CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/01/15

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03020483
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: January 15, 1956

Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
TOP SECRET
15 January 1956
Copy No. 0 :3
DOCUMENT NO. 45- V
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
CI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE- 2010
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATEi VIEWER
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
4
0';
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CONTENTS
1. THE SOVIET SIXTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN
(page 3).
2. FIRST USE OF NEW CHINESE COMMUNIST AIR BASE
OPPOSITE TAIWAN (page 5).
3. INDIA REPORTEDLY TEMPTED BY SOVIET AIRCRAFT
OFFER (page 7).
4. ALGERIAN SITUATION WORSENING
(page 8).
5. LAOS SUBMITS PROPOSALS FOR SETTLEMENT OF
PATHET LAO ISSUE (page 9).
15 Jan 56
* * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 10)
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10 THE SOVIET SIXTH FlVE-YEAR PLAN
The draft directives for the Soviet
Sixth Five-Year Plan which will be
presented to the 20th Party Congress
continue the focus of Soviet economic policy on the growth
of heavy industry. Successful completion of the Fifth Five-
Year Plan (1951-55) has raised Soviet industrial output
from about one fifth that of the US to over one quarter.
Fulfillment of the new goals for industry, which are be-
lieved to be within Soviet capabilities, will make Soviet
production over one third as large as US production in
1960.
The new directives define surpassing
the United States in per capita production as "the main
economic task of the USSR." During the coming five years,
this policy will strengthen the USSR's military potential but
precludes any rapid improvement in living standards. The
plans for light industry and agriculture, which are less
likely to be fulfilled, are relatively modest in some instances
and will produce steady but small gains in individual consump-
tion.
Industrial output for the heavy industry
sector is to increase by 70 percent. In comparison, a 91-
percent increase was achieved under the previous plan.
However, growth of the energy sector will continue at ap-
proximately the same rate as that attained during 1951-55.
The 1960 output goals for steel, pig iron, coal, oil and elec-
tric power exceed by substantial margins the goals set by
Stalin in 1946 to be reached during 1960-65.
To accomplish these tasks, heavy indus-
try will receive the lion's share of new investments totaling
67 percent more than investments under the Fifth Five-Year
Plan. An increasing share will be devoted to advanced types
of machinery, with a goal of raising industrial labor pro-
ductivity by 50 percent, For the first time, existing plants
are to be modernized on a large scale. With the manpower
supply tightening, the state labor force is to grow by only
6.5 million in comparison with 7.8 million during 1951-55.
15 Jan 56
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Agricultural policy continues to rely on
the "new lands" and corn schemes, coupled with further
mechanization and closer control of the collective farms.
These policies have produced disappointing results to date,
and the 1960 targets remain unrealistic. Lagging agricul-
ture will continue to hamper the growth of light industry,
as the directives admit it has done in the past�
The large increase planned in total in-
vestment will also slow down the growth of consumption.
Retail trade during the five-year period is to increase by
only 50 percent as compared with about 90 percent in the
previous period. Increases in real income, according to
Soviet estimates, also are to shrink: the per capita gain
for state employees is planned at 30 percent as compared
to a 39-percent increase achieved from 1951 to 1955, The
figures for collective farmers show the same trend (40 per-
cent planned against 50 percent claimed for the Fifth Five-
Year Plan). The higher figures reflect the party's continu-
ing effort to bring rural living standards closer to those in
the towns. A vigorous attack on the housing shortage calls
for a doubling of state housing construction during the Sixth
Five-Year Plan. (prepared by ORR)
15 Jan 56
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NOW
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Nur
FIRST USE OF NEW CHINESE COMMUNIST AIR BASE
OPPOSITE TAIWAN
The first use of any of the new Chinese
Communist airfields on the coast op-
posite Taiwan was noted on 11 January
when two MIG-15 jet fighters from
Canton landed in the Swatow area, ap-
parently at the Chenghai base. The
aircraft, which had attempted to inter-
cept an overflight of Chinese Nationalist
reconnaissance planes in the Swatow area, returned to
Canton on 13 January.
Comment
It is not yet certain whether use of this
Swatow-area base will be limited for
the time being to refueling or whether planes are soon to
be stationed there.
15 Jan 56
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TAIWAN STRAIT SITUATION
15 JANUARY 58
CHINESE COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND:
DESIGNATIONS
ACTIVE BASE FOR MILITARY & CIVILIAN AIR-
CRAFT. SOME BASES USED BY PISTON TYPES
MAY BE USABLE BY JETS
PRIMARY AIRFIELD SECONDARY AIRFIELD
AUXILIARY OR EMERGENCY BASES miG-15 TU-2,
CONSIDERED MOST IMPORTANT IN OR FIELDS OF LESSER IMPORTANCE. 6
IL 10
AREA WITH PREPARED RUNWAY RUNWAYS GENERALLY LESS THAN miG-17 -
OPERATIONAL A 1-28 ETC.
GENERALLY 5000 FEET OR LONGER. 5000 FEET. LA-9/1 I
111-4LI-2
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USABILITY
?
INACTIVE BASES CAPABLE OF USE BY AIRCRAFT
CURRENT STATUS UNDETERMINED
SERVICEABLE A
UNKNOWN
M
* FIELDS NOT CONSIDERED CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING SUSTAINED OPER-
ATIONS AT PRESENT.
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3. INDIA REPORTEDLY TEMPTED BY SOVIET AIRCRAFT
OFFER
Comment
The Indian air force, whose present
equipment is British, would probably
prefer to standardize with British aircraft. However,
Air Marshal Mukerjee, who visited the USSR last summer,
and other Indian officials have reportedly been impressed
by the high performance and low prices of Soviet aircraft.
Unless acceptable terms and prompt delivery can be ob-
tained for Western aircraft, India may accept the Soviet
offers�
The British High Commissioner in New
Delhi has been pushing Britain's counteroffer of Canberra
bombers and now believes India will purchase the Canberras
and arrange to build a plant for production of British Gnat
fighters.
by ORR)
15 Jan 56
(Concurred in
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7
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4. ALGERIAN SITUATION WORSENING
Military measures in Algeria remain
ineffective and terrorist activities are
spreading, in the opinion of the Ameri-
can consul general in Algiers. At the
same time, the differences between the extremists and
moderates are growing both among the French settlers
and the Algerian Moslems.
Jacques Chevallier, mayor of Algiers
and the leading local French liberal, informed the consul
general that a general insurrection is probable in 60 days
if France has not replaced the ineffective administration
in Algeria with something realistic.
Comment Other sources confirm the worsening
situation in Algeria. The resignation
of Governor General Soustelle, who continues to advocate
closer Algerian integration with France, was reported
and denied on 12 January when details of his recommen-
dations were made public. His replacement nevertheless
seems assured.
15 Jan 56
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5. LAOS SUBMITS PROPOSALS FOR SETTLEMENT OF
PATHET LAO ISSUE
The Laotian government in a letter of
7 January outlining new proposals for
a settlement of the Pathet Lao problem,
has suggested to the Geneva co-chair-
en, � e an olotov, that the Pathet Lao, under close
supervision of the International Control Commission, sur-
render their arms by 15 March. Pathet Lao personnel,
after processing, would be reintegrated into Laotian
society and all "foreign elements" returned to their coun-
try of origin. The letter concluded with a warning that un-
less the co-chairmen promoted some such remedy, the
government might be compelled to take direct action to re-
store order.
Comment This letter reflects an increased de-
termination on the part of the Laotian
government, strengthened by the recent elections, to end
the dispute over the two northern provinces. The pro-
posals parallel closely those contained in a 7 January ICC
resolution, calling for the prompt restoration of royal con-
trol over the two provinces and the nondiscriminatory in-
tegration of the Pathet Lao into the national community.
The abstention of the Polish delegate
on the ICC resolution as well as the recent inauguration
by the Pathet Lao of a broadened national front indicates
that the Communists have no intention of giving up their
foothold in Laos at this time.
15 Jan 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 15 January)
No significant military activity on the
frontier has been reported.
the Israelis are strengthening their de-
fenses along the Israeli-Jordanian border, apparently as
a protective measure, because of events in Jordan.
The American naval attach�n Cairo
reports that
an Egyptian naval force consisting of two coastal mine-
sweepers and four motor torpedo boats moved through
the Suez Canal on the night of 7 January heading south.
According to the American ambassador
in Tel Aviv, the Israeli government believes that Israeli
pilots must begin training with modern jets in February "and
in no case later than March." They estimate Egyptian pilots
will be competent to use jets in combat by truly. The
Israelis estimate that Egypt now has 65 MIG jet fighters
and 15 IL-28 bombers. While these figures may in part
reflect the Israeli desire to lend a sense of urgency to
their requests for American support, the estimate of So-
viet planes in Egypt appears to be reasonable.
15 Jan 56
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