CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/01/09

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03015192
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: January 9, 1958

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INTELLIGENCE
44_ REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This document contains classified information affecting
the national security of the United States within the
meaning of the espionage laws, US Code Title 18, Sections
793, 794, and 798. The law prohibits its transmission
or the revelation of its contents in any manner to an un-
authorized person, as well as its use in any manner
prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States
or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detri-
ment of the United States.
�TOP S
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CONTENTS
. SOVIET NUCLEAR EXPLOSION
lk% (page 3).
04)3. INDONESIAN DISSIDENTS CONSIDERING IMMEDIATE
I)ECLAR.. ATION_OF_INDEPENDENT GOVERNMENT
(page 5).
4. NETHERLANDS SffEKS_NiLTO SOLIDARITY ON INDONESIAN
ARMS REQUESTS (page 6).
5. IRAN THREATENING TO WITHDRAW FROM THE BAGHDAD
PACT (page 7).
4)6. SHAH OF IRAN MAY SOON REPLACE PRIME MINISTER
0 EQBAL (page 8).
67. CLOSE CO
ELECTION
OKINAWA MAYORAL
(page 9).
IL 8. SOVIET OFFER OF SPECIALIZED POLICE TRAINING TO
AFGHANISTAN (page 10).
(t 9. YEMEN CONSIDERING $35,000,000 SOVIET ECONOMIC
CREDIT (page 11).
03,10. BLANKENHORN NAMED TO KEY BONN FOREIGN POLICY
POST (page 12).
* * * *
TT-IR 'TA TUT A IkT
!TRAIT
(page 13)
9 Jan 58
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1. SOVIET NUCLEAR EXPLOSION
The Atomic Energy Detection System
has reported that another Soviet nuclear
explosion occurred between 3 and 5 Jan-
uary 1958 at the Semipalatinsk proving
ground. Limited evidence suggests that the device was in
the very low yield range.
Comment
The last Soviet test was held at Semi-
palatinsk on 28 December 1957 and yielded
between 3 and 30 kilotons. The closure of the Semipalatinsk
Airfield on 4 January suggests the test may have been conducted
on that date.
9 Jan 58
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2.
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3. INDONESIAN DISSIDENTS CONSIDERING IMMEDIATE
DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENT GOVERNMENT
Comment on:
Dissident military commanders meet-
ing in Padang, Sumatra, are consider-
ing the establishment of a "free govern-
ment of Indonesia" in the immediate
future unless the Djakarta government makes drastic con-
cessions. The Djuanda cabinet recognizes the serious
secessionist threat and is discussing how to meet it.
Although Colonel Simbolon, former
Sumatran commander and now chief of the dissidents' com-
bined Sumatra command, has urged caution and at least an
intermediate step of declaring de facto regional autonomy,
other leaders are impatient at further delay. Final decisions
may be reached on 9 January.
Lt. Col. Barlian, commander in South
Sumatra, favors an ultimatum to the present Djakarta gov-
ernment demanding that it resign and form a cabinet accept-
able to the outer islands. The most impatient among those
at Padang are Lt. Col. Hussein, commander in Central
Sumatra, and Lt. Col. Sumual from Celebes.
Colonel Simbolon has stated that those at-
tending the Padang meetings do not understand the economic
and diplomatic difficulties of the move they are considering.
Simbolon's primary concern is probably the fact that the non-
Javanese provinces are still receiving their customary budget-
ary support from Djakarta, and that drastic and immediate
changes in financial and commercial patterns would be neces-
sary to replace these funds.
9 Jan 58
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4. NETHERLANDS SEEKS NATO SOLIDARITY ON INDONESIAN
ARMS REQUESTS
Comment on:
The Netherlands Government, in a further
move to assure support from its NATO
partners in the dispute with Indonesia, has
requested that any NATO member approached
by Indonesia regarding arms should ask the Dutch for their views.
At a meeting of the NATO political advisers' committee on 7
January, the Dutch representative stated that his government
does not deny Djakarta the right to defend itself, but noted that
Indonesia now "openly proclaims it is seeking other means" to
satisfy its claim to West New Guinea. He expressed particular
concern over weapons which might be used in an invasion of
New Guinea, such as military aircraft, parachutes, and land-
ing craft.
Ambassador Burgess in Paris has previously
stated that sympathy for the general Dutch position is virtually
unanimous in NATO, and that "words or actions" which seem to
condone recent Indonesian actions would not be welcomed by the
Netherlands' NATO allies. Ambassador Allison in Djakarta,
however, is convinced that unless Western assistance is imme-
diately forthcoming, Indonesia will fall to the Communists.
9 Jan 58
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5 IRAN THREATENING TO WITHDRAW FROM
THE BAGHDAD PACT
Comment on:
The Shah has again expressed dissatis-
faction with Iranian military strength,
blaming the limited US aid program. He
contends that without additional American
aid, Iran will lima it difficult to remain within the Baghdad
Pact, because rejection by the US of the Baghdad Pact Mil-
itary Committee's recommended level of forces would allow
Soviet troops to advance deep into Iran despite nuclear retal-
iation on targets in the USSR.
While the Shah's threat is part of a con-
tinuing program to increase his prestige and domestic con-
trol through additional US military aid, it reflects a genuine
concern over Iran's exposed position vis-a-vis the USSR.
The importance attached by the United States to the Baghdad
Pact Council meeting in Ankara beginning on 27 January may
reassure the Shah.
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8, SHAH OF IRAN MAY SOON REPLACE PRIME
MINISTER EQBAL
Comment on:
C
The Shah of Iran is seriously consider-
ing removing Prime Minister Eqbal after
the Baghdad Pact Council meeting from
27 to 31 January,
Both Abdollah Entezam, director of the
National Iranian Oil Company, and Senator Mahmud Jam,
prime minister from 1935 through 1939, are being consid-
ered for the premiership. Court Minister Ala recently de-
clined the Shah's offer of the position because of his age.
The Shah Ilas been dissatisfied with Eqbal
primarily because he failed to assume leadership of a pro-
government political party and refused to accept responsi-
bility for some of the Shah's domestic programs. Any change
in premiers will not mean, however, that the Shah will dimin-
ish his personal direction of the government. Eqbal, who be-
came prime minister last April, threatened to resign if the
Shah did not give him more freedom of action. He has remained
in office, however, apparently in the hope that he might persuade
the Shah to take a less active role.
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7. CLOSE CONTEST EXPECTED IN OKINAWA
MAYORAL ELECTION
Comment on:
A close contest is expected in the Naha,
Okinawa, mayoral election on 23 Jan-
uary. The conservative-Socialist coalition
candidate, Tatsuo Taira, would make an
effective mayor, but his campaign is being hampered by the
lukewarm support of a conservative party boss. Far-left
candidate Saichi Kaneshi, who received more votes than any
other candidate in last August's Naha city assembly election,
is expected to attract the leftist and anti-American vote.
Kaneshi and his supporters have superior organizing ability
and are demonstrating their astuteness as campaigners.
The election was necessitated by the ouster
of pro-Communist Mayor ICamejiro Senaga last November.
9 Jan 58
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8. SOVIET OFFER OF SPECIALIZED POLICE TRAINING
TO AFGHANISTAN
Comment on:
The USSR may be seeking to counter an
American program for specialized train.
ing of Afghan police by offering compar-
able training in the USSR.
Afghan Prime Minister Daud has
approvea a soviet proposal that he send ten police officials,
probably from the counterintelligence department, to the
USSR for training at Soviet expense. Daud may have ac-
cepted in the hope of obtaining maximum benefit for Afghan-
istan from the techniques of both the United States and the
USSR.
The American Embassy in Kabul has noted
that the 15 policemen who have returned from training in the
United States have been treated by the Afghan Government with
reserve. Daud may believe that comparable caution in handling
police officers trained in the USSR will provide adequate pro-
tection against Soviet subversion.
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9. YEMEN CONSIDERING $35 000 000 SOVIET
ECONOMIC CREDIT
Comment on:
Yemen is reported to have been offered a
Soviet credit of approximately 05,000,000
for economic development projects over a
five-year period. Specific aid projects in-
clude development of a modern port at Ras
al-ICathib and construction of seven airfields
and fuel storage facilities. Yemeni
expect the agree-
ment to be signed shortly possibly during
the scheduled presentation of credentials
this month by the Soviet ambassador0
preliminary work on the port has been un-
der way since April 1957 and that additional Soviet harbor special-
ists arrived in Yemen in December. Construction of a modern
port and fuel storage facilities would help eliminate Yemen's de-
pendence on the British-controlled port of Aden. Reconstruction
of Yemen's airfields is essential to permit efficient use of Yemen's
735 to 40 Soviet bloc piston aircraft and to improve poor internal
communications. Yemen is also trying to obtain petroleum prod-
ucts from the Soviet Union instead of from Aden and Saudi Arabia.
The Soviet credit offer is apparently in addi-
tion to aid projects undertaken by various satellite countries, and
to Soviet military aid totaling .5-10,000,000. A substantial por-
tion of the arms has been provided as a gift, with the balance cov-
ered by easy repayment terms.
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10. BLANKENHORN NAMED TO KEY BONN FOREIGN
POLICY POST
Comment on:
Herbert Blankenhorn, named on 7 Janu-
ary to the second-ranking post in the West
German Foreign Ministry, seems likely
to press for a more "elastic" foreign
policy, including less dependence on the United States. The
53-year-old Blankenhorn has been close to Chancellor Ade-
nauer in various key foreign policy jobs since 1949, most
recently as Bonn's representative to the North Atlantic Coun-
cil.
Blankenhorn, who joined the German for-
eign service in 1929 and the Nazi party in 1938, has been
describect as "not entirely trustworthy."
he heads a faction
in the Foreign Ministry which has strongly opposed Foreign
Minister Brentano's foreign policy as too rigid.
this faction tried last year to convince Adenauer
sic reorientation was needed.
lankenhorn faction considers NATO a convenlent de-
vice for achieving "our comeback into world politics," and also
sees the need to "build our bridges to the East" and reduce de-
pendence on the West, while at the same time "maintaining a
position in which the West will be forced to stand behind us in
the case of a military threat."
Blankenhorn replaces Walter Hallstein, who
will head the Common Market. Heinz Krekeler, named to
EURATOM, will be replaced as ambassador in Washington, and
other major shifts may occur, including the replacement of the
ambassadors in Moscow and Tokyo.
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SUMMARY
12 December 1957 - 8 January 1958
THE TAIWAN STRAIT
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Taiwan Strait Problem
1. There were no siznificant military developments in the
area during the period.
2. Nationalist Chief of Staff Wang Shu-ming on 13 December
informed Admiral Doyle, commander of the US Taiwan Defense
Command, that British shipping will no longer be shelled while
entering and leaving the Communist port of Amoy. Wang indi-
cated that the previous policy of attempting to prevent entry had
gained the Nationalist Government nothing and caused it to lose
prestige. This change of policy, although Wang did not say so,
probably was made last August when firing at British shipping
abruptly ceased.
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