CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/07/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017425
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: July 25, 1954

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25 July 1954
Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO -CS
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. V
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: .e�t")/
AUTH: HR. 70-2
DATE; REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Comment on Soviet proposal of 24 July (page 3).
2. Portugal will defend its territories against attack from Indian
soil (page 4).
SOVIET UNION
3. Moscow embassy comments on execution of M. D. Ryumin (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Communists pleased with "neutralization" campaign in Southeast
Asia (page 5).
5. Growing threat of Vietnamese violence against Frenchmen noted
(page 6).
6. Thailand may look to Communist China as market for surplus rice
(page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. No change seen in French Communist support for Mendes-France
(page 8).
LATIN AMERICA
9. Two Costa Rican towns :reported raided by rebel band (page 8).
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OENERAL
1. Comment on 'Soviet proposal of 24 July:
The immediate objective of the Soviet pro-
posal of 24 July appears to be to prevent
French ratification of EDC. Its probable
longer-term objectives are to encourage ele-
ments in the British Labor Party and in West Germany which oppose
German rearmament, and to isolate the United States. The wording of
the proposal suggests that even if the Western European nations reject
the idea of an all-European conference on the question of collective
security, the USSR will organize some form of meeting as a means of
keeping the issue alive.
The notes to the Western big three, all temper-
ate in tone, exploit the usual themes of the arms race, American bases,
and "war propaganda." Moscow points to the Geneva conference as "proof"
that negotiations can be successful. As an additional lure, a reference to
economic co-operation is included.
Ambassador Dillon has stated that the Indochina
cease-fire "may well induce" a mood in France receptive to Soviet four-
power conference proposals on European "security," and there is accumu-
lating evidence that French public opinion is already favorably disposed.
Although Mendes-France is believed to be pro-Western in orientation, his
more neutralist-minded advisers can be expected to try to exploit the at-
mosphere resulting from the Indochina truce. Paris' final reaction to the
present Soviet proposal may be largely determined by whether the French
can avoid the appearance of being dictated to in replying to the overture.
Certain elements in West Germany are favorably
disposed toward negotiations with Moscow, and at their recent convention
the opposition Social Democrats made a European security system a condi-
tion for their approval of German rearmament. Despite the growing body
of neutralist opinion, however, Chancellor Adenauer can be expected to
hold his government coalition firmly in the Western camp.
The British public, especially left-wing Labor-
ites and other elements who have growing doubts about rearming West
Germany, will probably take to the Soviet note more kindly than the present
Conservative government. Britain rejected the 31 March Soviet proposals
to which the most recent statement appears to add little. The Soviet sug-
gestions bear only a superficial resemblance to Churchill's "master thought"
about Locarno-type pacts, and Churchill can hardly regard this as a call
for "a meeting at the summit'
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2. Portugal will defend its territories against attack from Indian soil:
3.
The Portuguese Foreign Ministry informed
the American embassy on 23 July that
Portugal would defend the immediate en-
virons of the coastal cities of Goa, Damao,
and Diu against attack by "volunteers" based
in India. The ministry added, however, that
Portugal could not offer effective resistance
in isolated enclaves separated by Indian territory from the main coastal
cities.
The Indian government announced on 23 July
that it had denied a Portuguese request for permission to move troops
from Damao to the inland village of Dadra, which was occupied by
"volunteers" on 22 July.
Comment: Armed clashes between Portu-
guese troops and India-based "volunteers" seem inevitable since India,
encouraged by success against the French enclaves, has apparently
decided to take over as much Portuguese territory as possible.
The 3,000-odd Portuguese troops on the sub-
continent are probably capable of handling any situation in the immediate
environs of Goa, Damao, and Diu unless Indian military forces become
involved under the guise of "volunteers" or as part of a "police action."
At the request of the Portuguese, an informal session of the North
Atlantic Council has been scheduled for 26 July.
SOVIET UNION
Moscow embassy comments on execution of M. D. Ryumin:
The trial and execution of M. a Ryumin,
former chief of the investigation section of
the Soviet Ministry of State Security, who
was denounced and arrested in April 1953
at the time of the repudiation of the doctors' plot, recalls that case to
public attention more than a year after it appeared to be closed.
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'4�110
The Kremlin's action may, according to the
American embassy in Moscow, be intended as reassurance to the public
that the present committee on state security (KGB) will not have arbi-
trary power over the lives of Soviet citizens as did the former 1VIGB.
The action may also be intended as a warning to Soviet police officials
that methods used under Stalin and Berta will no longer be tolerated.
Comment: While the embassy's interpreta-
tion appears to be the most plausible, it is also possible that Ryumin's
execution is a move against the group within the party presidium that
was behind the original plot. Of the present rulers, Malenkov was per-
haps most closely identified with the plot, and it is possible that he is
the ultimate target.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Communists pleased with "neutralization" campaign in Southeast Asia:
A Chinese Communist journalist at Geneva
is quoted as
declaring, "We have won the Iirst campaign
for the neutralization of all Southeast Asia."
witirea burchett, correspondent for the London Daily Worker, is said
to have added that neutralization of this area, where "only Thailand"
can now be called "hostile" to Peiping, is "most important for continuing
a kind of co-existence without war."
Comment: Communist propaganda in the
past few days has emphasized that Indochina cannot now join any
"aggressive grouping," and has suggested that further "defeats" are in
store for American policy in the Far East.
The campaign for "neutralization" of South-
east Asia was actually well under way in 1951, and enjoyed several
successes prior to Geneva. Chinese Communist propaganda regularly
denounces the Philippines as well as Thailand, apparently in the belief
that there is little neutralist sentiment in those governments to be ex-
ploited.
TnT) SPiPT
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5. Growing threat of Vietnamese violence against Frenchmen noted:
Many extreme nationalists are advocating a
campaign of anti-French terrorism, a Viet-
namese official in North Vietnam told the
American consul on 22 July. The consul
anticipates a sharp rise in anti-French
sentiment and sees the possibility of at-
tacks against individuals by Vietnamese
nationalists or Wet Minh terrorists.
In southern Vietnam, there has as yet been
no violent reaction to the Geneva settlement, but French officials are
apprehensive and the American embassy believes Vietnamese attitudes
toward the French may become progressively embittered.
Comment: Premier Mendes- France told
the French National Assembly�onM july that he had instructed the
high commissioner in Vietnam to turn over all administrative functions
to local authorities without delay. How this order is carried out lo-
cally will be of critical importance in determining not only the Viet-
namese attitude toward local Frenchmen, but also the ability of south-
ern Vietnam to develop political and military strength vis-a-vis the
Viet Minh.
6. Thailand may look to Communist China as market for surplus rice:
Thailand's rice exports for the first half of
1954 were 481, 000 tons as compared to
720,000 tons for the same period last year.
The American embassy in Bangkok notes that
with the prospect of a very heavy carryover, the situation is becoming
steadily more serious.
A Thai Foreign Ministry official has told an
American embassy officer that he expects increased pressure on the
government to permit resumption of nonstrategic trade with Communist
China, particularly rice, as a result of the Indochina truce. The
embassy doubts, however, that Thailand would resume this trade with-
out at least tacit American approval.
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Comment: Declining rice exports during
the past year have presented both Thailand and Burma with serious
economic problems. These were largely responsible for Burma's de-
cision to open negotiations for trade.agreewentS� with Moscow and
Peiping last year. A Burmese agreement with Peiping was concluded
this spring but it has not yet resulted in any trade.
Communist China at present exports rice
and would be unlikely to purchase rice from Thailand except for politi-
cal reasons.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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WESTERN EUROPE
8. No change seen in French Communist support for Mendes-France:
No clear indication of a possible breaking
point in Communist support of Premier
Mendes- France was evident in the 22 July
speech in Paris by French Communist
waxier Jacques uucios, according to Ambassador Dillon. Dillon be-
lieves that the major objective of Communist policy is still to wreck
Western unity, and that French Communists "may go some distance"
before risking the return to power of political elements regarded as
subservient to the United States.
Dillon doubts that the Communists will
make a crucial issue of the North African situation despite Duclos'
call for ending "colonial terrorism." Duclos also called for popular
economic reforms, to be financed by savings from a proposed cut in
the military service term.
LATIN AMERICA
9. Two Costa Rican towns reported raided by rebel band:
nes at two points,and s
Followers of former Costa Rican president
Calderon Guardia reportedly attacked the
Costa Rican towns of Vara Blanca and
Cariblanco early on 23 July, cut telegraph
ole a number of trucks.
0:n 24 July the Costa Rican vice minister of
public security stated, that no
further outbreaks had occurred, but that Costa Ricans who had witnessed
the attacks quoted the raiders as stating 2,000 additional men would come
from Nicaragua to join them.,
The attackers, estimated by witnesses to
number about 25 poorly armed men, were reported early on 24 July to
be moving north toward the Nicaraguan border with elements of the
Costa Rican civil guard in pursuit.
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Comment: These raids, though by an
apparently small and lsolafd group, could be the prelude to a long-
rumored attempt to overthrow the Figueres administration of Costa
Rica by Nicaragua and Venezuela operating through followers of
Calderon Guardia. About 40 miles of underpopulated and under-
developed territory lie between the Nicaraguan border and the two
towns reportedly attacked, which are on the fringes of Costa Rica's
populous central plateau.
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