CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/12/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03009172
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: December 2, 1954

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2 December 1954
Copy No.
80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. TO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I-1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE � /:;'/C)
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 7/1/90 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Pyongyang proposes meeting with South Korea to plan restoring
communications (page 3).
SOUTH ASIA
2. Pakistani prime minister out of favor with ruling clique (page 4
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on reported Iranian-Soviet agreement (page 4).
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Bulgaria suggests demarcation of Bulgarian-Turkish border
(page 5).
LATE ITEM
5. Comment on Moscow security conference (page 6)0
* * * *
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FAR EAST
,1. Pyongyang proposes meeting with South Korea to plan restoring
communications:
North Korean minister of communica-
tions Pak in a letter to South
Korea's communications minister dated
30 November, invited Seoul officials to a preliminary meeting
at Panmunjom on 17 December to plan for an exchange of mail
and the reopening of other communications between the north and
the south, according to Pyongyang radio.
Stating that there was "no reason at all"
to prevent such communications merely because the Korean peo-
ple "are divided between north and south," Pak also called for a
conference at Panmunjom or Kaesong in February 1955 to discuss
substantive problems connected with the exchanges.
Comment: This is the latest North Korean
move to bring about a rapprochement with the south through direct
contacts with South Korean officials. Since late October, Pyong-
yang has reiterated and enlarged on previous tentative offers to
trade, has guaranteed freedom of travel to Seoul officials invited
north to discuss vnification, and has called for a north-south con-
ference on unification at Seoul or Panmunjom during 1955.
While President Rhee has rejected all
previous North Korean overtures, he has on numerous occasions
used the threat of negotiations with the Communists as a bargain-
ing lever in dealing with Washington. In early November, Rhee
was considering answering the Communist overtures with a plan
calling for north-south negotiations after Chinese and UN forces
withdrew from Korea.
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SOUTH ASIA
2. Pakistani prime minister out of favor with ruling clique:
Comment:
Pakistan's ruling group is again considering removing Moham-
mad All as prime minister. Ghulam Mohammad wanted to remove
Ali from his post at the time of the cabinet shake-up. If Ali is
collaborating with the dissident groups, both Mirza and Defense
Minister Ayub Khan are likely to agree with the governor general.
If the group does remove Ali, Mirza
will probably succeed him. The group would be most unlikely to
consider another "front" man after its recent experiences with
All and would probably insist on holding key positions directly.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Comment on reported Iranian-Soviet agreement:
An Iranian-Soviet treaty settling border
and financial disputes, reportedly to be
signed before the Shah leaves for the
United States on 5 December, would re-
move major difficulties which have dis-
turbed relations between the two coun-
tries for many years. The negotiations,
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which started under former prime minister Mossadeq, have been
going on intermittently for about 18 months.
The treaty would define the Iranian-
Soviet border and provide for demarcation of disputed areas by a
joint commission within 18 months, according to the Iranian For-
eign Ministry official in charge of Soviet affairs. The 11 tons of
gold (worth about $12,000,000) claimed by Iran would be delivered
within two weeks of the ratification and the $8,700,000 of credits
due Iran would be paid by the USSR in the form of goods to be
delivered within a year.
The USSR apparently is not insisting on
compensatory political commitments from Iran. In view of Iran's
growing Western orientation, Moscow may believe that an amica-
ble settlement with Iran at this time would be convincing evidence
of its peaceful intentions and its proclaimed policy of "coexistence!'
Moscow probably hopes that such a gesture would also be instru-
mental in keeping Iran from making further commitments to the
West.
The Zahedi government would probably
be strengthened by its success in achieving the payment of the gold
and obligations which the USSR has owed Iran since World War IL
However, the generally pro-Western orientation of the government
is not likely to be affected.
EASTERN EUROPE
4. Bulgaria suggests demarcation of Bulgarian-Turkish border:
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Comment: The present co-operative
Bulgarian attitude reflects thefl Communists' current generally
conciliatory policy and apparently is, in part, a reply to a Turk-
ish suggestion to form committees for the
study of joint problems. A specific objective may be to reduce
the need felt by the Balkan Pact countries for the implementation
of the Balkan military alliance of August 1954. Bulgaria con-
cluded border agreements with Yugoslavia in February 1954 and
with Greece in December 1953.
LATE ITEM
5. Comment on Moscow security conference:
The emphasis at the opening sessions
of the Moscow conference on the neces-
sity for the Orbit countries to strengthen
and unite their armed forces to meet the threat of West German
rearmament is intended to stimulate second thoughts in the West
on the desirability of ratifying the Paris agreements.
The nature of the measures which the
Orbit might take has not been clarified, nor has any timetable
been indicated, but Moscow will move cautiously so as not to im-
pel speedier Western ratification.
It appears that the Soviet Union plans
eventually to establish an Orbit defense organization as a counter-
measure to NATO. However, creation of a combined command for
the military forces of Eastern Europe, should that occur, would
neither affect the direct control maintained by the Soviet Union
over all activities of the Satellite armed forces nor add signifi-
cantly to the degree of integration which already exists.
Premier Grotewohl threatened specifi-
cally that East Germany would counter the establishment of a West
German army by creating one of its own. Moscow may believe
that creation of a strong East German military establishment
could be more easily justified if its forces were subordinated to
a regional command.
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An all-European security plan is likely
to be approved in Moscow and to be followed by a strong propa-
ganda campaign for the participation of Western countries. Molo-
tov's opening speech implied that a special effort would be made
to attract those non-NATO countries whiqh conditionaly rejected
the invitation to the Moscow conference.
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