CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/04/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017434
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: April 3, 1955

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P&P SECRET
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c) �
3 April 1955
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS El
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. %-'01 0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: % -n11. tO REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
/
TOP SECRET
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Sod *NW
SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST 'ASIA
1. Peiping-Djakarta agreement on dual nationality issue held near
(page 3)�
SOUTH ASIA
2. USSR reported laying groundwork for coup in Afghanistan (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iraq reported unwilling to sign new Arab pact (page 4).
4. Israeli prime minister says Egypt is "playing with fire" (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Soviet jet light bomber strength in East Germany probably in-
creased (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Bonn officials plan retaliation against East German truck tolls
(page 6).
7� West German defense legislation likely to be delayed (page 7).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(pages 8, 9)
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Now'
SOUTHEAST ASIA
I. Peiping-Djakarta agreement on dual nationality issue held near:
Negotiations between Peiping and Djakarta
on the question of Chinese dual nationality
are "about 90 percent settled;
The only important unsettled issue was
the status of those who want to declare allegiance to
neither Indonesia nor Communist China, Peiping wants them re-
garded as Indonesians, while Djakarta would classify them as
Chinese aliens. 50 percent
of the Chinese in Indonesia favor Chiang Kai-shek,
The Indonesians want everything settled
before the Bandung conference SC) that Chou En-lai can sign the
agreement.
Comment: A satisfactory settlement of
this long-standing issue would enable the Chinese delegation at
Bandung to cite Peiping,s "reasonableness" on a problem that con-
cerns all Southeast Asian countries. The Communists could make
an effective propaganda point by noting the current difficulties on
the nationality issue in Thailand and the Philippines, both of which
recognize the Chinese Nationalist regime.
SOUTH ASIA
2. USSR reported laying groundwork for coup in Afghanistan:
The USSR is preparing the groundwork to
support opposition elements in Afghan-
istan in a coup d'etat "when and if the
Soviets choose."
The USSR was said to be particularly. active in northern
Afghanistan and to be increasing its contacts in the Pushtoon tribal
areas adjacent to Pakistan.
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4110V
Comment: There have been no signs
of unusual Soviet activity in Afghanistan recently other than the
publication on 10 March of a pro-Pushtoonistan article in the
bulletin of the Soviet embassy in Kabul. The USSR probably has
a covert organization in Afghanistan capable of undertaking some
political action.
nationalist tendencies and to develop a long-term economic and
cultural penetration. Any Soviet intervention at this time which
could be identified as such would appear to conflict with this policy
and be harmful to it.
The USSR might increase its subversive
efforts if the opposition in Afghanistan to Prime Minister Daud's
policy of economic rapprochement with the USSR succeeds. Soviet
bloc countries have made new offers of credit and trade as recently
as March 1955, but the Afghan government is not known to have
signed any economic agreement with the USSR since 5 October
1954.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Iraq reported unwilling to sign new Arab pact:
The Iraqi minister to Syria stated flatly
to Ambassador Moose on 30 March that
"Iraq is not going to sign any new pact."
The minister referred to an offer by
yria to sign a new defense pact with Egypt on condition that pro-
vision be made for Iraq's participation.
Ambassador Moose comments that if
the minister's statement reflects a firm government policy, then
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Nime 410100'
Iraq appears uninterested in the current Syrian effort to "save
Egyptian face," Syria is trying to bring Iraq into the new pact
proposed by Cairo to replace the Arab League Collective Security
Pact,
Comment; The Iraqi government proba-
bly is opposed to the Cairo sponsored pact, since Iraqi participa-
tion would have the twofold effect of endorsing Egypt's opposition
to the Turkish-Iraqi pact and of buttressing the present anti-Iraqi
government in Syria.
Turkish officials have expressed con-
cern, however, that steps may be required to keep Iraq from
succumbing to Syrian-Egyptian pressure to adhere to the pro-
posed pact in the interest of preserving Arab unity
Israeli prime minister says Egypt is "playing with fire":
Israeli prime minister Sharett told
Ambassador Lawson on 1 April that
Egypt is "playing with fire" and would
be well advised to exercise restraint
61 the Israeli border. Sharett said he wished to emphasize that
the situation is extremely tense and that all the elements for an
explosion are present.
Comment: This reports emphasizes
the likelihood, noted by the American army attach�n Tel Aviv
on 30 March, that a "heavy" engagement between Israeli and
Arab military forces will result from heightened border tension.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Soviet jet light bomber strength in East Germany probably in-
creased:
jet light
bombers, arrived in the Soviet zone
of Germany from the USO
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INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
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The flights appear to have originated from Soviet jet
light bomber bases in Western USSR. Werneuchen and Oranien-
burg, Soviet airfields in the Berlin area, were the landing points
for the incoming aircrafi
Comment: Preparations for operations
at the field at Oranienburg, a former 1L-28 base have been noted
since December 1954. Soviet air force troops, mobile work shops,
and refueling units have arrived at this field since 20 March.
The arrival of IL-28's at Oranienburg
and Werneuchen suggests an augmentation of Soviet jet light bomber
strength in East Germany. An additional three regiments would
again bring the IL-28 strength to a total of seven regiments, the
number in East Germany prior to the withdrawal of all jet light
bombers in June and July 1953. Three 1L-28 bomber regiments
were transferred to East Germany in May 1954 and an IL-28 re-
connaissance regiment arrived in July 1954.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Bonn officials plan retaliation against East German truck tolls:
West German economic officials want to
threaten termination of Western deliv-
eries of key products, such as Ruhr coke
and steel, to East Germany in order to
force the East German government to cancel the recent increases
in levies on truck shipments to West Berlin.
They told American representatives in
Bonn that this threat would take the form of a Bundestag pro-
posal for an exorbitant tax on exports to East Germany. The
tax would be set so high that Western exporters could not pay
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Soul `tier#
It unless the East Germans absorbed the costs. The proceeds of
the tax would be placed in a special fund to pay the East German
truck taxes.
Comment: Such a threat might cause
the East German government to reconsider its position on the
truck taxes. Except in the sphere of interzonal trade, West
Germany probably has no other effective means for retaliation.
At present the flow of traffic to West
Berlin is normal since the West Berlin government is paying
the tax.
7. West German defense legislation likely to be delayed:
Officials of the West German govern-
ment and key Bundestag deputies now
feel that defense legislation to imple-
ment the Paris accords will not be
enac e un au u n, according to American representatives
in Bonn. West German defense planners had said previously
that such legislation would be passed before the Bundestag's
summer recess.
Responsible for the expected delay
are procedural difficulties in the Bundestag and the belief of
many deputies that such legislation should be delayed until pub-
lic opinion is more favorable.
American officials now predict that
the German arms build-up will not start before early 1956.
Comment: The belief is strong in West
Germany that rearmament should not be undertaken until the West
has made a major effort to test Moscow's intentions on German
unity.
The pessimism of Bonn government offi-
cials on the defense legislation issue has probably been inspired
partly by the Finance Ministry, which for fiscal reasons is not
anxious to support a rapid arms build-up.
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Niue 'maro
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 2 April 1955.
1. Military activity in the area has been negligible. Bad
weather hampered observation.
2. The US Army Attach�eports from personal observa-
tion that Chinese Nationalist defenses in the Matsu Area Defense
Command are being rapidly improved; the garrison should be
able to give a good account of itself jilt can continue the present
rate of improvement for thirty days more. Units are at five per
cent over-strength and the logistical situation is considered ade-
quate. Lack of adequate antiaircraft defenses and insufficient
artillery, mortars, and automatic weapons are serious weak-
nesses in the Matsu defenses at present. Even if these deficien-
cies are corrected, however, the Chinese Communists will retain
the capability to take these islands against Nationalist forces
alone.
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PIO A.e. OM. a.. mos
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THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 3 April 1955.
1. Three Chinese Nationalist minor naval vessels attacked
a Chinese Communist patrol boat and an LCT in the Matsu area on
3 April. The Nationalist vessels were driven off by Communist
coastal artillery.
This is the first report of Chinese Nationalist naval
action to restrict recent Communist naval and logistic operations,
een openly and freely conducted in the Matsu area.
2 A etailed analysis of photography previously reported
reveals that the former airfield site at Nanchang
New has been completely rehabilitated into a modern, well-
equipped air depot. The large overhaul and assembly facilities
appear to be capable of handling larger aircraft than the present
utilization for construction or assembly of conventional training
aircraft.
The same photography confirms that the air base at
Hsiangtang, 17 miles to the south, where MIG-15's are based, is
capable of providing support for either jet fighter or light bomber
operations. From Hsiangtang, jet fighters can operate as far as
the northwest corner of Formosa on escort and aerial combat mis-
sions, and jet light bombers based at Hsiangtang would be effective
against all of Formosa.
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