CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/02/18

Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
03149173
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
6
Document Creation Date: 
September 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
September 26, 2019
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
February 18, 1955
File: 
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15722735].pdf211.71 KB
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,Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173, 1/ 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) 18 February 1955 Copy No. SS CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. g NO CHANGE IN CLASS. El DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO; T$ $ C NEXT REVIEW DATE: .-c) t 0 HR 70-2 DATE. 13 Z;IN gO REVIEWER Office of Current Intelligence CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 'TO 'CRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 r.t.sirt Pr" Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 'vise SUMMARY FAR EAST 1. Democrats confident they will form next Japanese government (page 3). SOUTHEAST ASIA 2. Thailand to assist Burmese operations against Chinese Nationalist guerrillas (page 3). 3. Coup against Diem government reported imminent (page 4). NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Iraq and Turkey seem agreed on draft of defense treaty (page 5). 5. Struggle for control of Syria may enter military phase (page 5). 6. Serious incident on Jordan-Israel border may be imminent (page 6). * * * * 18 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 " rt fro, ir Approvel e rr Por Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 Tall..XrPrgrT Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 vim* FAR EAST 1. Democrats confident they will form next Japanese government: Shinsuke Kishi, secretary general of the Japan Democratic Party, told Ambassador Allison on 16 February that it is now virtually certain his party e re urn a plurality in the 27 February elections and will form a new government under Hatoyama. Kishi foresees a large-scale reshuffle in the.cabinet, but thinks that Shigemitsu will remain as foreign minister. Kishi also stated that Prime Minister Hatoyama had been persuaded to entrust the coming negotiations with the USSR entirely to Shigeinitsu, and to cease "freewheeling" on his own. Kishi said that in negotiations with the USSR, Japan would not accept conditions which might adversely affect its rela- tions with the United States. Comment: Despite ICishi's confidence that Shigemitsu will continue as i4eign minister, there have been other reports which indicate considerable opposition to this within the present cabinet. Since the Moscow radio broadcast of 14 December, the USSR has continued to assure the Japanese that normalization of relations does not require Japan to sever Its relations with the United States. In its present drive for better relations with the Orbit, Japan is likely to take an un- critical view as to what might adversely affect relations with the United States, but is not likely to overlook the overriding impor- tance of maintaining its basic pro-American policy. SOUTHEAST ASIA 2. Thailand to assist Burmese operations against Chinese Nationalist guerrillas: 18 Feb 55 Police Director Phao has committed Thai- land to support a Burmese army offensive against remnants of the Chinese Nationalist forces in northeastern Burma, according CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 TOPSECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 64s rt Pry Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 to the American embassy in Bangkok. The offensive is reportedly scheduled to begin on 5 March. Thailand's assistance is to be rendered through joint Thai-Burmese liaison teams stationed at critical points in the theater of operations and at the Thai police headquarters in Bangkok. Ambassador Peurifoy warns that fight- ing might break out between retreating Chinese Nationalists and Thai police forces unless the Chinese surrender promptly on crossing the border. Should there be a large number of internees, Thailand may request reactivation of the joint military committee which last year handled the evacuation of 7,000 Chinese National- ists to Formosa. Comment: Phao held a low opinion of the Burmese government heretofore and to have aided various non-Communist dissidents in Burma, includ- ing the Chinese Nationalists. The action he has now taken, however, indicates that he has revised his attitude, and this should materially enhance Thai-Burmese relations. There are estimated to be 6,000 Chinese Nationalists, concentrated largely along the Thai border, remain- ing in Burma. While they are no match for the Burmese army, the terrain is admirably suited for evasive tactics, which the Chi- nese have been using successfully in the last two years. 3. Coup against Diem government reported imminent: Diem's efforts to strengthen his govern- ment have created a great deal of resentment and tended to unify 18 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 'Tr% n ri Pry Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 Pr ID r Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 the disparate elements opposed to him. In the final analysis, however, a successful coup would depend on the degree of French support. NEAR EAST - AFRICA 4. Iraq and Turkey seem agreed on draft of defense treaty: Secretary General Birgi of the Turkish Foreign Ministry considers that Iraq's "final" draft of the proposed Iraqi- Turkish defense pact is "satisfactory ough far from ideal.Birgi also told Ambassador Warren on 16 February that he hoped to obtain Turkish prime minister Menderes' acceptance of the draft immediately in order to ar- range for signature of the treaty "in the next few days." Comment: The Iraqi draft does not meet Turkish desires for prOvfsions for specific measures to meet aggression. The draft does provide, however, that "the competent authorities" of the two countries may conclude, after the treaty comes into effect, whatever "special agreements" are considered necessary to ensure the "security and defense" of Iraq and Turkey. 5. Struggle for control of Syria may enter military phase: Iraq has advised pro-Western president Atasi of Syria that it is ready to help "in any way possible" to counteract Egyptian, Saudi Arabian and French machinations in Syria. 18 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE'sBULLETIN Page 5 TOP ET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 rr(DlrflFF Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173 Nose Comment�, Syria's pro-Western con- servatives, apparently convinced that the country is being under- mined by foreign intrigue which would give control to the Com- munists, seem ready to call on military leaders to take over. Ankara and Baghdad, which view the developments in Syria as inimical to their plans for Middle East defense, appear ready to give even military support to the Syrian conservatives. Such support would probably be interpreted through- out the Middle East as an effort to effect an Iraqi-Syrian union. 6. Serious incident on Jordan-Israel border may be imminent! Tension is mounting on the Jordan-Israel border as a result of a series of provoca- tive raids by Israeli military forces now on maneuvers. The American army attach� in Amman believes there may be a serious ncictent un ess the Israeli maneuvers close to the border are stopped. Comment! The Israeli press in past weeks has been directing popular attention to Arab-Israeli problems, spe- cifically the Cairo spy trial, the detention of five Israeli soldiers in Syria, and the prospects of Arab participation in Western defense arrangements for the area. In addition, Israeli army spokesmen have been bitter and outspoken over these recent developments. 18 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 TOPIZCRFT Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03149173