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October 25, 2019
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October 31, 2019
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January 15, 1956
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15740197].pdf370.75 KB
Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN TOP SECRET 15 January 1956 Copy No. 0 :3 DOCUMENT NO. 45- V NO CHANGE IN CLASS. CI DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE- 2010 AUTH: HR 70-2 DATEi VIEWER OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 4 0'; TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/101/21 C03020483 IA 1,0 1..1%.0& 1.11-.� a CONTENTS 1. THE SOVIET SIXTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN (page 3). 2. FIRST USE OF NEW CHINESE COMMUNIST AIR BASE OPPOSITE TAIWAN (page 5). 3. INDIA REPORTEDLY TEMPTED BY SOVIET AIRCRAFT OFFER (page 7). 4. ALGERIAN SITUATION WORSENING (page 8). 5. LAOS SUBMITS PROPOSALS FOR SETTLEMENT OF PATHET LAO ISSUE (page 9). 15 Jan 56 * * * THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (page 10) Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 16,1.4%.04 1.8.4 s moo, 'Imre 10 THE SOVIET SIXTH FlVE-YEAR PLAN The draft directives for the Soviet Sixth Five-Year Plan which will be presented to the 20th Party Congress continue the focus of Soviet economic policy on the growth of heavy industry. Successful completion of the Fifth Five- Year Plan (1951-55) has raised Soviet industrial output from about one fifth that of the US to over one quarter. Fulfillment of the new goals for industry, which are be- lieved to be within Soviet capabilities, will make Soviet production over one third as large as US production in 1960. The new directives define surpassing the United States in per capita production as "the main economic task of the USSR." During the coming five years, this policy will strengthen the USSR's military potential but precludes any rapid improvement in living standards. The plans for light industry and agriculture, which are less likely to be fulfilled, are relatively modest in some instances and will produce steady but small gains in individual consump- tion. Industrial output for the heavy industry sector is to increase by 70 percent. In comparison, a 91- percent increase was achieved under the previous plan. However, growth of the energy sector will continue at ap- proximately the same rate as that attained during 1951-55. The 1960 output goals for steel, pig iron, coal, oil and elec- tric power exceed by substantial margins the goals set by Stalin in 1946 to be reached during 1960-65. To accomplish these tasks, heavy indus- try will receive the lion's share of new investments totaling 67 percent more than investments under the Fifth Five-Year Plan. An increasing share will be devoted to advanced types of machinery, with a goal of raising industrial labor pro- ductivity by 50 percent, For the first time, existing plants are to be modernized on a large scale. With the manpower supply tightening, the state labor force is to grow by only 6.5 million in comparison with 7.8 million during 1951-55. 15 Jan 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 � Approved for Release: 2019/10/21_C03020483 NNW Agricultural policy continues to rely on the "new lands" and corn schemes, coupled with further mechanization and closer control of the collective farms. These policies have produced disappointing results to date, and the 1960 targets remain unrealistic. Lagging agricul- ture will continue to hamper the growth of light industry, as the directives admit it has done in the past� The large increase planned in total in- vestment will also slow down the growth of consumption. Retail trade during the five-year period is to increase by only 50 percent as compared with about 90 percent in the previous period. Increases in real income, according to Soviet estimates, also are to shrink: the per capita gain for state employees is planned at 30 percent as compared to a 39-percent increase achieved from 1951 to 1955, The figures for collective farmers show the same trend (40 per- cent planned against 50 percent claimed for the Fifth Five- Year Plan). The higher figures reflect the party's continu- ing effort to bring rural living standards closer to those in the towns. A vigorous attack on the housing shortage calls for a doubling of state housing construction during the Sixth Five-Year Plan. (prepared by ORR) 15 Jan 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 Approved for for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 NOW Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Nur FIRST USE OF NEW CHINESE COMMUNIST AIR BASE OPPOSITE TAIWAN The first use of any of the new Chinese Communist airfields on the coast op- posite Taiwan was noted on 11 January when two MIG-15 jet fighters from Canton landed in the Swatow area, ap- parently at the Chenghai base. The aircraft, which had attempted to inter- cept an overflight of Chinese Nationalist reconnaissance planes in the Swatow area, returned to Canton on 13 January. Comment It is not yet certain whether use of this Swatow-area base will be limited for the time being to refueling or whether planes are soon to be stationed there. 15 Jan 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 'L/1 OIL:A..1W 1 r4111111. TAIWAN STRAIT SITUATION 15 JANUARY 58 CHINESE COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND: DESIGNATIONS ACTIVE BASE FOR MILITARY & CIVILIAN AIR- CRAFT. SOME BASES USED BY PISTON TYPES MAY BE USABLE BY JETS PRIMARY AIRFIELD SECONDARY AIRFIELD AUXILIARY OR EMERGENCY BASES miG-15 TU-2, CONSIDERED MOST IMPORTANT IN OR FIELDS OF LESSER IMPORTANCE. 6 IL 10 AREA WITH PREPARED RUNWAY RUNWAYS GENERALLY LESS THAN miG-17 - OPERATIONAL A 1-28 ETC. GENERALLY 5000 FEET OR LONGER. 5000 FEET. LA-9/1 I 111-4LI-2 _ . USABILITY ? INACTIVE BASES CAPABLE OF USE BY AIRCRAFT CURRENT STATUS UNDETERMINED SERVICEABLE A UNKNOWN M * FIELDS NOT CONSIDERED CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SUSTAINED OPER- ATIONS AT PRESENT. --me � 118 120 KIANGSU L..._,_. / e ,/ CHI AHSING- , \ r - --- '''''''` j HANGCHOW / 0 -c. 7 I _ r ,- ...) k..... --- 1. ,.2 i r ...., l . ) / . -`.' HIUCHIANG i \ -� CHUHSIEN , t) NANCHAN \ SHANGJAO LUCH IA0 4111*A.0 1,1 \ -28 CHANGSHA ., - A-Yingtan_ / c x WENCHOW 0 ( /+ ( 0.,,Ni ,- I / + - 1 (-) \ ( -, `'� i 't \,, - I� - e \ 1 H NGYANG N. 1:,,,c, . ._ Ac;CHIENOU* -"-xl, Nanping , i. .f / . ing !et i x .) ) 26 i, 7, FOOCHOW rJS NANTAIQO. MA-1:51'r 14ungan 1 i f oik CHANGIINGt LI EN6HENG ALUNOtIEN Npsi-we '-) ,.._ I ,_.".. TAoyuAN' .) 1 Lt. . k -4 �......) / 5-- TAIPEI ) _ f �--- \ KAO:CHI* aLtilaVA, _ x \ se-tHINVANG r' N_ \- HSINCU le- RAN t .-,- - LIJNGCHl __mAcHIANG-* e H \ A OY' , EMOY _ AICHUNG I ' i 24 ) ) KWANGTUNG \ CHENGHAI 0: CANTON SWATOW - - ,,. NAUTICAL MILES 50 100 r-4 50 100 STATUTE MILES sHU I KOU 150 150 I I I F RAILROAD PROPOSED RAILROAD HIAYI *NATIONALIST AIRFIELD PRIMARY ROADS SECONDARY ROADS fil)1 14- 60103-2E Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 &a 'IL 4141.011 611.4 3. INDIA REPORTEDLY TEMPTED BY SOVIET AIRCRAFT OFFER Comment The Indian air force, whose present equipment is British, would probably prefer to standardize with British aircraft. However, Air Marshal Mukerjee, who visited the USSR last summer, and other Indian officials have reportedly been impressed by the high performance and low prices of Soviet aircraft. Unless acceptable terms and prompt delivery can be ob- tained for Western aircraft, India may accept the Soviet offers� The British High Commissioner in New Delhi has been pushing Britain's counteroffer of Canberra bombers and now believes India will purchase the Canberras and arrange to build a plant for production of British Gnat fighters. by ORR) 15 Jan 56 (Concurred in Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7 -SECRET- Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 AMA A .11.1 A.4 AV A A A-11 A.di ;goof NOW' 4. ALGERIAN SITUATION WORSENING Military measures in Algeria remain ineffective and terrorist activities are spreading, in the opinion of the Ameri- can consul general in Algiers. At the same time, the differences between the extremists and moderates are growing both among the French settlers and the Algerian Moslems. Jacques Chevallier, mayor of Algiers and the leading local French liberal, informed the consul general that a general insurrection is probable in 60 days if France has not replaced the ineffective administration in Algeria with something realistic. Comment Other sources confirm the worsening situation in Algeria. The resignation of Governor General Soustelle, who continues to advocate closer Algerian integration with France, was reported and denied on 12 January when details of his recommen- dations were made public. His replacement nevertheless seems assured. 15 Jan 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 %LI IA NNW. NSW 5. LAOS SUBMITS PROPOSALS FOR SETTLEMENT OF PATHET LAO ISSUE The Laotian government in a letter of 7 January outlining new proposals for a settlement of the Pathet Lao problem, has suggested to the Geneva co-chair- en, � e an olotov, that the Pathet Lao, under close supervision of the International Control Commission, sur- render their arms by 15 March. Pathet Lao personnel, after processing, would be reintegrated into Laotian society and all "foreign elements" returned to their coun- try of origin. The letter concluded with a warning that un- less the co-chairmen promoted some such remedy, the government might be compelled to take direct action to re- store order. Comment This letter reflects an increased de- termination on the part of the Laotian government, strengthened by the recent elections, to end the dispute over the two northern provinces. The pro- posals parallel closely those contained in a 7 January ICC resolution, calling for the prompt restoration of royal con- trol over the two provinces and the nondiscriminatory in- tegration of the Pathet Lao into the national community. The abstention of the Polish delegate on the ICC resolution as well as the recent inauguration by the Pathet Lao of a broadened national front indicates that the Communists have no intention of giving up their foothold in Laos at this time. 15 Jan 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 -SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483 Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 CO3020483 _ _ _ _ NW' THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (Information as of 1700, 15 January) No significant military activity on the frontier has been reported. the Israelis are strengthening their de- fenses along the Israeli-Jordanian border, apparently as a protective measure, because of events in Jordan. The American naval attach�n Cairo reports that an Egyptian naval force consisting of two coastal mine- sweepers and four motor torpedo boats moved through the Suez Canal on the night of 7 January heading south. According to the American ambassador in Tel Aviv, the Israeli government believes that Israeli pilots must begin training with modern jets in February "and in no case later than March." They estimate Egyptian pilots will be competent to use jets in combat by truly. The Israelis estimate that Egypt now has 65 MIG jet fighters and 15 IL-28 bombers. While these figures may in part reflect the Israeli desire to lend a sense of urgency to their requests for American support, the estimate of So- viet planes in Egypt appears to be reasonable. 15 Jan 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 10 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03020483