CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/08/29

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03006404
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: August 29, 1954

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29 August 1954
f
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
Copy No.
80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 11
NO CHANGE IN CLASS X
O DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. 1.0
AUTH; HR 70-2
DATE � g0 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
-FOP SECRET-
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1 'kJ I. 1-e��� IV Ls I.
11111OF
SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Ely willing to give Vietnamese premier Diem "another chance" (page 3).
2. Cambodians suspect French and British plan to forestall direct US
aid (page 3).
3. Cambodia protests Viet Minh failure to disarm local dissidents (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. West German Socialist support seen for independent national army (page 5).
6. Vinogradov's interview with Mendes-France continues Soviet anti-EDC
pressure (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Brazilian Communists reported planning further disturbances (page 7).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Ely willing to give Vietnamese premier Diem "another chance":
French commissioner general Ely told
Ambassador Heath on 26 August that his
plan for the Vietnam government calls for
Tran Van Huu as premier and Nguyen Van
Tam as minister of interior. Ely said he would be willing, however,
despite Paris' instructions, to "give Diem another chance," but only
If- Diem will accept former premier Tam as his interior minister.
Ely made this concession in response to
Heath's statement that he did not see how ex-premier Huu could satisfy
nationalist anti-Communist sentiment in view of his earlier maladmin-
istration and dishonesty, his more recent flirtation with the Viet Minh,
and his unpopularity with the Cochinchina war lords.
Comment: Though the French have the
capability for removing Diem at any time, much of the tough talk
currently heard from opponents of the Diem government is probably
designed to dissuade the United States from supporting him and thus
prepare the way for his ouster. On 21 August, General Ely's civilian
deputy advanced a program which is contrary to Ely's. The deputy
doubted that Tam and Huu would be of any use, asserting that the war
lords held the key to political power in the south. Actually, none of
the contenders for Diem's position has the nationwide prestige essen-
tial to an effective anti-Viet Minh effort.
2. Cambodians suspect French and British plan to forestall direct US aid:
The Cambodian foreign minister told the
American charg�n Phnom Penh that his
government was puzzled by the secrecy sur-
rounding Australia's offer via the British
charg�o sponsor Cambodian UN membership and the French high
commissioner's admonitions of "greatest secrecy" in connection with
a proposed French-British-American aid program. The foreign
minister speculated that these French and British approaches appeared
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designed to forestall direct American aid relations with Cambodia,
and is worried by concurrent indications that essential French mili-
tary support may not be forthcoming.
Comment: British officials have interpreted
the spirit of the Geneva agreemas as assuring Peiping that Cambodia
would be neutralized. French and British Commonwealth approaches
to Cambodia shortly before the opening of the SEAP conference are
probably designed to promote their view that Cambodia's interests
will be best served by remaining outside the umbrella of any security
arrangement for the area.
3. Cambodia protests Viet Minh failure to disarm local dissidents:
The Cambodian government has presented to
Indian General Singh, chief of the truce com-
mission in Cambodia, a documented protest
against Viet Minh failure to disarm the "Khmer
y 23 August. The prime minister told the American charg�
that he realizes the Communists will try to take every advantage of the
truce terms, and his government is letting nothing pass without protest.
Although there is no great security problem
in Cambodia at present, the government is increasingly concerned over
a possible Communist takeover in free Vietnam and the long-range threat
to Cambodia.
Comment: The Cambodian cease-fire agree-
ment went into effect on 23 July, and provided that "Khmer resistance
forces" would be demobilized on the spot within 30 days. This is the
first official protest of a Viet Minh violation.
While Viet Minh policy in Vietnam apparently
is to avoid obvious violations of the cease-fire agreement, the weak-
ness of the Viet Minh's position in Cambodia has impelled it to adopt
other tactics.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
WESTERN EUROPE
West German Socialist support seen for independent national army:
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L.3.1.:A_AVE,
Norie
Comment: Neutralism in Germany is
closely associated with sen�iii�neitirin favor of rapprochement with
the USSR. The opposition Social Democrats will for domestic
political reasons continue to push for a four-power conference on
German unity, but they apparently desire to explore the possibility
of a bipartisan foreign policy if EDC fails.
At present, several views are emerging
in Bonn on EDC alternatives, such as expansion of the border police,
formation of an independent army in NATO, or the establishment of
a five-power EDC which France could join at .a later date.
6. Vinogradov's interview with Mendes- France continues Soviet anti-
pressure:
French officials have described Soviet
ambassador. Vinogradov's statements in
his interview with Premier Mendes-France
on 26 August as vague and meaningless, ex-
cept for those on disarmament. They believe that Vinogradov wished
to give the public impression of an important interview by prolong-
ing the discussion and by stationing his car, flying the Soviet flag, in
front of the Foreign Ministry throughout the interview.
On disarmament, Vinogradov said his
government now feels there is a large measure of agreement between
Soviet views and those presented by French delegate Jules Moch to
the UN disarmament subcommission in June. He claimed that the
Western powers had not made a single constructive suggestion since
the Berlin conference, whereas the USSR had taken many steps to show
good will. He mentioned the Geneva conference, the European secu-
rity plan, and now the willingness to accept the bulk of French dis-
armament proposals.
Comment: This Soviet overture, an
evident anti-EDC gesture, has apparently had no immediate effect on
Mendes-France.
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LATIN AMERICA
7. Brazilian Communists reported planning further disturbances:
The Communists allegedly plan to incite
factory strikes and then lead the workers into the streets. They
believe that General Estillac Leal, commander of the central mill-
tary zone, may not oppose their activities.
Comment: The Communists have already
provoked several serious riots, including attacks on American in-
stallations, since President Vargas' suicide on 24 August, Estillac
Leal, whose headquarters is in Sao Paulo, has been accused of
Communist sympathies.
The Brazilian Communist Party, though
outlawed, is the largest and possibly the wealthiest Communist party
in Latin America. It is believed to have increased its membership
nearly 50 percent in the past two years to about 110,000. Recruitment
priority has been given to industrial workers, centered mainly in Sao
Paulo,
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