CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/08/04

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017429
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: August 4, 1954

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4 August 1954
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 6
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 20/0
AUTFI: HR 70-2
DATE: Wi REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
7:(1.P---SECIZET
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. India reported planning Southeast Asian regional pact without West
(page 3).
2. Indian appointees to Indochina commission believed pro-Western
(page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iraq will seek early revision of treaty with Britain (page 4
LATIN AMERICA
4. Comment on situation in Guatemala (page 4).
* * * *
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GENERAL
1. India reported planning Southeast Asian regional pact without West:
Prime Minister Nehru is planning to submit to
the Colombo powers a proposal for a regional
alliance as an alternative to SEATO, according
to C. C. Desai, the Indian high commissioner
in ceyion, in a conversation with the American ambassador in Colombo.
Desai stated that the scheme will have military
clauses and will attempt to provide most of the benefits of SEATO with-
out the participation of the Western powers. He also said the plan has
not yet been communicated to Ceylon or the other Colombo powers.
Comment: Nehru is unofficially reported to
have rejected outright the British approach on SEATO. His intention
is presumably to seize the initiative from the West and thus forestall
Western efforts to organize the rest of the Colombo powers.
2. Indian appointees to Indochina commission believed pro-Western:
Ambassador Allen in New Delhi regards with
favor the Indian delegates so far appointed to
he Indochina Truce Commission. Chief dele-
gate M. J. Desai and S. Dutt, who will head
the advance party, are believed to be pro-Western.
The two chief delegates are M. J. Desai, act-
ing Indian high commissioner in London, who was appointed on the recom-
mendation of V. K. Krishna Menon, and Dr. J. N. Khosla, in charge of
historical research at the Indian Foreign Ministry. The third chief dele-
gate has not yet been named.
Comment: The appointment of career civil
servants appears to conform with Indian Foreign Ministry assurances
that noncontroversial figures would be named. Menon's influence in
these appointments and the fact that he presided over the preliminary
meeting of truce representatives in New Delhi on 1 August strongly sug-
gest he will be a power behind the scenes.
4 Aug 54
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iraq will seek early revision of treaty with Britain:
Nun i Said, Iraq's most influential political
leader, will seek revision of the Anglo-Iraqi
treaty of 1930, possibly before parliament
reconvenes on 1 December,
Nun, just back from London,
had reached agreement in principle with Britain on the subject. Terms
for Iraq are expected to be based on the Suez settlement, but less favor-
able than those obtained by Egypt.
Comment: The 1930 treaty, which expires on
3 October 1957, gives Britain two air bases in Iraq and access to facili-
ties necessary for the movement of British troops in the event of war.
It also provides for British advice in the development of Iraq's defense
forces.
Iraqi nationalists have long sought the treaty's
abrogation. A revision attempt in 1948 was repudiated by the govern-
ment as a result of serious rioting in Baghdad. Strong opposition can
be expected to any new revision effort. However, Nun i would probably
. handle this explosive issue more adroitly than did the government in 1948.
LATIN AMERICA
4. Comment on situation in Guatemala:
The truce which halted the fighting between
elements of the Guatemalan army and Castillo
Armas' irregular Army of Liberation on
2 August leaves Castillo's dominant position in
the governing junta considerably weakened.
The truce calling for the disbanding of
Castillo's forces, was evidently dictated by
regular army leaders, who are capable of
preventing further outbreaks in the army. They are distrusted by
Castillo, however, who may now attempt to control the army through
officers closely identified with his movement. This would probably
deepen tension and lead to continuing instability.
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TCIP5ECIT
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Castillo late on 2 August threatened to rejoin
500 of his "liberation" troops now encamped about 60 miles from
Guatemala City and lead them against the regular army. It remains
questionable whether he actually intends to take this drastic action, which
would mean resumption of outright civil war.
The present situation appears to be wholly a
struggle between military factions with no ideological overtones; both
sides are strongly anti-Communist.
4 Aug 54
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TOP-SET
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