CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/11/06

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017646
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: November 6, 1954

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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO. /0
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AUTH: HR 70-2
DA 1: 1/. .09 Q. REviEwER,
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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Nome N414,
SUMMARY
GENERAL
1,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on Communists' aclmowledgment of royal govern-
ment's supremacy in Laos (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Israeli defense forces may take action on Egyptian bor-
der (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
Polish-Czech dispute breaks out at meeting in East Germany
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Prospective resignations may weaken OEEC (page 6).
7. Comment on Bonn opposition to Saar agreement (page 7).
8 French Foreign Ministry spokesman says East-West talks
"inevitable" in early 1955 (page 8).
* * * *
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INV
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1.
GENERAL
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Comment on Communists' acknowledgment of royal government's
supremacy in Laos:
The declaration by the Viet Minh-backed
Pathet Lao recognizing the supremacy
of the royal Laotian government through-
out the kingdom is apparently aimed at winning the support of the
Indian truce delegates and of those high Laotian officials who are
convinced the Pathet Lao can be safely integrated into the kingdom
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of Laos. The Indian truce chief had earlier expressed the opin-
ion that the Pathet Lao are good nationalists and Buddhists. The
royal prince who was formerly premier and is now defense min-
ister has been the most important advocate of the view that his
half-brother, the Pathet Lao chief, could be weaned away from
the Viet Minh,
The declaration, reported in a Vietnam-
ese press dispatch on 5 November, was addressed to the Inter-
national Control Commission. It included the statement that
Pathet Lao administration in the provinces of Sam Neua and Phong
Saly had been placed "under the supreme authority of the royal
government." The Viet Minh may believe that with the help of the
Control Commission the Pathet Lao can worm its way into the gov-
ernment.
Recognition of the principle of royal
sovereignty over the northern provinces will not seriously detract
from actual Pathet Lao authority there, particularly if the Indians
continue their blind confidence in the Communists' good intentions,
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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4. Israeli defense forces may take action on Egyptian border:
Israeli premier Sharett sent word to the
American embassy in Tel Aviv on 2
November that increasing Egyptian in-
filtration activities on the border between
Israel and Egypt are making continuation of his "moderate" policy
"very difficult."
Sharett's emissary said that Israel is
convinced these activities are inspired and directed by the Egyp-
tian government and requests the Department of State through the
American embassy in Cairo to take measures, more forcefully
than in the past, to secure Egypt's renunciation of these activities.
The embassy in Tel Aviv believes
Sharett's approach indicates that Israel's defense forces are press-
ing him for greater freedom of action in dealing with the border
problem.
Comment: The Egyptian government
apparently has not been involved in recent border incidents. Ex-
tremist Moslem Brotherhood groups and other extralegal elements
in the area may, however, be responsible for some of them. The
Egyptian government has shown a readiness to co-operate in past
months with the UN Mixed Armistice Commission and Israel to
nlieviate tension.
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Regardless of responsibility, the continuation of
incidents on the Israeli-Egyptian frontier is likely to lead to
organized retaliatory action on the part of Israel.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Polish-Czech dispute breaks out at meeting in East Germany:
The Polish and Czech delegates to the
� Seventh Christian Democratic Union
Congress inWeimar in September
quarreled heatedly over the claims of
their respective countries to the Tesin area. East German
premier Grotewohl's press office, anticipating such a clash be-
cause of tensions between the two countries, had issued instruc-
tions that the delegations be kept apart.
Comment:
This incident suggests that
the negotiations may have actually increased tensions between
the two countries.
The dispute has remained unresolved
even though the 1947 mutual assistance pact between Czecho-
slovakia and Poland called for a settlement of all territorial ques-
tions within two years. Czech authorities have had difficulty con-
trolling the large Polish population in this area, and Czech
newspapers have repeatedly denoun tionalistic
manifestations in this connection,
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Prospective resignations may weaken OEEC:
6 Nov 54
Executive Secretary Marjolin of the
Organization for European Economic
Co-operation plans to resign and will
probably receive an important govern-
ment position in Paris,
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Comment: Marjolin has been a key
figure since 1948 in the American-sponsored effort to strengthen
the economy of Western Europe through the 18-nation OEEC. Un-
less he were replaced by a man of comparable stature, his resig-
nation along with that of his deputy could have a far-reaching
psychological impact. This would be particularly great now when
nationalistic tendencies on the Continent are lessening the cohe-
siveness of the Western alliance.
7. Comment on Bonn opposition to Saar agreement:
Deep dissatisfaction with the Saar .agree-
ment evidenced in a Bonn cabinet meet-
ing on 5 November has caused Chancellor
Adenauer to agree to seek further nego-
tiations with France on this subject,
according to press reports. It is unlikely
that .Adenauer will repudiate the agreement
he reached with Premier Mendes-France
on 23 October, but he may ask for several changes to make the
agreement more palatable to German opinion--particularly in view
of the provincial elections scheduled for 28 November.
Earlier reports from Bonn indicated that
there are discrepancies between the French and German texts of
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Noe Nair
the 23 October accord, and that Adenauer's coalition partners
have pressed him for an interpretation of several other clauses.
The coalition Free Democratic and
Refugee Parties, which have taken the lead in opposing the Saar
agreement, are determined to see that it is clearly provisional,
pending a German peace treaty. They are dubious about the
present provisions in this regard, and they may suspect--with
good reason--that Mendes-France intends to ask the United States
and Britain to guarantee the settlement in peace treaty negotiations.
Ambassador Conant cautioned on 4 November that such a French
request would "greatly increase political difficulties in the Fed-
eral Republic."
Unless the present Saar accord can be
made clearly provisional, the crisis in Bonn will deepen.
8� French Foreign Ministry spokesman says East-West talks
"inevitable" in early 1955:
The chief political spokesman for the
French Foreign Ministry, Roland de
Margerie, believes that a Big Four
meeting early next year is "inevitable."
He told American officials in Paris on 4 November, however,
that Premier Mendes- France is strongly opposed to such a meet-
ing unless there is reason to believe progress could be made.
Comment: Mendes- France told the
National Assembly's Foreign Affairs Committee on 3 November
that Moscow would have to be sounded out before talks were
undertaken with the USSR. Although the premier is reported
to have broken with some advisers who urged a direct approach
to Moscow before the Paris conference, he is obviously anxious
to take the initiative in East-West negotiations, and there have
been indications he may send a prominent personal representa-
tive to Moscow to explore the possibilities.
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