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September 20, 2019
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September 26, 2019
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April 5, 1955
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15722804].pdf376.93 KB
Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 r CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO G G NO CHANGE IN CLASS a L] DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CEANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REViEW DATE: S-01 0 AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE: trl-v+ IQ REVIEWER: e�##///1 11.A// dA Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 TOP SECRET 5 April 1955 Copy No. 94 Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY co3voi743 .5// 13.4 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 Pr. Masa \e.o.m. .ar Nme Noe SUMMARY FAR EAST 10 Comment on purge of two Chinese Communist leaders (page 3). SOUTHEAST ASIA 2. Comment on left-wing gains in Singapore elections (page 3). SOUTH ASIA 3. Comment on Afghan-Pakistani situation (page 4). NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Iranian prime minister-designate expects short term in office (page 5). 5. France to continue selling arms to Israel (page 6). EASTERN EUROPE 6. Soviet ambassador discusses "normalization" with Tito (page 6). WESTERN EUROPE 7. Raab reported to fear partition of Austria if treaty negotiations fail (page 7). LATE ITEM 8. Paris wants Diem's powers limited immediately (page 8). THE FORMOSA STRAITS (page 9) 5 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 �a-I N./ A %le FAR EAST 1. Comment on purge of two Chinese Communist leaders: Peiping's communiqu�f 4 April on the Chinese Communist Party conference of 21-31 March confirms the fall of two Chinese Communist Party leaders who had once been high in Mao Tse-tung's favor but have been out of the news for more than a year. The expulsion from the party of polit- buro member ICao ICang and organization chief Jao Shu-shih is the first serious disciplinary action known to have been taken by Mao since 1938. Their fall results from a methodical "reorgani- zation" of the party begun in 1951 and a drive, started in early 1954, to eliminate dissension among the party leaders. Both Kao and Jao, who had been regional leaders in Manchuria and East China, respectively, before tak- ing important posts at the national level, were apparently guilty of trying to build "independent kingdoms." It is not believed that either fell as a result of disputes over military policy. . Comment on left-win SOUTHEAST ASIA ains in Singapore elections: The victory of left-wing elements in the Singapore elections on 2 April presages increased difficulties for the government in carrying out anti-Communist measures. The new Singapore legislative assembly, in which elected members for the first time outnumber appointed members, will probab y be more sympathetic toward student and labor groups, over which the Communists are exercising increasing influence. The Labor Front won 10 of the 25 elected seats, and is expected to form a minority government. It has 5 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved fj.r�Reie-ase: 2019/09/17_03017435 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 kxj L./ ihri 14 LI ( *Ole demanded an investigation of emergency security laws, with a view toward their repeal or revision. The Front will be sup- ported in this by two other groups--the apparently Communist- supported People's Action Party and a Malay-Chinese alliance, which together won six seats. Final decisions on defense, finance and internal security, however, will remain in the hands of the governor. Elections next July in the Federation of Malaya�which is administered separately from Singapore-- are expected to result in government difficulties throughout Malaya,since leading federation parties are also talking of re- vising emergency laws and extending amnesty to the Commu- nist terrorists. SOUTH ASIA 3. Comment on Afghan-Pakistani situation: The anti-Pakistani demonstrations in several Afghan towns between 30 March and 1 April will probably force the royal family to decide within the next few days whether to discipline Prime Minister Daud, who is also a member of the family, or to surrender to him on the Pushtoonistan question. Pakistan's insistence that the formal apology and promise of compensation for the looting of the Pakistani embassy in Kabul on 30 March are inadequate also lends some urgency to the decision on Daud. Though Kabul probably cannot accede to all of Karachi's demands, the government has forbidden further demonstrations and has announced that demonstrators will be fired on. Daud's influential uncles, Shah Wall. an and Shah Mahmud Khan,have condemned his actions and are said to have predicted that he will be dismissed. Daud's brother, 5 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2-019/09/17 C0301735 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 Jr DfLiU:I Noe Nuor Foreign Minister Naim, seems to have been genuinely surprised and angered by the week-end rioting. The king, who was absent on a hunting trip on 30 March resumabl also QppsesDaudk actions. The government is probably aware that if Daud continues as prime minister, additional unrest within Afghan- istan, as well as armed clashes with Pakistan, may be expected. NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Iranian prime minister- designate expects short term in office: Minister of Court Ala, designated by the Shah to become Iranian prime min- ister upon Zahedi's resignation, has stated that he would do little more than install a cab ne e ore eaving for Europe for medical attention, according to the American embassy in Tehran. Minister of Finance Amini, who is Ala's choice for prime minister, would be acting prime minister dur- ing Ala's absence. Comment: Ala's tenure as prime min- ister is likely to be short and to be marked by the increased ac- tivity of all political factions, as well as greater participation of the Shah in government affairs. Amini, who handled the recent oil nego- tiations with conspicuous success, would be in line for the pre- miership if he performed satisfactorily during Ala's absence. He would, however, be handicapped by the opposition of many influential politicians. 5 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 4 16.0 44,6,1 1,1-� 5. France to continue selling arms to Israel: France will continue to sell arms to Israel in line with its policy of main- taining a "balance of strength" between Israel and the Arab states. The Foreign Ministry said its sources show that the Arabs are now militarily superior to Israel. Fur- thermore, this superiority will become "more pronounced" in 1955, since Britain plans to send more arms to the Arab states and the United States has undertaken a program that "will double" Iraq's military potential. Comment: There is a growing split between France on the one hand and Britain and the United States on the other over arms shipments to the Middle East. France wants tripartite policy aimed at maintaining a numerical equality in armaments between Israel and the Arab states. The United States and Britain, however, have urged that other factors must be taken into consideration. There is some reason to believe that France is making shipments to Israel without informing the tri- partite Near East Arms Co-ordinating Committee. This com- mittee was set up to make certain that the sale of arms to the area would not result in an arms race or a military imbalance which might lead to hostilities. EASTERN EUROPE 6. Soviet ambassador discusses "normalization" with Tito: Soviet ambassador Valkov's interview with Tito on 28 March was devoted en- tirely to the question of "continued normalization" of Yugoslav-Soviet rela- ons, according to a statement by Yugoslav deputy foreign secre- tary Micunovic to the British ambassador in Belgrade. Valkov 5 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 Approved for Release:_2019;09/17 C03017435 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 I N." II ha 1...0...1%.1-4 Name reportedly urged acceptance of a Soviet invitation for a parlia- mentary delegation to visit Moscow, �and Micunovic believes that his government will adopt a "positive attitude." American ambassador Riddleberger re- ports that Yugoslav foreign secretary Popovic is telling foreign diplomats that the conversation was about the Pravda article which answered in mild terms Tito's 7 March speech attacking Soviet handling of normalization. Riddleberger observes that there is considerable speculation in Belgrade that Valkov brought "soft answers to Tito's complaints." Comment: Valkov's sudden trip to Moscow following Tito's criticisms of Soviet "normalization" tac- tics and his return to Belgrade just before the interview with Tito suggest that Yugoslav complaints were an important topic. The recent editorial exchange between Moscow and Belgrade indicated that the USSR desired to improve further Yugoslav-USSR relations. Belgrade's acceptance of the Soviet invi- tation for an exchange of parliamentary delegations would be con- sistent with its professed desire of pursuing a policy of "active coexistence." WESTERN EUROPE 7. Raab reported to fear partition of Austria if treaty negotiations fail: Austrian chancellor. Raab, who is sched- uled to leave for Moscow on 11 April, has ambitions to be "the man who got the Russians out of Austria," according to assa or Thompson in Vienna. Thompson understands that Raab believes If he does not achieve a treaty "on this round," Austria will proba- bly be partitioned. Raab thinks that even if he has to pay too high a price for a treaty, he can later renege on his agreements. Thompson notes that Raab apparently be- lieves Austrian ambassador Gruber in Washington is inaccurate 5 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 & ����� if as/ %OS Sid a when he presents the United States as opposed to four-power guar- antees of Austrian neutralization, Comment: Top-level Austrian officials assert that the Austrian delegation will make no commitment in Moscow, but will explore the nature of neutralization and anti- Anschluss guarantees desired by the USSR. The delegation, nevertheless, could make clear Austria's tendency to accept such guarantees. LATE ITEM 8. Paris wants Diem's powers limited immediately: In a note delivered to American charg� Achilles in Paris on 2 April, the French government states that "the Diem govern- ment must without delay become more e y based or give place to another." The note enumerates Diem's failures since he has been in power, and says he has alienated the "great majority of political, military and spiritual forces" in Viet- nam. The French secretary of state for the Associated States had told Achilles on 1 April that the French gov- ernment was convinced the "Diem experiment" had failed and that the idea of finding a solution now through strengthening the Diem government was completely unrealistic. Comment: In the note the French consider- ably exaggerated Diem's weaknesses, possibly to suit their appar- ent decision to make every effort to bring about his removal. Gen- eral Ely's recommendation that Bao Dai invite Diem and the sect leaders to Paris may be designed to further such an aim. The French have long distrusted Diem, and there is evidence that some French officials have been plotting with anti-Diem elements. Paris now fears as well that Diem's actions will involve France in civil strife in Indochina, a situation which any French government will avoid at all costs for domestic political reasons. 5 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN page 8 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C030117435 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017435 4,-11 aJL. L 1J.. I "New' THE FORMOSA STRAITS Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group for the Formosa Straits Problem This report is based on information received in Washington up to 1600 hours 4 April 1955. 1. The Chinese Nationalists have reported sighting 39 Chi- nese Communist vessels at sea in the Peiling Peninsula - Min River estuary area on 3 April. The sighting report included six to 11 LST's, sufficient for the initial lift of an assault force of 15,000 to 30,00 troops against islands of the Matsu group. Although this report is not completely accepted, it is viewed with concern. If true, it would mean that the Chinese Com- munist navy had, on station opposite the Matsu Islands for the first ' ous lift sufficient t_tiine_amohil o launch a successfully an attack. 5 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9 Approved for Release: 20119/09/17 C03017435 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 CO3017435 PAICHUAN ISLANDS (WHITE DOGS) HSICHUAN (Z2 TUNGCHUAN 50325