CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/11/13

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017650
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: November 13, 1954

r Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017650
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SC No. 15285
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. Li"
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 41:
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: . TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: _ 2_111 C2
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: _Vila() REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017650
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
L Bohlen reports on Khrushchev's remarks to French ambassador
at reception (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Japanese press calls Yoshida's Washington talks a failure (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh suggests representation for French Communist Party
in North Vietnam (page 4).
4. General Ely concerned over American support of Vietnamese
premier (page 5).
5. Philippine president expresses willingness to aid Vietnam (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Saudi official warns against Iraqi alignment with Turkey, Pakistan
and Iran (page 6).
7. "Popular front" will oppose Greek Rally (page 7).
LATE ITEM
8. Early ouster of Egyptian president Nagib predicted (page 8).
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GENERAL
1. Bohlen reports on Khrushchev's remarks to French ambassador
at reception:
The French ambassador has told Ambas-
sador Bohlen that party first secretary
Khrushchev said at the 7 November
anniversary reception that the Soviet
government will "react vigorously" and will have to embark on
a larger defense program if the Paris agreements are ratified.
He also said that France and the Soviet Union have many interests
in common and "together they could do great things in Europe."
At one point in the conversation Molotov
attempted vainly to intervene and restrain Khrushchev, saying
this was neither the time nor place for such discussions. Fi-
nally, after the French ambassador had rejected his arguments,
Khrushchev threw his hands in the air and said "there is nothing
to be done," at which point Malenkov joined the group and re-
marked "there is always something to be done."
The reception confirmed Ambassador
Bohlen's previous impression that Malenkov is more realistic
than Khrushchev, who, he feels, is "not especially bright," and
"a man of emotion who lives on stereotyped party cliches!"
Noting that the "real strain" on the col-
lective leadership principle will probably come from the need to
reach agreement on important and difficult policy decisions rather
than from personal rivalries, Bohlen states that Soviet policy
toward Germany could theoretically present just such a divisive
issue. He comments that Molotov appeared extremely subdued
and ill at ease during the reception, and suggests that his conduct
of foreign affairs may be under criticism.
Comment: It is unlikely that ratifica-
tion of the Paris agreements by the Western European parliaments
would provoke any "vigorous" Soviet reaction which would lead to
a major shift in foreign policy. Moscow's failure after the London
conference to advance any new initiatives which might have fore-
stalled the Paris agreements suggests at least a temporary lack
of flexibility on this question.
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FAR EAST
2. Japanese press calls Yoshida's Washington talks a failure:
Japan's leading newspaper Asahi, in its
issue of 11 November, terms Prime
Minister Yoshida's talks in Washington
a failure. The press account states
that despite the optimistic language of
the Eisenhower-Yoshida statement, the
Japanese were actually disappointed,
since their negotiations with top American officials were little
more than polite conversations.
The Asahi report concludes by quoting
a member of the Japanese delegation who said he now realizes the
"misery of a defeated country."
Most of Japan's other leading newspapers
in their editions on 12 November also express dissatisfaction with
the Eisenhower-Yoshida joint statement and claim it was a weak
and insufficient counter to the Sino-Soviet declaration on Japan.
Comment: Although the results of the
Washington talks have probably not yet caused Yoshida's political
position to become critical, his conservative opponents have al-
ready begun to publicize the claim that he will return to Japan
empty-handed. This reaction will make it more difficult for the
prime minister to stave off the early formation of an anti-Yoshida
conservative party.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Viet Minh suggests representation for French Communist Party in
North Vietnam:
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Comment: Co-ordination of policies
between the Viet Minh and the French Communist Parties might
be used to strengthen the position of the French Communist Party
by exploiting or creating situations in which it could appear to hold
the key to Viet Minh concessions to French interests in Indochina.
4. General Ely concerned over American support of Vietnamese
premier:
General Ely, in a meeting with General
Collins on 9 November, expressed regret
that Collins' instructions called explicitly
for support of Premier Diem. Ely said
e wou con inue o support Diem, but said the premier was more
at fault than General Hinh for the prolongation of the crisis. He
again recommended that Tam, Hinh's father, be given the Interior
Ministry portfolio.
To Collins' proposal that the French
Expeditionary Corps be phased out at an accelerated rate, Ely re-
plied with the argument that a large French force will be necessary
for the protection of the 60,000 French nationals in Indochina. He
disagreed with Collins' assertion that the Manila pact should afford
the necessary protection against external aggression.
Comment: Ely's view that ex-premier
Tam is the ideal choice for interior minister has been repeatedly
challenged by Ambassador Heath. Moreover, one of the best in-
formed French officials in Saigon has admitted that Tam's presence
in office would be regarded as a symbol of French domination and
would aid the Communist cause.
Maintenance of the French Expeditionary
Corps to protect French nationals will tend to be a self-perpetuating
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arrangement, since a large French force will encourage French
nationals to remain in Indochina, while aggravating Vietnamese
despair of ever supplanting French authority except through ac-
commodation with the Viet Minh,
5. Philippine president expresses willingness to aid Vietnam:
During a discussion of the Vietnamese
situation with General Collins on 7
November, President Magsaysay of-
fered to talk personally with Vietnamese
chief of staff HinhtOh� bring him "into line" behind Premier
Ngo Dinh Diem. Magsaysay said the Philippines would prefer to
co-operate in training Vietnamese forces on a regular basis,
rather than have to send a Philippine division to Vietnam to com-
bat aggression. If it should become necessary, however, he
would even take the latter course.
Magsaysay stated that the Philippines
could not recognize the Diem government as long as the French
were really controlling it.
Comment: Magsaysay's interest in
giving some assistance to Vietnam is probably sincere. Any pro-
posals he may offer in this connection, however, are likely to
encounter serious opposition from powerful ultranationalistic
Philippine politicians, supported by elements in the army, who
oppose Manila's involvement in the Indochina problem.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Saudi official warns against Iraqi alignment with Turkey, Pakistan
and Iran:
in
conversation with Ambassador a sworth,
has predicted the Arab states' repudiation
of Iraq, a revolution in that country, and
the fall of its government if it co-operates with Turkey, Pakistan
and Iran in a regional defense system.
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that any attempt to line
up Iraq with non-Arab states would be regarded by the Arabs as
an effort to split the Arab League.
that Arab opposition
stemmed not from anti-American feeling but from a deep-seated
distrust of the centuries-old Iraqi tendency to undermine Arab
unity.
Comment: To the extent that this type
of thinking pervades the Arab states, it will delay action on
defense such as the negotiations on the Iraqi-Turkish defense
treaty reportedly being drafted by the Iraqi Foreign Ministry.
7. "Popular front" will oppose Greek Rally:
The four principal opposition parties in
Greece have formed a popular front to
defeat the government of the Greek Rally
in the 21 November municipal elections,
The Communist-
dominated United Democratic Left (EDA), the Liberal Party, the
National Progressive Union of the Center (EPEK) and the Demo-
cratic Party have divided Greek urban centers among themselves
and will support common candidates.
Comment: Such a formidable opposition
seriously threatens Rally control in several important Greek
cities, Losses in the municipal elections would weaken the Rally
nationally.
The Rally is also suffering from the dis-
integrating effect of the current cabinet crisis. The now active
opposition of former co-ordination minister Markezinis, and his
friends whom Prime Minister Papagos has just forced out of the
government, may cause a loss of public confidence in the govern-
ment's ability to carry on its economic program and contribute
to the factors working toward the Rally's collapse.
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LATE ITEM
8. Early ouster of Egyptian president Nagib predicted:
Comment: The regime has long de-
sired to remove Nagib and may feel that the president's popu-
larity has declined enough to allow his ouster. On 11 November
the government, possibly in an effort to prepare the public for
such a development, released accusations that Nagib was involved
in a Moslem Brotherhood plot to assassinate Nasr and seize
control.
The Revolutionary Command Council is
in a position to control any public demonstrations. In view of
the outcome of the power struggle last March, it is unlikely that
any army faction would rise to Nagib's support.
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