CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1954/11/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03017659
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: November 23, 1954

Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
Top SEC-RE'P
WO 14 /MOM
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c) /
p t
�VI
04/
23 November 1954
Copy No. 80
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO, es
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: .P1 /t
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
rry rl ri r� Pr
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
Nor'
SUMMARY
1.
GENERAL
FAR EAST
2. Thirty-three Japanese Diet members bolt Liberal Party (page 3).
3. Comment on new South Korean bid to oust Communist members
of UN commission (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on probable talks between India and Pakistan (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Diplomatic impasse between Libya and France threatened
(page 5).
LATIN AMERICA
6. Overthrow of Costa Rican president predicted before Christmas
(page 6).
23 Nov 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
ToP crrprr
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
ApproveafOr�ReieWe:25-17/08/13 C03017659
view
GENERAL
1.
FAR EAST
2. Thirty-three Japanese Diet members bolt Liberal Party:
Thirty-three lower house Liberals,
headed by Ichiro Hatoyama and including
State Minister Masazumi Ando, resigned
from the Liberal Party on 22 November,
according to the American embassy in Tokyo. The embassy
comments that while the defection of Ando and his pro-Hatoyama
colleagues had been anticipated for some time, it is nevertheless
a serious blow to the Yoshida cabinet's prestige.
23 Nov 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3
Approved for C03017659
Approved r"
e77orReleagri. 2711T/08/13 C03017659
Liberal Party leaders have scheduled
a meeting for 23 November at Yoshida's request to advise the
prime minister on how to cope with the present political
situation.
Comment: Ando's resignation probably
means he is now convinced Yoshida's fortunes are definitely on
the downgrade. Previously, although outspokenly critical of the
prime minister, Ando stayed within the Liberal fold and was
instrumental in bringing Hatoyama back into the Liberal Party in
November 1953.
The anti-Yoshida "new party" organization,
Including the 33 Liberals who have just resigned, is believed now
to have about 120 of the approximately 310 lower house conservative
members. There are approximately 145 pro-Yoshida conservatives
and 45 neutrals and independents. There are 466 seats in the lower
house.
According to late press reports, Yoshida
in the 23 November meeting will leave to Liberal Party executives
the decision as to whether he should resign. This, however, may
be merely a call for a vote of confidence from his cabinet.
3. Comment on new South Korean bid to oust Communist members
of UN commission:
South Korean provost marshal Won
addressed a letter on 22 November to
the heads of the Communist delegations
on the neutral truce supervisory teams asking that they reply
favorably within one week to a request to withdraw from Korea.
This demand reflects Rhee's desire to get rid of Communist
members of the teams, which he fears the United Nations may
call on to supervise Korea-wide elections.
Won threatened that if a favorable
response were not forthcoming, South Korea would take "positive
measures for self-defense."
23 Nov 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
7'11D err.nrinr
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
South Korea wanted to eject Communist
members of the neutral inspection commission last July, but
held back in deference to assurances that the United States would
strive to terminate the teams' operations through peaceful
negotiations.
Because he has set a deadline, Won will
probably feel compelled to take at least token action against the
Communist members of the teams. General Hull's reiteration on
22 November that he would protect the neutral teams may. induce
Won to employ civilian rou s in organized demonstrations.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on probable talks between India and Pakistan:
Indian-Pakistani talks, to which Prime
Minister Nehru agreed on 21 November,
are not likely to make much headway
toward a settlement of outstanding
political differences between the two
countries, for example the Kashmir
dispute, although there may be some
progress toward better economic relations, especially in trade
matters. India has not been willing to make any major concessions
in previous bilateral negotiations. Pakistan, which proposed the
new talks, has been prepared to go further in the past in seeking
agreement with India.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Diplomatic impasse between Libya and France threatened:
French minister Dumarcay in Tripoli
has received what he has described as
"inflexible instructions, "purportedly
23 Nov 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
TOP SECRET
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
Approved for rcirr�Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
cleared by by Premier Mendes-France, on how to reply to Libya's
request of 13 November that France evacuate its military forces
from the Fezzan�southern province of Libya--by 31 December
1954.
According to the instructions, Dumarcay
is to inform the Libyan foreign minister that (a) present negotia-
tions on technical, economic and cultural conventions are terminated,
(b) French forces will remain in the Fezzan pending the receipt
of new Libyan proposals, and (c) all agreements reached thus far
are canceled.
Dumarcay admitted to British ambas-
sador Kirkbride that this reply would result in a Franco-Libyan
impasse and might have "even more serious consequences." He
appealed to Kirkbride to intervene with Libyan prime minister
Ben Halim to induce the Libyans to retract their letter of 13
November.
Kirkbride decided, following an inter-
view with Ben Halim, that in view of the premier's insistence on
the 31 December deadline and the current political instability in
Libya, it would be futile to attempt to persuade either Ben Halim
or King Idriss to "backtrack at this time.
Comment: France's unyielding attitude
in its efforts to negotiate an agreement with Libya to retain French
military forces in the Fezzan can be expected to accentuate Arab
opposition to French policy elsewhere in North Africa. It may
encourage Libya to condone illegal frontier crossings into ad-
jacent Tunisia by "nationalists, " which France has frequently
accused Libya of doing in the past.
LATIN AMERICA
6. Overthrow of Costa Rican president predicted before Christmas:
23 No 54
predicted to the American
army attach�here on 19 November
that Costa Rican president Figueres
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6
Tr) 1-1 crrli?E'T
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 003017659
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659
would be overthrown before Christmas.
added that the
plotters' main difficulty is disagreement between the group in
Honduras, led by the brother of former Costa Rican president
Calderon Guardia, and the followers in Nicaragua of ousted
president Picardo of Costa Rica,.
Comment: The American embassy ex-
pressed the belief on 18 November that any attempted revolution
would begin within 30 days.
The Costa Rican government is alert
to the danger. Its defense plans are reported to be based on
the assumption that prompt American assistance will be forth-
coming if necessary.
23 Nov 54 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7
40% eft Fr, oN rm. r-+ rirr
Approved for Release: 2019/08/13 C03017659