CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/04/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017432
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: April 1, 1955

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1 April 1955
Copy No. 94
e:04
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 6, 3
NO CHANGE IN CLASS 64.
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 0 0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE.? 7.;IN FIEVIV/EF
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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`limor
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Peiping avoids suggesting agenda for Afro-Asian conference
(page 3).
2. Turkish plans concerning Afro-Asian conference clarified (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Vietnamese premier eager to crush Binh Xuyen rebels (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on Nehru's foreign policy speech (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Army attach6 sees likelihood of major incident between Arab and
Israeli forces (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Comment on effect on West Berlin of East German trucking toll
increase (page 6).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Political crisis seen in Bolivia (page 7).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 8)
* * * *
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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GENERAL
1.. Peiping avoids suggesting agenda for Afro-Asian conference:
Comment: By refusing to contribute to
the provisional agenda for the Afro-Asian conference, Peiping
probably hopes to create the impression that it does not intend to
influence the proceedings of the conference unduly. Provisional
agenda items already suggested by other participants, however,
will allow Chinese Communist representatives ample opportunity
to present Peiping's views.
Propaganda has already indicated that
Peiping's major efforts at the conference will be directed toward
anticolonialism, gaining support for its claim to Formosa, pre-
vention of military alliances among Asian nations, and the en-
couragement of "neutrality."
2. Turkish plans concerning Afro-Asian conference clarified:
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Turkey's
acceptance of the invitation to the conference was accompanied
by reservations concerning being bound by the results of the con-
ference, representation by Communist China, and the non-
participation of Nationalist China.
Comment: Zorlu can be expected to
oppose vigorously any proposals inimical to Western interests.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Vietnamese premier eager to crush Binh Xuyen rebels:
Premier Diem told General Ely on
30 March that the Binh Xuyen organi-
zation, having rebelled against the
government, must be either disarmed,
wiped out, or driven out of Saigon. Ely is unsympathetic, how-
ever, and has assumed a position
of neutrality between the government and the rebels.
Having won control of the municipal
police force from the Binh Xuyen, Diem's next move will proba-
bly be to dismiss the Binh Xuyen chief of the national police
force, fighting might break out again over
this issue, unless the French assist Diem to regain control of
the national police by nonforcible means.
Comment: Vietnamese army forces
demonstrated good morale in the recent fighting and are proba-
bly eager to finish the job against the somewhat demoralized
Binh Xuyen. Diem is apparently in a fighting mood and, follow-
ing the resignation--at least temporary--of certain moderates
from his cabinet, will be less restrained by his colleagues than
In the past.
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SOUTH ASIA
Comment on Nehru's foreign policy speech:
The tone of Prime Minister Nehru's
strongly anti-Western speech in the
Indian parliament on 31 March proba-
bly results from Nehru's frustration
over his failure to achieve concrete results in informal dis-
cussions with the West and with the Sino-Soviet bloc on Formosa,
as well as his irritation over Western efforts to promote anti-
Communist defense arrangements in Asia. It may also reflect
the current ascendancy of left-wing advisers.
Nehru in addition used the speech to
elaborate on the old theme of Asia for Asians. He predicted
that the Afro-Asian conference would be something unique where
Asians would be able to decide things for themselves.
Nehru, to continue his influence in the
international field, must maintain his professed position of neu-
trality. He therefore cannot afford to continue this strongly
anti-Western stand. In the past, his violent utterances have often
been followed by a moderate line.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Army attach�ees likelihood of major incident between Arab and
Israeli forces:
A "heavy" engagement between Arab and
Israeli military forces as a result of
heightened border tension is considered
likely by the American army attach�n
Tel Aviv.
American embassy officials suggest that
the series of incidents on Israeli's three
borders during the past week indicate
a Syria an Egypt may now be taking a tougher attitude
toward Israel and may be co-ordinating their border activities.
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The embassy feels that the continued emphasis on these incidents
in the Israeli press has probably aroused public support for any
counteraction the Israeli defense forces may take.
Comment: Despite the recent UN con-
demnation of Israel for its attack on an Egyptian military post in
the Gaza strip, Tel Aviv would probably condone strong military
action against any of the Arab states in line with its argument
that these states understand only military force. Full-scale hos-
tilities are nevertheless unlikely at this time.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Comment on effect on West Berlin of East German trucking toll
increase:
The East German increase in road tolls
on non-East German traffic effective
1 April could severely damage the West
Berlin economy. American officials in
Berlin state that the East German move
presumably will not affect Allied traffic,
which has been exempt from tolls. The
West Berlin government has appropriated
funds to subsidize payment of the tolls for two weeks, but is un-
likely to continue these subsidies for a longer period.
About 40 percent of West Berlin's supplies
from the West are brought in by truck, but there are sufficient
stockpiles of basic raw materials in West Berlin to enable factories
to continue operations for from six months to a year, even in case
of a complete blockade.
A large proportion of West Berlin's
shipments of finished goods to West Germany has been by truck,
and only part of this traffic could be diverted to the railroads.
If deliveries to the Federal Republic are seriously curtailed, the
West Berlin economy will be considerably damaged.
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A similar toll increase was imposed by
the Communists in September 1951, but was dropped after three
weeks as a result of pressure from the West. East German
traffic through West Berlin was halted and Bonn threatened to
stop interzonal trade deliveries. In the present instance, the
Federal Republic has reportedly already broken off interzonal
trade negotiations and has stated it intends to do everything pos-
sible to keep West Berlin supplied.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Political crisis seen in Bolivia:
A serious split in the governing Nation-
alist Revolutionary Movement (MNR,) in
Bolivia is evident and the government
may "disintegrate" within a matter of
weeks, The basic strug-
gle is between the leftist wing and the more moderate nonlabor ele-
ments.
Widespread dissatisfaction with the gov-
ernment's wage-price decree of 24 March and growing labor unrest
are threatening the MNR with the loss of popular support for the
first time since it came to power in April 1952. Rumors are that
President Paz will resign. The Communists are said to be ex-
ploiting the situation to the fullest.
Comment: This is the first report of a
split in the Bolivian government. Thus far the unifying influence
of President Paz and the feeling of each wing of the MNR that it
needed the other have caused the two factions to accept compromise
solutions on most issues.
Qn 24 March the government decreed wage
hikes of from 40 to 75 percent. Organized labor had asked for an
increase of 100 percent.
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THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 31 March 1955.
1. Chinese Nationalist air units continued attacks, which
began on 29 March, against Chinese Communist shipping in rivers
west of the Mataus. The Nationalists claim three gunboats damaged
in one attack, and two wooden boats sunk and four damaged in a
second attack.
2. Chinese Communist jet light bomber strength is appar-
ently being increased. Between 25 and 28 March at least six multi-
jet aircraft (believed to be 1L-28's from Soviet Navy units), flew to
Tsitsihar in northern Manchuria from Chita in northern Siberia.
The bombers were accompanied by two Soviet Navy transport air-
craft.
There are strong indications that the bombers will be
turned over to the Chinese Communists. Call signs used were those
usually associated with ferry flights by Soviet Pacific Fleet units.
The presence of two transports--presumably to return Soviet crews
to the USSR--strengthens the likelihood of a transfer. Tsitsihar has
been the center of IL-28 re-equipment and training activity in the past.
In 1953 the Chinese Communist 8th and 10th Bomber Divisions went
to Tsitsihar to exchange their TTJ-2 piston bombers for IL-28's.
On the basis of the exclusively naval character of this
movement, it is likely that the Chinese Communist naval air force
will receive the bombers. This would increase the estimated
IL-28 strength of the naval air force to 29 aircraft.
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