CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/12/28

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03007366
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: December 28, 1959

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28 December 1959
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CENTRAL
TELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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28 DECEMBER 1959
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Indonesia gives Chinese Communist let-
ter cool reception; Djakarta may be plan-
ning to close Bank of China branches in
Indonesia. 0
India�Prospects appear good for anti-
Communist parties in February election
in Kerala State.
Iraq plans military exercises with live
ammunition in two areas alone Iranian
border; increase in tension expected,
III� THE WEST
Brazilian Government planning action
against leftist agitation; Ambassador
Cabot notes popular unrest, sees possi-
bility of leftist uprising or coup attempt. (9
LATE ITEM
0 Laos�Political maneuvering continues,
SECRET-
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
28 December 1959
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
II. AM-AFRICA
Indonesia - Communist China: Djakarta's reception of
Chinese Communist Foreign Minister Chen Yrs letter of 24
December has been cool, and Indonesia continues to show no
disposition to make concessions to Peiping. In fact, one re-
port alleges that Indonesia may be preparing to restrict Chi-
nese economic activities further by closing Bank of China
branches in Indonesia in January. Chen Yi's letter made a
"specific proposarthat the two countries promptly exchange
ratification instruments of the dual nationality treaty signed
in 1955, and appointed Peiping's ambassador in Djakarta as
senior Chinese delegate to a committee to implement the treaty.
Chen Yi made no other new proposals for settling the dispute,
but implied Peiping's recognition of the necessity to "adjust the
economic position of Overseas Chinese in Indonesia.!'
India: As campaigning for the special election in Kerala
State on 1 February gets under way, the anti-Communist par-
ties together seem capable of defeating the Communists by a
substantial margin. The "United Democratic Front" formed by
the anti-Communist parties will deny the Communists their usual
opportunity to win a disproportionate number of assembly seats by
\,/...,---- splitting the non-Communist vote. Disillusionment with the Com-
munist party in Kerala as a result of its performance while in of-
fice and the reaction of Indian Communists to the Sino-Indian
border dispute hAs also improved the prospects of the Congress
party and its allies. However, communal antagonisms and latent
personal rivalries among the anti-Communist forces could still
narrow their margin of victory, and almost certainly will com-
plicate efforts to form an effective coalition government following
�the election. (Page 1)
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Iraq-Iran: Iraqi military forces, including tank, artillery,
and air force units, have been ordered to prepare for exercises
with live ammunition in two areas along the Iranian border--
near Khaniqin, 100 miles northeast of Baghdad, and along the
Matt al-Arab River near Basra. This move appears to be a re-
action to
the arrival of Iranian reinforcements in the
Abadan-Khorramshahr area. These exercises will add to the
tension between Iran and Iraq and increase the likelihood of in-
cidents between the opPosing forces.
III. THE WEST
Brazil: rope of President Kubitschek's principal advisers
told the US Embassy last week that the Brazilian Government is
greatly disturbed over the unrest and strikes being stirred up by
Vice-President Goulart's Labor party and the Communists, and
that immediate vigorous action is planned to block them. Ambas-
sador Cabot feels that the Kubitschek government may be exag-
gerating the dangers of the situation and the extent of Labor party
and Communist agitation, but the ambassador considers the sit-
uation so "nervous" as a result of food shortages and rising liv-
ing costs that a leftist uprising or a coup would "not be altogether
surprising.'n
LATE ITEM
*Laos: The young reformist group-- the Committee for the
Defense of National Interests (CDNI)-- and Premier Phoui con-
tinue to maneuver for political advantage. Following the pres-
entation of demands by the CDNI on 26 December, Phoui has
agreed to ask the King's approval to allow the present government
to resign and be reappointed in a caretaker status. This action
would accept the CDNI argument that the present regime is uncon-
stitutional. The CDNI would not participate in the government,
but would play an influential role in preparing for future elections.
However, the outcome of even this temporary compromise pro-
posal depends largely on the King's attitude, and the basic polit-
ical dispute must be regarded as still unresolved:IL
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L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
IL ASIA-AFRICA
� Mid-Term Election Prospects in India's Kerala State Favor
The Anti-Communist Front
As campaigning for the special election in Kerala State
on 1 February gets under way, the anti-Communist parties
together seem capable of defeating the Communists by a sub-
stantial margin. The elections will be held under President's
Rule, imposed when the Communist state government was dis-
missed on 31 July.
The expensive lessons learned by Congress and Socialist
party politicians following their defeat in the 1957 elections
apparently are paying dividends. Congress leaders have taken
firm steps to recondition the party and correct the chronic
weaknesses that permitted the Communists to come to power.
Congress election workers for the first time are organizing
down to the precinct level. In addition, the apparently firm
agreement establishing a "United Democratic Front"--under
which leaders of the Congress party, the Praja Socialists, and
the Moslem League have allocated the constituencies each group
will contest--denies the Communists their previous opportunity
to win a disproportionate number of seats by splitting the non-
Communist vote. The anti-Communist front will also benefit
from active support of the Hindu and Christian communal organ-
izations which led the successful agitation against the Commu-
nist government last summer.
Widespread disillusionment with the Communist party in
Kerala has been the main factor in improving its opponents'
prospects. The reputation of the party, already seriously
damaged by its policies while in office, has been further down-
graded as a result of its national leadership's "unpatriotic" re-
action to the India-China border dispute.
28 Dec 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCF Rill I FTIN
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The Communists, however, are not likely to be routed.
They remain the best organized and best financed group in
Kerala. Party workers have been propagandizing vigorously
since August, and already have an impressive campaign ap-
paratus in the field. Moreover, the personal rivalries and
communal antagonisms traditional in Kerala politics lie just
beneath the surface of the "united" democratic front. These
weaknesses could still narrow the margin of victory for anti-
Communist elements and almost certainly will complicate the
problem of forming an effective coalition government after the
elections.
28 Dec 59
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
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Writ lutry f 1 A L
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Director, Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Director, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Chairman, Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
CONFIDENTIAL
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