CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/04/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006395
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 23, 1954

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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. USSR may open Geneva conference with Indochina proposal
(page 3).
2. Rhee instructions to South Korean delegation at Geneva reported
(page 3).
3. Radiotelephone link established between Nanning and Moscow (page 4).
FAR EAST
4. Sapanese debt negotiation seen critical for American relations
(page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Navarre sees early "asphyxiation" of Dien Bien Phu (page 5).
6. France accepts "revolutionary" terms for Vietnamese independence
(page 6).
7. French officials fear anarchy in Cambodia (page 7).
8. French see need for US intervention in Indochina if Geneva fails
(page 7).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Amount of compensation held key to American-Libyan base agreement
(page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
10. Bonn may desire American and British intervention on Saar (page 9).
TCW cPCR FT
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GENERAL
1. USSR may open Geneva conference with Indochina proposal:
2.
informed the American consul
on 21 April that
had stated the Soviet delegation's "open-
ing proposal" at Geneva will include: (a) an immediate cease-fire in
Indochina; (b) discontinuation of all foreign aid to both belligerents;
and (c) truce negotiations to be conducted exclusively between the
Viet Minh and the Vietnamese without the participation of France
or any other power.
in
Comment: The reliability of this report
cannot be judged.
It is possible, however, that the Commu-
nists will introduce a dramatic proposal for an immediate cease-fire
in Indochina at the opening of the conference in an attempt to destroy
Western unity on the question of the priority of the Korean issue at
Geneva.
In view of the Communists' apparent con-
cern about the possibility of internationalization of the Indochina war,
it appears likely that they would seek to attach to a cease-fire offer a
condition that all foreign aid be discontinued.
It is unlikely that the Communists desire
to exclude France from truce negotiations. They have always insisted
that an Indochina settlement can be reached only by direct negotia-
tions between France and the Viet Minh,
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3. Radiotelephone link established between Nanning and Moscow:
A Nanning newspaper smuggled to Hong
Kong reports that a long-distance radio-
telephone link was to be opened on 15
February between Moscow and Nanning
in South China. The stated purpose was
to "cope with the present needs of industrial development."
Comment: Nanning is the principal base
for Chinese Communist aid to the Viet Minh. The new service is
almost certainly designed to allow the Chinese to keep Moscow more
rapidly informed of developments relating to Indochinal and to supple-
ment existing communications links to Moscow via Peiping.
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FAR EAST
4. Japanese debt negotiation seen critical for American relations:
Forthcoming negotiations in Tokyo for
the settlement of Japan's two-billion-dollar
debt to the United States for aid furnished
during the occupation will impose a serious
strain on American relations, according to Ambassador Allison. He
warns that the violent anti-Americanism provoked by the atomic radia-
tion incident and the continued serious deterioration of the Japanese
economy have further complicated a situation already made difficult
by Japanese concern over reparations and increased defense expendi-
tures.
Allison believes that if the current political
scandals cause the Yoshida government to fall, any succeeding admin-
istration will seek to divest itself of charges of subservience to the
United States by opposing settlement a the debt.
Comment: The receipt of this aid was
never approved by the Diet and thus technically is not a recognized
debt--a convenient argument for those who oppose repaying it. The
negotiations are also certain to revive Communist claims that the
United States profiteered on "spoiled" and surplus food distributed
during the occupation.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Navarre sees early "asphyxiation" of Dien Bien Phu:
General Navarre believes that as a matter
of "military mathematics" Dien Bien Phu
will fall by "asphyxiation," perhaps in a
week or ten days, according to Commissioner
General Dejean in Saigon. The central redoubt and airstrip are under
heavy artillery fire and the enemy's entrenchment system grows con-
stantly tighter. The steadily dwindling drop zone makes resupply in-
creasingly difficult.
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Recourse to a relief column from northern
Laos is not considered feasible by Navarre, Dejean states. He could
find a maximum of nine battalions for this effort, but deficiencies in
his air arm would prevent its success.
Dejean also states that in General Cogny's
opinion, the Viet Minh could "prepare an onslaught" on the Tonkin delta
within ten days after Dien Bien Phu's fall.
Comment: Viet Minh forces now within
the Tonkin delta have not yet exerted their maximum capabilities, but
they could not by themselves effect complete control over this key area.
The redeployment of the enemy forces from Dien Bien Phu to the delta
would require at least a month during good weather and longer during
the rainy season.
6. France accepts "revolutionary" terms for Vietnamese independence:
The negotiations on Vietnam's independence
have for all practical purposes been success-
fully concluded, Vietnamese officials told
American representatives in Paris on 20
April. They said that France has accepted "revolutionary suggestions"
contrary to the provisions of the French constitution.
Although the treaties will not be signed until
the economic and financial conventions are ready, the Vietnamese be-
lieve that successful conclusion of the talks could be announced before
the Geneva conference.
Comment: An affirmation of complete
independence would strengthen the West's position at Geneva insofar
as it undercut Communist charges that Vietnam is a puppet and would
remove much Vietnamese suspicion of the French.
Announcement that France has accepted
"revolutionary" terms would, however, presumably increase the
pressure on the French government for an Indochina solution at
Geneva. A National Assembly resolution passed by a large majority
in March stated that France would be relieved of its responsibilities
In Indochina if the French Union were not maintained according to the
provisions of the constitution.
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7. French officials fear anarchy in Cambodia:
The American embassy in Saigon reports
that high French officials there fear Cambodia
is heading for anarchy. General de Langlade,
a member of Navarre's staff, said that with
the king's "hysterical decision" to relinquish command, the Cambodian
army became leaderless except for the nominal command of Tiou Long,
the defense minister. Commissioner General Dejean referred to the
"rudderless condition of the ship of state" and demoralization in the
army and said that the few French-officered battalions provide the only
bulwark against Viet Minh penetration.
Comment The Cambodian government,
despite its inexperience, has widespread popular support which it can
rally against the Viet Minh as a foreign movement. The army, however,
would be hard-pressed by a determined Viet Minh campaign. In the past,
French officials have been notably overpessimistic regarding Cambodian
stability.
8. French see need for US intervention in Indochina if Geneva fails:
lithe Geneva conference fails to produce an
Indochina solution, American naval and air
intervention will be necessary for France to
continue prosecution of the war, according to
Secretary of State for the Associated States racquet, He told Ambassa-
dor Heath that no French military authority has any hope of victory in
the present situation. He added that the cabinet group supporting Premier�
Laniel's policy of war until an honorable peace can be negotiated is com-
mitting political suicide� but will continue to take the risk if there is a
prospect of military victory.
Defense Minister Pleven told Heath on 21
April that if Geneva fails to produce a settlement, France will not
continue the war. He implied that a full partnership with the United
States would make continuation of the French effort possible, but that
air support alone, no matter how great, would not be enough. He indi-
cated that he has a poor opinion of the military prospects of "united
action" with other nations.
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Both French officials pointed out that
Geneva is the center of French hopes. Jacquet said that the cabinet
expects the conference to fail, but Pleven seemed to think that a solu-
tion might be possible through partition of Vietnam.,
Comment: Public opinion in France rules
out a requost for American Intervention now. Should Geneva fail,
however, the prospect of a Dunkirk or negotiations with a militarily
strong Viet Minh would leave no alternative but an appeal for American
or UN intervention. The above-reported remarks may have been in-
tended in part to convince the United States of the need for a more
flexible position at Geneva.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
9. Amount of compensation held key to American-Libyan base agreement:
Minister Villard in Tripoli believes that the
outcome of current negotiations for American
military base facilities in Libya depends on
the amount of annual compensation Libya is
offered.
Villard is convinced that an annual payment
of approximately $10,000,000 is the minimum that Libya will now accept
In return for bases. He notes that Prime Minister Ben Halim, as well
as his two predecessors, has intimated that Libya will not accept less
from the United States than it receives from Britain. The Anglo-Libyan
treaty of 1953 provided for the annual payment of about $11,000,000 in
return for military facilities.
Comment: The British facilities in Libya
are much more extensive than those desired by the United States.
Libyan officials have frequently indicated
during the past two years that the annual payment of $4000,000 provided
for in the draft base agreement initialed in December 1951 was not
acceptable.
As a consequence of the prolonged delay in
obtaining an agreement, American requirements for base facilities in
Libya were recently reduced.
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WESTERN EUROPE
10. Bonn may desire American and British intervention on Saar
There is only a "slim" chance that France
and West Germany, meeting alone, will be
able to reach a Saar agreement prior to the
18 May deadline set by the French government,
according to a West German Foreign Ministry spokesman. He noted,
however, that the present talks are the first in which "experts really
got down to grips" on certain economic provisions of the projected
agreement.
Comment: Bonn probably hopes that the
United States and Britain soon in the Saar negotiations.
The present French timetable for EDC ratification assumes that the
present discussions will sufficiently narrow the areas of disagreement
so that by mid-May Foreign Minister Bidault and Chancellor Adenauer
will be able to resolve the remaining points at issue.,
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