CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/02/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03023210
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: February 19, 1959

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19 February 1959
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CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. X
DECLASSIMED
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19`FEBRUARY 1959
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Khrushchev reaffirms tough line on
Berlin.
Peiping stung by Western criticism;
publicizes defense of communes.
JAEIC evaluates Soviet general's re-
marks about nuclear weapons.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
UK, Greek, and Turkish foreign min-
isters hold emergency sessions to
avert breakdown of Cyprus negotia-
tions.
Morocco - King's two-week trip
abroad may lead to further instability.
Guinea responding to bloc diplomatic
and economic overtures.
Cambodia - Defensive precautions
being taken by Sihanouk's and Dap
Chhuon's forces; Chhuon hopes for
peaceful solution.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
19 February 1959
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
USSR: In his speech at Tula on 17 February, Khru-
shchev adopted a defiant attitude toward the Western powers'
determination, reaffirmed in their notes of 16 February, to
uphold by all appropriate means their communications with
West Berlin. He repeated previous public warnings that "if
anybody should start shooting, this would mean the beginning
of war." Khrushchev's tough line on negotiations suggests the
USSR will promptly carry out its announced intention to trans-
fer control over Allied access and sign a separate peace treaty
with East Germany if the West rejects Soviet proposals on
Berlin and a German treaty. His favorable reference to Sen-
ator Mansfield's proposal for direct negotiations between East
and West Germany underscores Moscow's effort to confront
the West with a choice between measures carrying a serious
risk of war or concessions which would erode the Western po-
sition on Berlin and German reunification.
(Page 1)
Communist China: Peiping radio has broadcast two re-
cent articles from the party's leading newspaper and theoret-
ical journal with the stated purpose of refuting US and other
Western criticism of the commune program. This and sim-
ilar articles in the past indicate the degree of Peiping's sen-
sitivity to adverse international reaction to this program. The
commune system continues to receive a very bad press through-
out Asia, with the exception of Cambodia. While the Chinese
Communist party's December plenum modified some of the ex-
tremes of the program, such as measures affecting family life
and personal property, Peiping intends to push the development
of communes in 1959. (
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USSR: Jibe Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee
Lbelieves the-Soviet fission weapons yields reported to the
Swedes by General of the Army Popov--2, 5, 10, 20, and 50
kilotons�probably do not represent the full spectrum avail-
able to the Soviet military forces. Further, it is believed -71
the Soviet thermonuclear stockpile certainly contains a selec-
tion of yields ranging from 200 kilotons to eight megatons,
rather than a single thermonuclear weapon as Popov impliedtj
(Page 3)
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Cyprus: Cimergency meetings of the British, Greek, and
Turkish foreign ministers dealing with the Cyprus issue are
being held in London to avert complete breakdown of negotia-
tions following the "dramatic quarrel" between Greek Prime
Minister Karamanlis and Archbishop Makarios. This split,
plus delays and disruption resulting from the crash of the Turk-
ish prime minister's plane, has caused a serious loss of mo-
mentum in the talks which opposition elements in all areas will
probably attempt to exploit. A formal break between Karaman-
lis and Makarios would cause Karamanlis serious political dif-
ficulty in Greece.j (Page 4)
Watch Committee conclusion--Middle East: Situations
susceptible of direct exploitation by Sino-Soviet hostile action
which would jeopardize US interests exist in the Middle East,
particularly in Iran and Iraq. The situation in the area remains
precarious, but a deliberate initiation of large-scale hostilities
is unlikely in the immediate future.
Iran: Current tensions between Iran and the USSR can be
expected to continue and, with the signing of the Iranian-US bi-
lateral agreement, to increase to a point short of direct mil-
itary action
Morocco: acing Mohamed V plans to be away from Morocco
from 20 February through 5 March. He will visit Corsica and
Madagascar. At a time when the country is embroiled in a po
litical contest between factions of the ruling Istiqlal party, his
absence will invite more instability.1
(Page 5)
19 Feb 59
DAILY BRIEF
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Guinea - Soviet bloc: Guinea appears to be responding
to the Soviet bloc's campaign to establish diplomatic, eco-
nomic, and cultural ties with the independent states of West
Africa. Sekou Tour's government signed a trade and pay-
ments agreement with a visiting Soviet trade mission on 13
February, and is in the process of concluding new arrange-.
ments with several Eastern European satellites. A Bulgarian
ambassador has reportedly already presented his credentials
in Conakry. (Page ,6)
Cambodia: [-Stringent security measures have been im-
posed by disaffected General Dap Chhuon at his headquarters
in Siem Reap, and similar defensive precautions are being
taken by the Sihanouk government in the Phnom Penh area.
Meanwhile, accusations by South Vietnam of border raids by
Cambodian troops may be groundwork for Vietnamese diver
ionary action along the frontier intended to coincide with
hhuons internal move against Sihanouk, which had been ten-
atively set for mid-March. Chhuon, however, apparently
still hopes to avoid bloodshed by reaching a peaceful solution
with Sihanouk which would curtail Communist influence in
Cambodia] Page 7)
19 Feb 59 DAILY BRIEF iii 0
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J
Niro o' Nri
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Khrushchev Defies West on Berlin
Khrushchev's speech at Tula on 17 February underscored
Moscow's current efforts to confront the Western powers with
a choice between risking war to enforce their right of access
to Berlin or making concessions which would erode their posi-
tion on Berlin and German reunification. The Soviet premier
adopted a defiant attitude toward the West's intention, reaf-
firmed in the notes of 16 February, to "uphold by all appro-
priate means" its communications with Berlin.
Khrushchev said Soviet troops in East Germany are not
there to play games and repeated previous public Soviet warn-
ings that "if anybody should start shooting, this would mean the
beginning of war." I
Khrushchev also sought to discourage any belief that West-
ern access to Berlin could be maintained by an airlift if the
land routes are closed. He asserted that East Germany would
obtain full sovereignty by the conclusion of a peace treaty and
would vigorously rebuff any encroachment on its territory by land,
air, or water. This formulation seems to imply that a separate
treaty might be speedily concluded either prior to or simultane-
ous with the transfer of access controls to the East Germans.
Khrushchey's tough line on negotiations with the West sug-
gests that if the West rejects the Soviet proposals regarding
Berlin and a peace treaty signed by both German governments,
the USSR will promptly carry out its announced intention to
transfer the controls and sign a separate treaty with East Ger-
many. He ridiculed the Western formula of "no concessions
without counterconcessions" and said, "We...have nothing to
concede. We made our proposals without bargaining."
Moscow's apparent belief that its threatening posture on
Berlin will force the West to move toward at least de facto
recognition of East Germany was reflected in Khrushchey's
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favorable reference to Senator Mansfield's proposal for direct
negotiations between the two German governments on unifica-
tion of both Berlin and Germany.
Khrushchev concluded his speech with a sharp attack on the
Shah of Iran for breaking off his negotiations on a nonaggression
pact with the USSR. His statement that the USSR will "see to it
that the people of Iran understand our attitude correctly" prob-
ably foreshadows an intensified Soviet propaganda campaign
aimed at discrediting the Shah's regime.
19 Feb 59
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5LC:
JAEIC Statement of 17 February 1959
military delegation which visited the Soviet
Union last November was informed by General of the Army
M. M. Popov that the Soviet Army possessed five types of
nuclear weapons: a two-kiloton artillery shell, a five-kilo-
ton rocket projectile for close support, and bombs yielding
10, 20, and 50 kilotons for tactical employment by Soviet
TacticalAir Force units equipped with the TU46-.\
elle Long Range Air Force was said to have a thermo-
nuclear weapon "in the megaton range" in addition to smaller
bombs. The delegation inferred that their hosts had
been instructed to make the visit worthwhile without disclos-
ing any classified or order-of-battle information.7
[-During a visit to the Soviet Union in July 1957,
the firing by e o-
viet Army of two half-kiloton nuclear artillery shells. An
Austrian military delegation visited the Soviet Union in Octo-
ber. These invitations to foreign military observers indicate
a Soviet campaign to impress neutral nations with the nuclear
capabilities of Soviet military forces..-c
Elle possession of nuclear artillery shells is estimated
to be well within the capability of the Soviet Union. No tests
of such devices have been identified in the nine-year history
of the Soviet weapons testing program, but such low-yield
tests could well have escaped detection. The yields of the
fission weapons described to the Swedes probably did not in-
clude all those available to the Soviet military forces, and the
Soviet thermonuclear stockpile certainly contains a selection
of yields ranging from approximately 200 kilotons to eight meg-
atons. The delegation was given no information on the
availability ns for air defense or other applica-
tions:1
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voie II, ASIA AFRICA
Cyprus Situation
{An emergency meeting at the foreign ministers' level
was called in London on the evening of 18 February to pre-
vent the threatened collapse of the conference seeking agree-
ment on the terms for an independent Cyprus. The urgent
meeting follows reports that Archbishop Makarios has broken
with the Greek Government and no longer accepts the Cyprus
agreement reached between Athens and Ankara on 11 Febru-
ary. The future of the conference now depends on Makarios,
as Britain, Greece, Turkey, and the Turkish Cypriots have
agreed on the terms for a settlement. Failure to secure the
archbishop's approval would eliminate hope for a solution at
present and could lead to a renewal of the struggle on Cyprus.
The possibility cannot be precluded that Makarios is maneuver-
ing for further concessions, which would also enhance his polit-
ical stature in both Cyprus and Greece-3
ElVlakarios' opposition to the agreement appears concentrated
on the terms providing for British base rights on Cyprus, and
the right of Britain, Greece, and Turkey to intervene if Cypriot
independence is threatened. There may also be problems in
London regarding the timing and method of execution of the
agreement, the degree of Turkish Cypriot participation in the
government, and the question of whether or not Cyprus will re-
main within the British Commonwealth. Makarios' advisers re-
portedly are pressuring the archbishop to submit any plan for
Cyprus' future to a plebiscite on the island.-/
If the London conference fails to achieve a settlement of
the Cyprus issue because of Makarios' objections, an open
break between the Greek Government and the Cypriot Ethnarchy
is virtually certain. Karamanlis recently stated that regardless
of the results in London, Greece intends to maintain cordial rela-
tions with Turkey, will order the return of the Greek NATO contin-
gent withdrawn from Izmir last rune, and will announce withdrawal
of further support for the Greek Cypriot cause
CA final break between Karamanlis and Makarios would have
serious consequences on the Greek political scene, with both
Communist and nationalist opposition parties demanding the gov-
ernment's resignation. Karamanlis' ability to survive would de-
pend on the loyalty of the members of his own party in the Chamber
of Deputies, where he enjoys a small majoritiTT
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Mofoccank-King May Revisit Corsica and Madagascar
king Mohamed V plans to leave Morocco on 20 February
for a 12-day visit to Corsica and Madagascar. The King has
long planned a "sentimental journey" to Madagascar, where he
was imprisoned by France during the greater part of his 26-
month exile in 1953-1955. At a time when the country is em-
broiled in a bitter political contest between factions of the
ruling Istiqlal party and tribal disorders in north and central
Morocco have not been quelled, his absence will invite more
instability:\
[-Unless the situation worsens drastically, the King prob-
ably will proceed with the trip, returning before the month-
long Moslem fast of Ramadan beginning about 11 March. As
during other royal absences from the country, the crown prince
probably will remain in Morocco to serve as regent. Because
he became embroiled in difficulties on the two earlier occa-
sions when he was regent--a tribal uprising two years ago
and the opening of the offensive by Moroccan irregulars against
the Spanish enclave of Ifni in western Morocco in November 1957--
his authority may this time be drastically curtailed.:IS
King hopes
De Gaulle will invite him to stop in Paris on his return trom
Madagascar. Such an invitation, in the King's view, would pro-
vide an excellent opportunity for the two leaders, together with
President Bourguiba of Tunisia who has publicly expressed a
wish for consultations with De Gaulle. to discuss a solution of
the Algerian rebellion:
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Guinea Increasing Ties With Soviet Bloc
Guinea appears to be responding favorably to Soviet bloc ef-
forts to expand diplomatic, economic, and cultural relations
with independent states of West Africa.
Guinea was recognized by most Communist regimes soon
after it became independent last October. Its first direct con-
tact with the bloc was a trade and cultural accord last fall with
East Germany. This was followed by a "general protocol" with
Czechoslovakia envisaging trade relations and "economic and
scientific technical cooperation"--terminology which has in the
past sometimes meant the extension of bloc credits.
More recently Guinea received a commercial delegation
from Poland and signed a formal trade and payments agree-
ments with the USSR on 13 February which provides for an
exchange of coffee, bananas, and other agricultural products
for Soviet-manufactured and -processed goods.
Meanwhile, a Guinea delegation, including leftist Interior
Minister Keita, has been accorded red-carpet treatment in East
Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Poland this month. In East Ber-
lin, the visiting Africans discussed implementation of the trade
and cultural agreement and were promised a new gift radio
transmitter. In Prague, where they were received by Pres-
ident Novotny, they apparently agreed to an exchange of diplo-
matic representatives in the "immediate future" and also to
the establishment in Conakry of a permanent Czech trade del-
egation.
A Bulgarian ambassador who arrived in Conakry late in
January apparently was the first chief of mission to present his
credentials and may thus be dean of the local diplomatic corps.
CONFI DEN TEAL
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Showdown May Be Near in Cambodia
The break between Premier Sihanouk and General Dap
Chhuon, disaffected military commander in northwestern
Cambodia, is causing increased security precautions on both
sides. Chhuon, who is readying a move against Sihanouk with
the active support of South Vietnam, has established check-
points around his headquarters at Siem Reap and is no longer
permitting visits by government officials without prior clear-
ance. These moves parallel security measures already taken
in the Phnom Penh area on orders from Sihanouk, who is un-
sure of Chhuon's strength. Chhuon apparently still favors a
peaceful compromise solution with Sihanouk to avoid bloodshed,
but their divergent views on the Communist threat to Cambodia
militates against this
CA key question is the attitude of General Lon Nol, oppor-
tunistic chief of staff of the Cambodian armed forces. In addi-
tion to this assignment, Lon Nol has been named defense min-
ister in Sihanouk's reshuffle of his cabinet on 18 February. The
cabinet changes apparently are part of Sihanouk's spreading
witch hunt against officials suspected either of collusion with
antigovernment elementS or of being too inept to cope with the
"present delicate situation.-1
n accusing Cambodia of border raids, South Vietnam may
be tying the ground for some diversionary action along the
frontier to coincide with Chhuon's internal move, tentatively
set for mid-March. There has also been some evidence of
sabotage and terrorist acts in Cambodia, intended to create
confusion preceding the coup. Reports have been received of
a rash of kidnapings and holdups in the countryside, as well as
expert sabotage of construction equipment on the new highway
from Kompong Som Bay to Phnom Penli3,
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THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
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