evacuation of civilians
from Hanoi may be related to rumor's that the French intend to withdraw
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from the southern part of the delta and, on the basis of purely military
considerations, regroup their regular forces roughly along the Hanoi-
Haiphong communications line.
4. Growing Indonesian concern over Indochina developments noted:
During the past year, the view generally held
by Indonesians that Ho Chi Minh is the leader
of a struggle identical to their own against the
Dutch has run up against nagging doubts about
Ho's independence of Communist China, according to Ambassador Cum-
ming in Djakarta. The Indonesian press has also shown an increasing
tendency to recognize Ho's dependence on Peiping and one paper warned
him against going from the "mouth of the lion to the mouth of the croco-
dile."
The ambassador believes, however, that
Indonesian leaders are not prepared to acknowledge their concern pub-
licly because it would amount to siding with the West and thus violate
their "independent" foreign policy. They are also believed to feel that
Indonesia's geographical location, coupled with whatever moves the West
may make in Southeast Asia, provides "an umbrella which will give
Indonesia time to formulate its own position."
5. Indonesian Communists advocate accord with Nation,11 Party in elections:
The secretary general of the Indonesian
Communist Party on 19 May invited other
"democratic" parties to join in a "ballot-box
accord" to support a single slate of candidates
in Indonesia's first elections, which are scheduled for next year, accord-
ing to the American embassy in Djakarta.
A member of the executive committee of the
National Party, which controls the Indonesian government, subsequently
stated that co-operation between the Nationalists and the Communists
was acceptable in the interests of presenting a single front for the elec-
tions.
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Comment: By their united front tactics the
Indonesian Communists have improved their position to the point where
the government, in a showdown, is dependent on their parliamentary
support for continuing in office. Closer co-operation between the Commu-
nists and other "democratic" parties for the elections would offer greatly
Improved opportunities for Communist infiltration.
6. Magsaysay may form new political party:
Democratic Senator Tomas Cabili
said on 20 May that he and President Magsaysay
have agreed to form a new political party in or-
der to force a showdown with the Recto-Laurel
faction of the Nacionalista Party. They will
announce the new party on the occasion of
Senator Recto's next attack on Magsaysay, which
they expect after Defense Secretary Wilson's de-
parture from Manila.
Cabin stated the new grouping will be called
"Nacionalista Consolidad" and will include all five coalition Democratic
senators, as well as a number of Nacionalistas and opposition Liberals
In both houses of Congress.
Comment: Magsaysay has long been reported
aware he must force an eventual showdown on Recto's continuine attacks
on his leadership.
As a result of the political conflict,
the Philippine congressional session ended 20 May with little action on the
president's domestic reform program.
The projected new party includes some senators
of doubtful loyalty to the preside as outlined, would include only a
bare majority of the senate.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Lebanese-Swedish tanker deal threatens cabinet crisis in Beirut:
Lebanon is facing a major government crisis
as a result of the efforts of some Lebanese
merchants to buy two tankers from Sweden for
resale to Poland, according to Prime Minister
Yafi and Foreign Minister Naccache.
Yafi told Ambassador Hare that the minister
of national economy feels honor-bound to resign if he must cancel the
permits. His resignation, according to Yafi, could bring about a cabinet
crisis which would be particularly unfortunate now when President Chamoun
is making a good-will trip to South America.
On the other hand, Foreign Minister Naccache
told Hare that he would resign if the deal goes through or no alternative
disposition of the case is arranged.
Comment: This tanker deal, which has been
engineered by politically powerful merchants, has been headlined in the
Lebanese press as a "juicy scandal" and effectively used against the self-
styled reform regime of Yafi and President Chamoun. Their overthrow
would probably bring less desirable politicians to power.
On 19 May, the embassy in Beirut was informed
that the import-export licenses had been "suspended" for one week pending
study of the deal.
8. Saudi Arabia deploys troops to prevent second ARAMCO strike:
Saudi Arabia is sending 1, 500 mobile troops to
the Dhahran area, bringing its total forces there
to 3, 000, in order to prevent a rumored strike
against ARAMCO early this summer, accord-
ing to Consul General Carrigan at Dhahran. In furnishing this information,
Colonel Awartani, the senior Saudi military officer of the eastern province,
stated that the king authorized him "to arrest the troublemaker."
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Carrigan reports that although ARAMCO does
not believe immediate action is necessary to forestall a strike, the com-
pany is worried because of the absence of Ibn Jiluwi, the strong local
governor.
Comment: Saudi forces seem capable of con-
trolling any serious disturbances. Troops under Colonel Awartani were
able to maintain order during last October's disorders, when Ibn jiluwi
was absent from the country. Labor difficulties are aggravated by the
government's continued repressive policy which was the real cause of
last fall's troubles.
In face of increasing Saudi harassment of
ARAMCO, another major strike, which the government would again blame
on the company, would further complicate the company's relations with
the government as well as with local employees.
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EASTERN EUROPE
N. Demonstrations believed probable in Trieste if partition solution
announced:
Mass demonstrations and possible violence in
Trieste are likely to follow any announcement
of a plan. for partition of the Free Territory,
according to American representatives in
rie e. They point o various developments among local political par-
ties and groups tending toward support of the Italian Peace Treaty provi-
sions calling for the establishment of an independent Free Territoy.
Even the local mayor, a strong Italian irredentist, in his most recent
statements no longer appears to favor the 8 October declaration which
provided for Italian administration of Zone A.
The pro-Cominform Communist Party is
reportedly making a determined effort to encourage antipartition
feeling among the local populace.
Comment: It was earlier reported that
representatives of the Trieste center parties told Italian premier Scelba
early this month that they would call for public demonstrations if neces-
sary to prevent any agreement involving partition of the Free Territory
of Trieste.
Since 8 October, public opinion in Trieste has
mounted against any plan in which Zone A would go to Italy while Yugo-
slavia would retain Zone B. Much of the opposition to partition reflects
the increasing amount of independentist feeling which arises from fears
of the economic consequences of the return of Zone A to Italy. Further-
more, strong feeling persists among irredentists who believe that Zone B
would be lost permanently under any partition plan.
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