CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/11/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017643
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: November 3, 1954

Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017643.
TO-P-SEGRET
3 November 1954 3.3(h)(2) 004
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Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 7
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I DECLASSIFIED
CL ASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: La
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: r///an. REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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Nome
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1.
2. Yoshida disappointed by his reception in Britain (page 4).
FAR EAST
3. Chinese Communists may attack Ichiang Island north of
Tachens (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Indian representative abetting Communist consolidation in north-
ern Laos (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
50 Israel's new diversion of Jordan River waters called "hot potato"
for Western powers (page 6)0
6. Ethiopia reported interested in financing Sudanese independence
movement (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Poland seen planning "show" trial with Hermann Field as witness
for prosecution (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Mendes- France reported planning Moscow trip after Washington
visit (page 8).
9. Oslo may allow frequent visits by Allied air units to Norwegian
bases (page 9).
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GENERAL
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2. Yoshida disappointed by his reception in Britain:
Prime Minister Yoshida is distressed
by the general public indifference and
the hostility of textile interests and of
leftist members of Parliament he has
encountered during his visit to Britain,
Yoshida has concluded the
British have little interest in Japan's future and are =prepared
to make concessions designed to maintain a friendly administra-
tion in power in Tokyo and to keep Japan aligned with the West.
Yoshida was reported to be generally
"satisfied" with the attention shown him by the queen, Prime
Minister Churchill and other high British officials.
Comment: Yoshida has followed a
policy of close co-operation with the West at the cost of consid-
erable domestic political support, and he probably did not expect
the generally apathetic welcome he has received in Europe.
The approach by Asakai was undoubtedly
designed to encourage more tangible evidence of American sup-
port for Yoshida, especially since the results of his trip may be
decisive on his ability to remain in power.
FAR EAST
3. Chinese Communists may attack Ichiang Island north of Tachens:
The American army attach�n Taipei
believes the "most likely" Chinese
Communist action in the Tachens area
would be a landing on Nationalist-held
Ichiang Island, about eight miles north-
west of Upper Tachen. Ichiang's capture would permit the Commu-
nists to use long-range artillery against the Nationalist garrison
on Upper Tachen.
In view of the absence of reports of
Communist troop or naval concentrations near the Tachens, it
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is highly improbable that the Communists will attempt a landing
on the main Tachen Islands in the near future, according to the
attach�
Comment: The Communists currently
seem to be softening Ichiang's defenses prior to a landing attempt.
The island, which is defended by about 850 Nationalist guerrillas,
has been under frequent shellfire from Communist-held Toumen
Island to the north in recent weeks. Three thousand rounds of
artillery are reported to have struck Ichiang in an eight-hour
period on 1 November, and on the following day, it was bombed
by Communist planes.
The Nationalist defense minister has
urged that American Seventh Fleet carriers put in an appearance
in the Tachens area. He believes that such evidence of American
interest would be the best means of deterring the Communists
from expanding the conflict.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Indian representative abetting Communist consolidation in north-
ern Laos:
The Indian chairman of the international
commission in Laos is still unwilling to
concede the royal government's right to
administer the two northern provinces
designated as assembly areas for Pathet Lao forces. According
to the American charg�n Vientiane, the Indian has admitted that
the Pathet Lao demand for exclusive jurisdiction would be weak-
ened if commission teams could confirm the claim of the French
and Laotians that their forces actually occupy some parts of the
provinces. In any case, he has stated, he wants to avoid a show-
down on the question in order to keep the commission working
"as a team."
India's representative, moreover, is con-
vinced the Pathet Lao forces are not really Communists but in-
stead good nationalists and Buddhists. He apparently is hoping
that "friendly conversations" between the Laotian government and
Pathet Lao representatives will "improve the atmosphere."
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Comment: The Laotian government has
not yet established administrative machinery in the two northern
provinces, although in its declaration at Geneva it clearly asserted
its right to do so.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Israel's new diversion of Jordan River waters called "hot potato"
for Western powers:
Jordan's complaint to the Western powers
on 1 November that the new Israeli move
to divert water from the Jordan River is
a threat to the peace is a "hot potato" with
complicated legal aspects, in the view of the American, British
and French chiefs of mission in Amman.
Ambassador Mallory, in reporting this,
observes that if the Jordanian complaint is substantially accurate,
there may be an increase in Israeli-Jordanian incidents.
Comment: Israel's request in September
for the use of American counterpart funds for the project referred
to--different from the controversial diversionary canal being built
by Israel in the Israeli-Syrian demilitarized zone--was turned
down by Washington as prejudicial to the negotiations on the
American-sponsored Johnston plan for the unified development of
the Jordan River.
6. Ethiopia reported interested in financing Sudanese independence
movement:
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Ethiopia is so anxious to assure the
Sudan's independence that it is willing
to make "substantial funds" available
to the Sudanese independence movement,
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according to the Ethiopian liaison officer in Khartoum. He added,
however, that Ethiopia had found no one reliable to deal with in
the movement�
Emperor Haile Selassie is reported con-
vinced that union of the Sudan with Egypt would stir up trouble
among the Moslems in Ethiopia and Eritrea. He is said to be-
lieve that such a combined state would constitute a threat to Ethiopia.
Comment: Under the terms of the Anglo-
Egyptian agreement of 1952; the Sudanese are to decide between
union with Egypt and independence by 1957.
Egypt has clearly indicated its intention
to achieve union with the Sudan. Major Salah Salim, Egyptian
minister for Sudanese affairs and national guidance, told Ameri-
can liaison officer Sweeney in Khartoum with unusual frankness
on 4 October that the Nasr regime is determined to take over the
Sudan. He emphasized that Egypt "had spent millions of pounds
to achieve its objectives."
Ethiopia is unlikely to match Egypt's
financial efforts to win the Sudan, but any Ethiopian intervention
of the sort envisaged would cause friction between Egypt and
Ethiopia. The Ethiopian challenge suggests, moreover, that
orderly political development in the Sudan is likely to be jeopard-
ized by these maneuvers and intrigues.
EASTERN EUROPE
7. Poland seen planning "show" trial with Hermann Field as witness
for prosecution:
The American embassy in Warsaw be-
lieves that the Polish regime is prepar-
ing a propaganda trial of security police
officials in which Hermann Field will
appear as a witness for the prosecution. The Poles would attempt
to fix blame for Field's mistreatment on Jozef Swiatlo and other
"American agents infiltrated into the Polish security organs."
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Field has now informed American embassy
officials that he has delayed his departure until 10 November and
that the Poles have set up a special commission to investigate and
prosecute persons who mistreated him during his imprisonment.
Comment: A trial featuring the Field
case would enable the regime to aFpict Swiatlo and other security
police officials as American agents and thus use them as scape-
goats for past unpopular policies. It could also be used to exon-
erate previously convicted national deviationists, a trend which
has already been noted in Hungary.
Satellite political trials since the inaugu-
ration of the new course, however, have been conducted without
publicity and Polish leaders might hesitate to stage a major "show"
trial which might be interpreted as a reversion to harsh Stalinist
practice.
WESTERN EUROPE
8. Mendes-France reported planning Moscow trip after Washington
visit:
French premier Mendes-France plans to
reveal to American officials his inten-
tion to visit Moscow immediately after
leaving Washington, in order to sound
out the USSR on an East-West agreement,
Comment: Mendes- France is scheduled
to arrive in Washington in the th-ria week of November. In view
of his public rejection of talks with the USSR before ratification
of the London accords on West German rearmament, it is doubt-
ful that he would actually make a visit to Moscow over strong
American objections.
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9, Oslo may allow frequent visits by Allied air units to Norwegian
bases:
Comment: Such assurances would
represent a substantial modificaTiT5ii of past Norwegian policy and
open the way for Allied pilots to gain experience in operating from
Norwegian bases. The Oslo government has thus far consistently
refused permanent stationing or rotation of foreign units in Norway
during peacetime. The government's anxiety about the lack of air
defenses for NATO's northern flank is much stronger than the
public's, and has been reflected in efforts to obtain American aid
for a build-up of the Norwegian air force.
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