CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/11/21

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017657
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: November 21, 1954

Approved for Release: 2019/08/13
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21 November 1954
Copy No. SO
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 2 NO
-
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
I:1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S 0
NEXT REVIEW DATE 6/0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 2/1./da._ REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
/72717A
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Increase in Chinese Communist pressure on offshore islands
indicated (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3.
4. Comment on French-Ttunsian efforts to obtain fellagha surrender
(page 5).
LATIN AMERICA
5. Comment on growing instability in Paraguay (page 5
LATE ITEM
6. Comment on Molotov's press conference statement (page 6).
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FAR EAST
1. Increase in Chinese Communist pressure on offshore islands
indicated:
Comment: These developments, together
with reports of continued air and artillery attacks on the Tachen
Islands to the north, strongly suggest that Peiping is preparing to
continue and possibly increase the scale of military operations along
the coast throughout the winter.
The appearance of Communist air patrols
on the Fukien coast may discourage Nationalist air reconnaissance
in this area, where Taipei's planes had previously been endangered
only by Communist ground fire.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
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4. Comment on French-Tunisian efforts to obtain fellagha surrender:
The contemplated joint French-Tunisian
efforts to effect a surrender of the Tuni-
sian fellagha--quasi-military outlaws--
will result at most in a limited compli-
ance and may split the intemperate from the moderate nationalists.
This widely publicized compromise, however, may be the face-
saving formula necessary to hurdle the current crisis in the Paris
negotiations for Tunisian self-government.
A surrender by a token group could be
accepted by the French as re-establishment of authority. The main
body of the fellagha could then abandon the unequal struggle at
least for the time being. Those who surrender risk continuing
surveillance and later punitive action, despite proposed guaran-
tees. The concurrence of the nationalist Neo-Destour in this ar-
rangement invites rabid adherents of the party to disavow it and
to continue the struggle in their own manner.
The contemplated disarming of French
settlers, included in the new proposals, is a major concession
to Tunisian demands and will meet with intense and immediate
opposition in France as well as from French residents throughout
North Africa. In the unlikely event that any real attempt were
made to disarmjhe settlers idespread violence would ensue.
LATIN AMERICA
5. Comment on growing instability in Paraguay:
Recent developments in the Paraguayan
political situation, which has remained
unstable since the army revolt last May,
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suggest that new armed outbreaks might occur at any time.
Despite President Stroessner's efforts to placate conflicting
factions within his party, the government appears divided along
ragged lines into groups favoring or denouncing the politically
ambitious Mendez Fleitas, president of Paraguay's Central Bank,
whose friends have gained various important army and police
positions.
The highly-charged controversy over
Mendez sterns from the conflict of personal ambitions and his
opponents' belief that he is nro-Areentine and a Corn7unist.
Stroessner, also commander in chief
of the armed forces, has kept various army units on alert and
was in control of the situation as of 20 November.
LATE ITEM
6. Comment on Molotov's press conference statement:
Molotov's 20 November offer to postpone
the Soviet-proposed European security
conference if the West will delay ratifi-
cation of the Paris agreements was
primarily intended to provide additional justification for convok-
ing an Orbit security conference in Moscow in response to the
West's expected rejection of the conference proposal. It was also
designed to demonstrate the contrast between Moscow's alleged
readiness to open serious negotiations on European security and
Germany and the Western powers' determination to "speed the
remilitarization of Western Germany."
Aside from the offer to postpone the
29 November conference, Molotov simply reiterated the main
arguments advanced in the 13 November proposal for a European
security conference. His failure to use this occasion to put
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L VI-A-4XL.
forward any new substantive proposals suggests that the Soviet
leaders believe there is nothing they can do now to avert ratifi-
cation of the Paris accords. They are therefore chiefly pre-
occupied with preparing their position to meet the situation fol-
lowing ratification.
It can be expected that this new Soviet
proposal will receive the same negative reaction from the
Western powers as the earlier one. Western European leaders
are not interested in East-West talks until after the Paris agree-
ments are fully ratified.
In view of the prompt acceptance by
Communist China and the European Satellites of Moscow's
13 November invitation to participate in the proposed European
security conference, the USSR will probably proceed with an
Orbit meeting in Moscow timed to exert the maxi.mum influence
on the scheduled mid-December debates in Paris and Bonn. Such
a conference may result in either a draft mutual security treaty
similar to that proposed by Molotov at the Berlin conference or a
declaration on European security which will be offered to Western
Europe as an alternative to the Paris agreements. Moscow's ob-
ject in this would be to provide material and opportunities for
constant Communist agitation against the execution of re agree-
ments after ratification.
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