CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/12/05

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03009175
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: December 5, 1954

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5 December 1954
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO ._7?
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Cl DECLASSIFIED
CLASS: CHANGED TO: TS S 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE. 20/O
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE. 7-7/./80 REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
wy, weiA
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. USSR reported preparing conference of returned emigres (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Peiping preparing for larger role in Sino-Soviet civil air company
(page 4).
3. Comment on Peiping reaction to US security pact with Chinese
Nationalists (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4.
WESTERN EUROPE
5. Western powers seen divided over future NATO-WEU relation-
ships (page 6).
6. Mendes- France confident of surviving North African debate (page 7).
7. France threatens evacuation of South Vietnam (page 7).
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SOVIET UNION
I. USSR reported preparing conference of returned emigres:
The American consul general in Munich
reports that during the last few days ru-
mors have been rife that the Kremlin is
preparing soon to stage a conference in
Moscow of emigres who have "re-defected" to the USSR. The con-
sul general believes that such a development would be an extremely
clever move on the part of the Soviet Union at this time because
emigre morale is at a nadir.
The recent murder of a prominent emigre
who had refused to re-defect has heightened the fears of emigres
that such refusal marks them for elimination. The United States
is reported receiving the brunt of criticism for its indifference to
the dangers which emigres undergo in serving the United States.
Comment: There has recently been a
marked increase in the tempo of Soviet efforts to induce re-defection.
According to one report a general amnesty of Soviet emigres is be-
ing seriously considered in Moscow.
The USSR has always sought to penetrate
and subvert the emigre organizations. Intensification of this ef-
fort plus the increased use of blandishments may be motivated both
by a desire to reduce American influence among emigres and by
the low state of their morale.
Propaganda exploitation of re-defectors
would partially offset the loss of face caused by recent widely
publicized Soviet defections, and would have the further effect of
undermining mutual confidence between the United States and the
emigres.
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FAR EAST
2. Peiping preparing for larger role in Sino-Soviet civil air company:
use
of Chinese personnel in this company had previously been limited
to such duties as ground support personnel and administrative offi-
cials.
stock companies
Comment: SKOGA is one of four joint
to be turned over to the Chinese
Since it is the only scheduled airline on routes between Communist
China and the USSR, its operations may not be wholly taken over
by the Chinese civil air fleet, but may instead be shared with the
Soviet civil air fleet. /
3� Comment on Peiping reaction to US security pact with Chinese
Nationalists:
Peiping's first comment on the new mutual
security treaty between the United States
and Nationalist China suggests that the
Chinese Communists view the pact as an
expected formalization of the existing American commitment to the
defense of Formosa and the Pescadores. This comment also suggests,
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however, continuing Communist uncertainty as to American policy
with respect to defense of the major Nationalist-held offshore islands.
The People's Daily, official newspaper of
the Chinese Communist party, denounces the treaty in conventional
terms. The paper reaffirms that Communist China will "liberate"
Formosa and that any attempt to block the operation would be "fla-
grant interference." It concludes that the United States "must be
responsible for all consequences that may arise" from the pact, but
it does not repeat the earlier assertion that the United States would
be responsible "should an over-all conflict in the Far East be pro-
voked."
Since last July Chinese Communist clamor
for the "liberation" of Formosa has greatly increased, Neverthe-
less all official pronouncements have indicated, and continue to
indicate, that Peiping believes an extended period of preparation
will be necessary before a military operation can be launched.
The Chinese Communists are apparently seeking, in the meantime,
to isolate the United States on the issue of support for Nationalist
China,
The People's Daily observes that the
treaty "will provide for the inclusion 153Weement of other terri-
tories . " The Chinese Communists almost certainly hoped,
and may have expected, that the treaty would clarify specific
American intentions as regards the offshore islands. As such
clarification was not forthcoming, it seems likely that Peiping will
undertake further probing actions designed to test American inten-
tions.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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WESTERN EUROPE
5. �Western powers seen divided over future NATO-WEU relationships:
Comment: The present French govern-
ment must obtain a large role for WEU in order to gain votes for
the Paris agreements among those French deputies who are primar-
ily concerned over the control of German rearmament. The British,
however, wish to avoid unnecessary duplication between WEU and
NATO activities. They apparently have strong support among the
smaller. Continental countries, which view the projected WEU organ-
ization as an improper vehicle for the supranational integration of
Europe for which they still hope.
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6. Mendes- France confident of surviving North African debate:
French premier Mendes-France told
Ambassador Dillon in Paris on 2 Decem-
ber that the Algerian situation is "much
better" and that he expects to get through
the North African debate in the assembly by 10 December "without
too much trouble." The ambassador has the impression that Mendes-
France would prefer that the slow-moving negotiations on Tunisia
not be completed before 10 December. He said that the substantial
French concessions planned would rouse "very acrimonious" assem-
bly reaction.
He said that before debate on the Paris
accords opens on 20 December, he needs to be able to show the
assembly that something is being done to carry out "parallel" nego-
tiations with the East. According to the premier, the assembly's
foreign affairs committee had pressed him hard concerning con-
crete steps on preparations for a possible four-power conference
in the spring. He argued that a demarche in Moscow, whether
unilateral or tripartite, to follow up his UN suggestion for a con-
ference on Austria was "most urgent."
Comment: Mendes- France appears
more optimistic concerning his chances for surviving the North
African debate and for securing an absolute majority for the Paris
accords than many observers.
Even though a French approach to Moscow
will probably be limited to soundings as to the prospect of nego-
tiations after the Paris accords are ratified, it will enable Mendes-
France to counter such pressure as De Gaulle's call on 4 December
for East-West talks before the Paris accords come into effect.
7. France threatens evacuation of South Vietnam:
French minister for the Associated
States La Chambre told Ambassador
Dillon on 2 December that unless a sta-
ble and strong government is functioning
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in South Vietnam by 15 January, France will have to evacuate. He
said a stable and strong government could be either a reorganized
Diem government with competent ministers of defense and interior,
or a new government.
La Chambre said the French estimate
that the civilian population to be evacuated to France will run to
300,000 or 400,000, including French families and those Vietna-
mese who are compromised by their pro-French attitude or who
want to be evacuated. The French expeditionary corps could be
removed only after evacuation of the civilians was completed. The
operation, he saidlwould probably take a year.
Comment: French officials are appar-
ently using every possible-a-RTC-To-coerce the United States into
a greater recognition of France's primary position in Indochina,
both in terms of dollar aid and the maintenance of French eco-
nomic and cultural influence. A spokesman for La Chambre had
earlier stressed the shortness of time left for solving South Viet-
nams problems.
The French see General Collins' recom-
mendations for reducing the size of the Vietnamese army and the
expeditionary corps as cutting the dollar aid they will receive and
have stated that this cut gives them license to withdraw French
troops as they see fit.
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