CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/12/12

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03007358
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: December 12, 1959

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CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN'
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12 DECEMBER 1959
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
GMAIC statement on new class of Sovietsubmarine
Soviet press giving special treatment to
Cuban revolution as "a national libera-
tion movement."
East Germans making preparations to be
present at summit conference.
Comment on Peiping's new note to Indo-
nesia.
Sharp reduction in Chinese Communist
shelling of offshore islands coincides with
Peiping's new stress on political solution
to Taiwan issue.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Turkish health minister making study
tour of USSR at Moscow's invitation.
Sudan--Military government acting to
stamp out dissidence in the army.
Accord believed near on repatriation of
Koreans in Japan to South Korea.
III. THE WEST
�Greek population on Cyprus to elect
president on 13 December.
0 Guatemala-- Revolutionary party protests
fraud in 6 December elections; demon-
strations planned.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
12 December 1959
DAILY BRIEF
� ?�P I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet Submarines: The Guided Missile and Astronautic
Intelligence Committee has made a preliminary assessment
of evidence concerning a new class of Soviet submarine, des-
ignated the "G" class by US intelligence, which is possibly
equipped to carry guided missiles. ONI estimates that the
Northern and Pacific Fleets each have three "G"-class units.
In addition, these fleets each have two modified "Z"-class
units, which the majority of the Committee believe are prob-
ably equipped to launch guided missiles. CIA, Army, and Air
Force, however, evaluate these units as only possibly for
guided missiles. (Page 1)
USSR-Cuba: The Soviet press is devoting increased at-
tention to Cuba, and Izvestia recently characterized the Castro
regime not as the usual Latin American revolution but a "na-
tional liberation movement"--Soviet terminology usually re-
served for Afro-Asian anticolonialist movements. This por-
trayal implies that Moscow has put the stamp of approval on
the Cuban revolution within the context of Marxist-Leninist
dogma. The Soviet press also featured an article by a Cuban
Communist party leader which advocated diplomatic relations
with the "socialist camp" and, above all, the USSR and Com-
munist China. (Page 3)
East Germany: file East German regime is already mak-
ing preparations to be present at a future summit conference.
The Foreign Ministry protocol chief
planned a trip to Geneva this week to arrange accommo-
dations for an East German delegation. East German Foreign
Ministry officials will make every effort to participate in the
conference. They believe that they will have Soviet support,
and that the Western powers will eventually concede on the
Issue. Chancellor Adenauer, however, has stated that West
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.wermany should forego attendance at the summit in an effort
to forestall East German nartieination'l
Lornmunist China - Indonesia: Peiping's note of 9 Decem-
ber to Djakarta, while conciliatory in language, reflects
China's determination to continue its pressures on the Indo-
nesian Government to end its "persecution" and "cruel treat-
ment" of Chinese nationals. Warning against forces "bent
on sabotaging the friendship" between the two countries, the
Chinese Communists propose the immediate implementation
of the long pending Sino-Indonesian nationality treaty, along
with Indonesian guarantees of protection for and nondiscrim-
ination against Chinese who do not choose to take Indonesian
citizenship.
Although Djakarta is apparently willing to proceed with
implementation of the treaty, it is believed determined to
carry out its program of resettling Chinese retailers and is
unlikely to offer guarantees satisfactory to Peiping.
(Page 4)
� Taiwan Strait: Ehe Chinese Communists have fired only
14 high-explosive shells against Chinmen so far this month,
as compared with 81 last month and 1,215 in June. The Mat-
sus have not been shelled at all in the last 12 weeks. This
marked decline in shelling coincides with other indications
nf inereaqpri qtrpq) on a political solution of the Taiwan issue
(Page 5)
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Turkey: A Turkish public health and medical survey
delegation, headed by Minister of Health Lutfi Kirdar, left
Istanbul on 9 December for a 10- to 15-day study tour of the
USSR at the invitation of the Soviet Government. Kirdar will
be the first Turkish minister to visit the Soviet Union since
1939. Ankara has had a long-standing invitation to send such
a delegation and has assured the American Embassy that the
trip has no political significance. It is not regarded as rep-
resenting any basic change in Turkey's attitude toward the
Soviet Government, but the timing suggests that Ankara may
12 Dec 59
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be trying toincrease its maneuverability in anticipation of
any broader East-West rapprochement.
buctan: me APPOUCI military government has shown its
determination to stamp out further dissident activity in the
army by discharging 16 junior officers suspected of involve-
ment in the antiregime plotting which led to the abortive coup
of 10 November. The coup leaders were executed or sen-
tenced to long prison terms early this month. The power
of Deputy Army Commander in Chief Hasan Bashir Nasir9
who was primarily responsible for thwarting the coup at-
tempt and who for several months has been advocating a
purge of the officer corps, probably is increasing.
� Japan-Korea: The only condition blocking an accord be-
tween Seoul and Tokyo on repatriation of Korean residents in
Japan to South Korea is said to be Japan's insistence that
South Korea agree that in the future all Japanese fishermen
who violate the Rhee line will be released automatically on
completion of their prison sentences. Seoul has expressed
its willingness to return on 24 December those fishermen who
have already served their sentences. The Japanese Govern-
ment fears, however, that South Korea may back out on its
promise to release the fishermen when the repatriation to
North Korea scheduled for 14 December begins. Such action
would cause the Japanese to nullify any agreement for repatria-
tionto South Korea.
III. THE WEST "
Cyprus: The political campaign on Cyprus will culminate
on 13 December in the election by the Greek population of a
president for the new republic. Observers on the island pre-
dict that Archbishop Makarios will defeat his 72-year-old
rival, John Cleridess, who is supported by an alliance of dis-
sident rightists and Communists. Makarios' margin of vic-
tory must be over 60 percent of the total vote or he will suffer
12 Dec 59
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� a damaging blow to his prestige both on the island and abroad.
Makarios has the backing of the Greek Government,.*g Turk-
ish Cypriot leaders as well as the British authorities favor his
election:1
usea to assure the victory
of a majority of pro-administration candidates in the 6 Decem-
ber congressional election has led the moderate leftist Revolu-
tionary party (PR) to announce its refusal to accept the election
outcome. PR leaders plan protest demonstrations; some vio-
lence may occur but the government does not appear in imme-
diate danger. On 10 December all public demonstrations were
prohibited� and the police and army are likely to be used quickly
to prevent serious disorder. (Page 6)
12 Dec 59
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
GMAIC Statement on Possible New Soviet Missile Submarines
The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee
sent the following conclusions to US1B:
1. Recent evidence has permitted a rather firm
identification of a new class of Soviet submarine
(designated "G" class by US intelligence) in both the
Northern and Pacific Fleet areas. These are conven-
tionally powered, but have a very long and high sail
(conning tower), the details of which have not yet been
observed. This is the second class of submarine with
enlarged sail, the other being a modification to the "Z"
class. The latter have been observed rather closely,
and are now assessed by the majority of GMAIC as
probably being for launching guided missiles, with
the minority* evaluating them as only possibly for
guided missiles. Since there is little detail known on
the new "G" class, the majority opinion is that it is
possible that this class of submarine has a capability
for launching guided missiles. There is some tie-in
in COMINT between a "G"-class submarine and the
special submarine detachment to which some of the
modified "Z"-class are assigned; thus it is possible
that both have a similar purpose.
2. We have previously estimated that,if usedfor mis�
sile launching, the modified "Z" could carry a 200-n. m.
missile with a 1,000-pound warhead and an accuracy of
2-4 n. m. A modified 350-n, m. missile is technically
also a possibility. Because of the increased height of
sail, a longer missile is possible in the new "G" class
and we therefore estimate that, if for missile launching,
the "G" class could carry a 350-n, m. missile, although
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shorter or even longer range ballistic missiles are
less likely possibilities. The warhead weight could be
2,000 pounds and CEP of 2-4 n. m. *
3. There is specific evidence from photographs
that two missiles could be carried on the "Z", but
no good evidence as to the number that could be car-
ried by the "G". Since the sail is much larger mnre
missiles could be carried.
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Increased Soviet Press Attention to Cuba
An Izvestia article recently characterized the Castro
movement not as a usual Latin American revolution but a
"national liberation movement" in whicp the working class and
laboring peasantry "took the most active role." The application
of this terminology specifically to Cuba implies that Moscow
has put its ideological stamp of approval on the Castro regime.
The October issue of the Soviet journal International Affairs had
called Perez Jimenez' overthrow in Venezuela as well as that
of Batista in Cuba a "turning point" marking the emergence of a
"new stage in the national liberation struggle in Latin America."
On 4 December, Pravda published a lengthy article by Cu-
ban Communist party leader Escalante in which he described the
Castro regime as a "people's government" not controlled by the
working class but subject to great influence by the "proletariat
and the peasantry." He charged the US with threatening to re-
duce sugar imports, obstruct trade in general, and restrict
tourism as a means of bringing pressure on the Cuban Govern-
ment to submit to the interests of the "US monopolists." Escalante
concluded by advocating that diplomatic relations be resumed be-
tween Cuba and the "socialist camp," particularly with the USSR
and Communist China. Moscow's publication of these remarks is
probably intended to indicate itarec�vflr toanvCuban overtures
to resume diplomatic relations.
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Peiping Proposes Talks With Indonesia ,.Regarding Overseas Chinese
Chinese Communist Foreign Minister Chen Yi sent a letter
on 9 December to Indonesian Foreign Minister Subandrio which,
while using conciliatory terms, said Peiping could not but be
seriously concerned over the "intolerable" treatment of Chinese
nationals in Indonesia. Chen said that Indonesian disregard of the
rights of Overseas Chinese was "extremely detrimental" to friend-
ly relations between the two countries.
Chen proposed immediate negotiations to solve the dispute.
He suggested that, while Chinese in Indonesia should feel an obli-
gation to take up Indonesian nationality, those who did not want
to do so should be protected by the Indonesian Government from
discrimination and persecution. Peiping expressed willingness
to repatriate Chinese dispossessed under Djakarta's decree against
alien businessmen.
a
In order that Chinese in Indonesia might state their citi-
zenship preferences, Chen expressed Peiping's readiness to ex-
change immediately ratification instruments of the dual nationali-
ty treaty. The treaty, signed in 1955, would require Chinese
in Indonesia to choose between Indonesian and Chinese citizenship
within two years.
Peiping's proposals are obviously intended to stall further
Implementation of Indonesia's decree banning alien retailers in
rural areas and resettling them in nearby cities. Foreign Min-
ister Subandrio's reply to the Chinese proposals has not been
made public. In view of Djakartair's consistently strong position
on the decree as an issue of "national interest," it is not likely
to back down on the ban and it apparently wants the dual nationali-
ty treaty to go into effect promptly.
12 Dec 59
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_ _
Now'
DATA ON CHINESE COMMUNIST SHELLS FIRED ON
OFFSHORE ISLANDS
Month
HE Shells
Chinmen
HE Shells
Matsu
Propaganda Shells
Propaganda Shells
June
1215
808
429
108
July
537
373
404
41
August
125
225
78
64
Sept
156
808
5
69
Oct
114
872
0
0
Nov
81
491
0
0
Dec (thru
14
0
0
9th)
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Communists Gradually Reducing Shelling Against
Offshore Islands
There has been a marked decrease in Chinese Communist
shelling of the offshore islands since June, especially during
the last three months. Only 14 high-explosive shells had been
fired against Chinmen through 9 December, as compared with
81 during November, and.1,215, in June, TheJ iltlatsus haVe.mt
been shelled at-alLin the last 12 weeks.
The Communists may be preparing the way for a period
during which persistent political approaches will be made to
Nationalist officials in an effort to get them to defect to the Com-
munist cause or to create suspicion between them and US offi-
cials. Coincident with the decline in shelling, Chinese Commu-
nist leaders have de-emphasized the use of force against Taiwan
both in current propaganda and in recent conversations with for-
eign visitors and have suggested the prospect of "leniency" to
the Nationalists by their recent amnesty of 30 Kuomintang "war
criminals."
During his visit to China last October, Khrushchev may
have given added impetus to Peiping's apparent shift to political
warfare against Taiwan. /According to recently available infor-
mation, Khrushchev had "strongly requested" the Chinese not
to embark on any new military action against Taiwan in the near
future,and the Chinese are said to have given Khrushchev "as-
surances" that they would undertake no 7w military initiatives
against the island.)
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III. THE WEST
Electoral Fraud Prompts Bitter Reaction From
Guatemalan Leftists
The extensive fraud used to assure the victory of a ma-
jority of pro-administration candidates in the 6 December
congressional election in Guatemala has led the moderate
leftist Revolutionary party (PR) to announce its refusal to ac-
cept the election outcome. PR leaders have publicized a
number of specific charges of fraud and plan to challenge in
the courts the electoral results in a number of constituencies.
They also plan protest demonstrations and antigovernment
disorders.
On 9 December, PR leader Mario Mendez Montenegro
asked a leader of the antigovernment faction of the rightist
Nationalist Democratic Movement (MDN) to support PR tac-
tics, The MDN lead-
er did not give a firm reply, but is reported to have requested
another meeting. The MDN, suffering an internal rift covertly
fostered by President Ydigoras just before the election, has
also bitterly attacked the government's election tactics. The
murder of an MDN official on 8 December, allegedly by gov-
ernment agents, has added to its anger, and an MDN-associated
veterans' organization has declared that it will tolerate no more
abuse from the government.
Some violence may occur if demonstrations are attempted,
and MDN groups may resume the terroristic tactics they used
occasionally last summer and fall. The government, however,
does not appear immediately threatened. On 10 December all
public demonstrations were prohibited, and the police and the
army are likely to be used to prevent serious disorders.
In the long run, Ydigoras may weaken his own position by
antagonizing the strong leftist forces in Guatemala. His tactics
may also weaken the anti-Communist leaders now heading the
dominant PR and enhance Communist 7fforts to win control of
leftist political forces.
ofr
12 Dec 59
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Director, Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Director, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Chairman, Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
CONFIDENTIAL
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