CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/21

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03017660
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RIPPUB
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U
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9
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September 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
September 26, 2019
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Publication Date: 
January 21, 1955
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Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 TOP SECRET 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) 21 January 1955 79 Copy CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY No. Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 _ sue Nei SUMMARY GENERAL 1. Molotov implies Communist China will release American fliers (page 3). SOVIET UNION 2. Soviet journal clarifies line on heavy industrial development (page 3). SOUTHEAST ASIA 3. Serious disturbances foreseen if South Vietnam's private armies are demobilized (page 4). NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Comment on Arab League crisis (page 5). 5. Comment on possible dynastic struggle in Libya (page 6). EASTERN EUROPE 6, East Germany reportedly will claim jurisdiction over Western commercial use of air corridors (page 6). 7. Serious cattle disease reported in East Germany (page 7). WESTERN EUROPE 8. West German Socialists reportedly will drop opposition to Paris accords after ratification (page 8). LATE ITEM 9. Large concentration of boats noted near Tachens and Matsus (page 8). 21 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 --TOP-SEeRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 Approved for ReleaSe-: 20T9)09/17 C03017660 Nee GENERAL 1. Molotov implies Communist China will release American fliers: Foreign Minister Molotov gave the im- pression to Indonesian ambassador Subandrio, who raised the question with him about a week ago, that the Ameri- can fliers neia by uommunist China would eventually be released. Molotov added that "we released our prisoners," apparently re- ferring to the Americans recently turned over to American author- ities in Berlin. Comment: In mid-December the Soviet delegation at the UN was reportalo have told other delegations that the Soviet Union was "unhappy" about the Chinese action and was using its influence to get Peiping to release the fliers. Mos- cow probably considered that the Chinese action detracted from the USSR's' Conciliatory pose. Chou En-lai's statements to UN secretary general Hammarskj old indicated that Peiping might release at least some of the 15 American airmen within the next few months if there were no attempt to "intimidate" the regime. It is possi- ble, however, that the Chinese Communists intend instead to hold the airmen for unofficial bargaining, seeking American compro- mises on larger questions in exchange for the airmen's release. SOVIET UNION 2. Soviet journal clarifies line on heavy industrial development: The lead editorial in the latest issue of Party Life, journal of the central com- mittee of the Communist Party, is seen by the American embassy in Moscow as the clearest indication yet that there has recently been serious high-level discussion of the relative priorities to be accorded various sectors of the economy. The editorial suggests that the recent press emphasis on the high priority to be accorded heavy industry has disappointed hopes for increased supplies of con- sumers' goods. 21 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 TOP�SEGMT Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 _ Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 *woe The editorial may constitute a warning that opposition to this formula is inadvisable, since it criticizes those who do not support or co-operate with a number of policies of the Soviet government. It singles out for attack the idea that "development in all possible ways of heavy industry is now in contradiction with the economic laws of socialism." Several prom- inent theoretical writers are identified as holding erroneous views. Comment: This editorial appears to con- firm earlier speculation that divergent points of view on economic priorities, noted in Pravda and Izvestia in late December, re- flected high-level discussion and possibly controversy regarding such priorities. Any implicit contradiction between the "new course" policies and the requirements of continued rapid devel- opment of heavy industry has now apparently been resolved. Any downward revision of "new course" plans for 1955 resulting from such agreement would probably be relatively small and limited to manufactured consumers' goods, since the Soviet press has continued to emphasize the importance of both agriculture and housing. SOUTHEAST ASIA 3. Serious disturbances foreseen if South Vietnam b private armies are Temobilized: A French officer in contact with Trinh Minh The states that the dissident Cao Dai leader is deeply disturbed over American plans to support only a reduced Vietnamese national army. He is said to is troops and those of other sect leaders will result in their breaking up into bandit groups to prey upon the countryside. The French officer has proposed instead that the United States also give assistance to an auxiliary force composed of troops from these private armies in order to keep them from banditry and to provide a "screening force" while the nucleus of a national army battle corps is being trained. 21 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 TOP-SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 '410.1 *irrov Comment: Trinh Minh The and some other sectarian army leaders have recently made overtures to have their troops integrated into the Vietnamese army. Although this would solve the immediate problem of troop pay, previously met in part by the French, the Diem government must find a more permanent solution if it is to avoid serious disturbances after the reduction of the military establishment. NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Comment on Arab League crisis: the Iraqi and Egyptian governments are about to engage in what may develop into the bitterest test of strength in the Arab world since World War IL The struggle has been precipitated by Iraq b decision to conclude a defense treaty with Turkey "in the very near future." Iraq thus challenges Egyptian leadership of the Arab League and disregards the league's ban against Arab collabora- tion with Western defense planning. Iraq shows no sign of backing down on its defense decision despite the strong hostility of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The king, crown prince and six ex-prime minis- ters of Iraq have indicated their support of the position taken by Prime Minister Nun i Said. Egypt has summoned an emergency meet- ing of the Arab League for 22 January to consider the situation. At the same time Cairob press and radio are conducting a cam- paign to unseat Nun i Said. There is little likelihood that the league meeting will resolve Iraqi-Egyptian differences, especially since Nun i has refused to attend the meeting. 21 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 TOP-SECRET 411111111r 5. Comment on possible dynastic struggle in Libya: of behind-the-scene political maneuvers among the Libyan tribes by members of the Sharif branch of the royal family, as well as by Salah Buweisir, 'Racier oi tne parliamentary opposition, suggest that a grave dynas- tic struggle may erupt in Libya in the near future. King Idriss. has been generally co-operative with the United States and Ben Halim has been outspokenly friendly. EASTERN EUROPE 6. East Germany reportedly will claim jurisdiction over Western commercial use of air corridors: The East German Foreign Ministry reportedly concluded during the latter part of 1954 that the Soviet grant of sovereignty had given East Germany jurisdiction over its air space and that agreements for commercial use of the air corridors into Berlin would have to be negotiated between the governments of East Germany and the Western countries concerned. The ministry is also reported to have determined, however, on the basis of its study of the effects of sovereignty on the status of the Western powers in Berlin, that 21 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 Approved7o7R-ele-a;-:-201-9759/17 C030117660 Approved Torr-Reiese----2(5-1-6/09/17 C03017660 Nue the Western allies have a right to maintain a garrison in West Berlin and to use the air corridors for military tr_msport to sup- ply this garrison. Comment: Any attempt by East Germany to assert jurisdiction over the air corridors would probably be aimed primarily at forcing Western diplomatic recognition. It is believed that several countries, such as the Scandinavian and Bene- lux states, would be receptive to East German proposals to con- clude reciprocal air agreements, though they would seek to nego- tiate on a nongovernmental level. 7. Serious cattle disease reported in East Germany: An outbreak of a serious cattle disease which is believed by West German veteri- narians to be rinderpest is reported in the northeastern and southern parts of East Germany. Comment: According to the West Ger- man press, the East Germ�If-1 jovernment has admitted the pres- ence of a virus disease but has denied that it is rinderpest, a highly contagious and usually fatal cattle disease. Although a conclusive diagnosis is not yet possible, there is considerable evidence that the disease is rinderpest. This disease, if not quickly eradicated, would proba- bly result in severe restrictions on international trade and commerce. In this event, it is considered likely that Soviet bloc propaganda would accuse the United States of biological warfare against East German livestock. An official East German broadcast of 3 December, in re- porting that a cattle disease which frequently resulted in death of the livestock had broken out in the Leipzig area, blamed it on "our opponents." (Concurred in by OSI) 21 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7 TOP�SE�RET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 TOP-SECRET Nue WESTERN EUROPE 8. West German Socialists reportedly will drop opposition to Paris accords after ratification: Erich 011enhauer, chairman of the West German opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD), has stated that the SPD will feel forced to drop its oppo- cords once they are ratified and to urge young men to comply with remilitarzation laws 011enhauer is reported to have indicated that SPD efforts after ratification of the Paris accords will be di- rected toward achieving a "democratic', defense establishment and full citizenship rights for conscripts. , Regarding the Paris accords, 011enhauer has preferred to see no constitutional argument against ratifica- tion and Herbert Wehner, SPD foreign policy adviser, has com- mented that the objections to the accords do not represent consti- tutional issues. Comment: Although the SPD does not seriously hope to block ratification of the Paris accords and is in fact planning to exert positive influence on implementing legisla- tion, the party is not likely to cease its propaganda against rearm- ament. The Socialists are trying to make an indelible impression on the West German public that they oppose rearmament because it will result in an end to all hopes of reunification. They intend to make this their major issue in the 1957 elections. LATE ITEM 9. Large concentration of boats noted near Tachens and Matsus: Some 22000 boats were observed on 20 January near the Tachen Islands and another group of more than 1,000 boats was seen in the vicinity of the 21 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 8 Approved for Release:-07-9769/17 C03017660 re v., ����. f��� V-i rev Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660 Nod '440 Matsu Islands to the south, No unusual concentration was noted near the Quemoys. Comment: The reported concentrations may merely represent fishing fleets. The Chinese Communists are dependent on such craft, however, for major amphibious opera- tions, and the sightings may indicate preparations for another in- vasion. Meanwhile, Peiping radio has appealed directly to General Liu Lien-i, Nationalist commander in the Tachens, to give up, promising him and his troops good treatment if they defect. General Liu's morale has been reported to be very low. 21 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9 T0P-SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03017660