CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/03/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017438
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: March 23, 1955

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23 March 1955
Copy No,
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
5.5
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS ar
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2-0i9
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: g=v+gQ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.3(h)(2)
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
I. South Korean populace reported receptive to gestures from north
(page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Ambassador Byroade appraises Egyptian regime (page 3
WESTERN EUROPE
3. Adenauer wants occupation ended in mid-April (page 4).
4. Scelba government not implementing vigorous anti-Communist pro-
gram (page 5).
LAT:E ITEM
5. Molotov implies Austrian treaty possible after ratification of
Paris accords (page 6).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 8)
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FAR EAST
1. South Korean populace reported receptive to gestures from north:
orth Korean offers to reopen mail chan-
els and lift travel restrictions between
orth and South Korea have been favor-
bly received by the South Korean popu-
lace, accor ng o e ar East Command. Pyongyang propaganda
and peace appeals mailed to South Korean politicians and army
personnel, however, have not been effective, since most of them
have been intercepted by South Korean law enforcement agenciesn
The Far East Command comments that
complacency is noticeable among the South Korean population and
that real estate values in the areas close to the 38th parallel are
up. The people appear unconcerned over the possibility of a. new
North Korean military invasion and seem primarily interested in
small-scale reconstruction programs.
Comment: It has long been suspected
that the South Korean people do not share the government's ada-
mant opposition to all co-operation with the north.
Pyongyang has repeatedly offered to
trade industrial products--which it could not now actually deliver--
for South Korean agricultural produce, a proposal much more in
keeping with prevailing South Korean sentiments than President
Rhee's periodic threats to resume the fighting. Such offers may
find increasing receptivity in the south if North Korea's economic
recovery enables Pyongyang to make good on its trade offers.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
2. Ambassador Byroade appraises Egyptian regime:
Ambassador Byroade has concluded,
following a long conversation with the
Egyptian prime minister, that Nasr is
"now very much in a box and he knows
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4ime"
it but cannot see his way out in the near future." On the question
of defense, Nasr reiterated "almost in sadness" that Egypt is now
too committed to the proposed Egyptian-Syrian-Saudi Arabian pact
to change.
The American embassy sees a decline in
the prestige of the Revolutionary Command Council as a result of
the general impression in Egypt that its new pact has fallen short
of the announced objectives and that the regime is unsure of what
it should do next. The stability of the regime, however, has not
yet been greatly affected.
Nasr's personal position with other mem-
bers of the Revolutionary Command Council and the "Free Offi-
cers," primary army support of the regime, has apparently been
enhanced by his public stand against joining Western plans for
Middle East defense, since it reflects the majority opinion of
these groups
The embassy believes that Nasr's posi-
tion could eventually be undermined, however, as a result of the
frustrations among the "Free Officers" and the army generally
arising from Egypt's inability to strike back at Israel following
the 28 February raid on Gaza. The embassy considers that this
is the issue which opposition elements can use with greatest effect
against Nasr.
Comment: Nasr, personally anxious to
co-operate with the West, is likeTT to be forced to adopt an in-
creasingly anti-Western position on international issues in order
to retain the support of his nationalist supporters in the army.
WESTERN EUROPE
3. Adenauer wants occupation ended in mid-April:
Chancellor Adenauer told Ambassador
Conant on 21 March that he strongly de-
sires the Allies to end the occupation
without waiting for final ratification
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of West Germany's entrance into NATO. He fears that the Nether-
lands will not ratify until May.
Adenauer would like the ceremony end-
ing the occupation to take place in Bonn on 15 April. He is confi-
dent that last-minute constitutional challenges to the Paris accords
in West Germany will cause no difficulty. He believes President
Heuss will sign the accords shortly and deposit them as soon as
French and American ratification is complete.
Comment: Among other reasons, Ade-
nauer wants the occupation to end by mid-April in order to show
some foreign policy accomplishment prior to the state elections
In Lower Saxony on 24 April.
Termination of the occupation will occur
whenever the three occupying powers and the Bonn government
deposit instruments acknowledging ratification of the Paris accords.
At present French ratification appears virtually assured.
In, Bonn, the constitutional court is ex-
pected to declare on 28 March that the Socialist petition against
the Saar treaty is invalid.
4. Scelba government not implementing vigorous anti-Communist pro-
gram:
The American embassy in Rome, in com-
menting on the progress of the anti-
Communist program announced by the
Scelba government last December, states
that the program is not a vigorous one by American standards.
Since the Communists and the allied
Nenni socialist Party enjoy support from one third of the electo-
rate, the government is not attempting a crackdown on the Com-
munist Party as a whole. Instead it is confining itself to attacks
on legal grounds against specific individuals, with little publicity
and with no attention drawn to any broad anti-Communist program
as such.
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The embassy points out that the test of
the program's effectiveness will be the Sicilian regional elections
this coming June and the local, and possibly national, elections
in the spring of 1956.
Comment: The outcome of the 1956
elections will probably deiiiiirmore on the progress of the gov-
ernment's general reform program than on the Communist issue
as such. To date the social reforms have not been of such a na-
ture as to cut the ground from under the Communists at the national
elections.
LATE ITEM
5. Molotov implies Austrian treaty possible after ratification of Paris
accords:
Soviet foreign minister Molotov told
Austrian ambassador Bischoff on 14 March
that more guarantees against an Anschluss
than those already included in the draft
Austrian peace treaty would be required only if the Paris accords
are ratified and West Germany is rearmed. Molotov remained
vague on the nature of such additional guarantees and said that both
the USSR and Austria must think over the question of whether it
would be better to have guarantees by the big powers or by Austria's
neighbors. Molotov also said there seemed to be no disagreement
with an Austrian proposal for separate discussion of the treaty by
the four powers and Austria.
An Austrian ForPirrn mipistry official,
said it was clear
the Soviet move was no mere propaganda maneuver to impede the
Paris accords and that Austria had to keep the talks going. He em-
phatically rejected the idea that Austria would accept guarantees by
its neighbors.
Comment: Molotov's persistent vague-
ness about the type of "guarantees" the USSR would accept indi-
cates that the Soviet Union is not yet ready to conclude an Austrian
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treaty. Communist propaganda continues to insist that any
Austrian settlement must take place before final action on the
Paris accords, but Molotov is clearly encouraging Austrian
hopes for a treaty after ratification. Moscow may feel that by
adopting a flexible attitude, it can use the Austrian issue to hinder
implementation of West German rearmament. It may even fear
there is a danger of closer Austrian co-operation with the West
after ratification which must be averted by keeping open the door
to treaty negotiations.
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*No,
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 22 March 1955.
1. No significant Chinese Communist military activity was
observed in the area on 21 March. Foggy weather with drizzles,
probably prevented planned photo reconnaissance of Swatow, Chang-
ting and Nantai airfields.
2.
3. Soviet advisors may now be aiding the Chinese Commu-
nist Air Force in the Canton area.
While
the presence of Soviet air advisors in Communist China certainly
is not unusual, these may indicate Chinese Communist
training in a new type aircraft, possibly the MIG-17 or an advanced
version of the MIG-15. The three CCAF fighter regiments in the
Canton area are equipped with MIG-15's.
A fighter build-up at Canton would not increase the
threat to the offshore islands or Formosa as they are at or beyond
the jet fighter extreme range. With improvements of fields in the
Fukien area, however, Canton-based jet fighters could stage
through the area for attacks on Nationalist-held areas
4. Embassy Helsinki reports that the owner of the Finnish
tanker Aruba, which is now near the Nicobar Islands, has given as-
surances that she will return her cargo of jet fuel to Constanza,
Rumania.
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'`groe *440�
HANKOW
NANCHANG
SWATO
NANKING
J)
under
onstruction,
SHANPAI
CHIAHSING
oc)::
WENCHOW
CHIENOU
,
MATSUS
WUCHIU
-P QUEMOY
di I
PESVDORES Is
KAOHSIUNG
SOUTH CHINA COAST (incl. FORMOSA)
0 Available Airfield (jet)
Available Airfield (conventional)
Airfield Site
I Nationalist-held Islands
Rail (selected)
tetuis
100
Kilometers
Road (selected)
CHOUSHAN IS.
"TACHENS
KEELUNG
FORMOSA
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