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October 25, 2019
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October 31, 2019
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October 16, 1956
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15742023].pdf354.27 KB
Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 CO3150401_ >07. , rr4/4317/07. opeeA r�r);,7" iffr:///4 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 16 October 1956 Copy No. 2 DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. E] DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS $ C NEXT REVIEW DATE: --Self-? 70-54 DATV REVIEWER OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY TOP SECRET e; 194/ 07' Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 003150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 *Noe' Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Nive3L..IL ANor' CONTENTS 1. IRAQI TROOP MOVEMENT INTO JORDAN POSTPONED (page 3). . M LKA MAY APPROACH UNITED STATES FOR LOAN (page 4). 3. CHOU EN-LAI PROTEST ON HONG KONG RIOTS (page 5). 4. POLITICAL CRISIS IN CAMBODIA (page 6). 5. HUNGARIAN 7X- PREMIER NAGY READMITTED TO PARTY (page 7). 6, AUSTRIAN SOCIALISTS DOUBT THEY CAN BLOCK ACCEPT- ANCE OF SOVIET LOAN (page 8). 16 Oct 56 * * * * THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (page 9) Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Nee Nu, 1. IRAQI TROOP MOVEMENT INTO JORDAN POSTPONED The move of Iraqi troops into Jordan scheduled for 15 October has been de- layed, according to Iraqi prime minis- ter Nun i Said. A new date for the entry will depend on the outcome of Iraqi-Jordanian talks which began in Amman on 14 October. Nun i told Ambassador Gallman that the move had not been abandoned but post- poned because of the sharp Israeli reaction and Iraq's de- sire to obtain a "written request" from Jordan. Comment The postponement is probably due mainly to the uncertainty in Iraq caused by the strong Israeli reaction. Iraq is probably also encountering difficulties with Jordanian officials as to the size of the force, command responsibilities and duration of stay. Jordan is under pressure from other Arab states who fear predominant Iraqi influence. Despite British assurances that the Anglo-Jordanian treaty would be honored if Israel used the entry of Iraqi troops to attack Jordan, Jordan p.nd Iraq probably have doubts as to the ex- tent of British support should an outbreak occur. A usually reliable source has told the American army attach�n Baghdad that Iraqi army recon- naissance of supply points inside Jordan has been completed and the movement of supplies forward has begun. 16 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 ITLLtdzJ 2. GOMULKA MAY APPROACH UNITED STATES FOR LOAN e Belgian iiinster to Poland claims to have accurate information that Wladyslaw Gomulka will be named vice premier and politburo member at the centralcommittee plenum now scheduled to meet 18 Octo- ber and that he is considering requesting large-scale as- sistance from the United States. The American ambassa- dor comments that the Belgian minister seems to have close friends in the Polish hierarchy and his story may be a regime-inspired trial balloon. According to this report, Gomulka has prepared a new economic plan--which the regime will ac- cept--calling for large sums for modernizing Polish indus- try and purchasing raw materials. The Poles have report- edly been told by the USSR that it cannot give any additional aid, and that the Russians therefore approve Gomulka's plan. Comment The resignation of Hilary Minc from the politburo and as first deputy premier last week set the stage for Gomulka's return to office. Several Polish officials, in informal con- versations with Westerners, have stressed their belief that only American aid could improve the Polish economy. In addition, a prominent Polish editor re- cently called for a re-evaluation of the effect of the Marshall Plan, and concluded that anyone who looked at the booming economy of Western Europe today could see that the Commu- nists had been wrong when they claimed the plan would bring about industrial regression and impoverishment of the masses. This is the first public praise of the Marshall Plan from a Soviet bloc country. 16 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 327efiET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Neor 3. CHOU EN-LAI PROTEST ON HONG KONG RIOTS Comment on: Premier Chou En-lai's statement to Western newsmen on 14 October that Communist China could not "permit" such disorders as the Hong Kong riots to take place on its doorstep reflects Peiping's sensitivity to the anti-Commu- nist aspects of the riots. Continued diplomatic pressure from Peiping, how- ever, seems certain in view of the offi- cial Chinese protest to the British, which reserved the right to make "further demands" on the matter. In his formal note of protest delivered to British charg�'affaires O'Neill in Peiping on 13 October, Chou En-lai expressed Communist China's "indignation and concern" over the riots. He blamed Chinese Nationalist agents for inspiring the violence and accused the Hong Kong government of failure to provide adequate protection for the colony's two million Chinese residents, The Chinese Communists will probably renew their efforts to obtain official representation in the colony and a more intensive covert infiltration of the Hong Kong Chinese community. 16 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 5 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 New CONFIDENTIAL Nov 4. POLITICAL CRISIS IN CAMBODIA Comment on: Prince Sihanouk's resignation as premier for the third time this year may leave Cambodia without leadership for some time. Although Sihanouk announced he was quit- mg ecause o a igue" and "budgetary difficulties," the real reason is undoubtedly conflict with the two "strong men" in his cabinet, Defense Minister Prince Monireth and Minister of Internal Security Dap Chhuon. Sihanouk is said to be par- ticularly opposed to stiff measures against corruption de- sired by these men. Cambodia's economic and political sta- bility has suffered severely during 1956 as a result of four changes in government, none of which provided effective ad- ministration. This instability has been aggravated by Sihanouk's controversial neutralist policy. In view of the pressing need for strong gov- ernment, it is possible that Sihanouk's present cabinet, one of Cambodia's ablest, may be retained with a new premier. Si- hanouk, however, has the resignation of all cabinet members "in his pocket," which may indicate that he intends to rule again by appointing a figurehead. Unless a strong leader, such as Monireth or Dap Chhuon, takes over, this would mean another caretaker government in which capable men would be loath to serve. 16 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 (A (1/ Iiiiitifk"tbi-h- Nope 5. HUNGARIAN EX-PREMIER NAGY READMITTED TO PARTY Comment on: The readmission to the Hungarian party of Yugoslav-supported ex-premier Imre Nagy, announced on 14 October, paves the way for the formation of a more moderate Hungarian government at the 29 October special National Assembly meeting. Nagy may be appointed to an influential position, possibly the head of the Patriotic Peo- ple's Front. A number of Nagy's policies have already been partially or completely accepted by the current leadership. Before his reinstatement� Nagy apparently reached a limited compromise with the regime. He stated in a letter to the central committee on 4 October that he was willing to abide by the decisions of the party, but pointed out his continued disagreement with some of its current policies. He also admitted that he made some mistakes, but said that he is unwilling to discuss these until such time as the regime permits a full and public discussion of his ouster. Nagy's return to the party coincides with the departure on 14 October of Hungarian leaders for Bel- grade to hold talks with Yugoslav leaders. On the same day, the Hungarian press hailed Yugoslavia's "unswerving progress" in building socialism and national independence, and initiated an active anti-Rakosi campaign, condemning the former leader for "disgracing the cause of socialism!' 16 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 WiNi41DLtatarirE 110' 6, AUSTRIAN SOCIALISTS DOUBT THEY CAN BLOCK ACCEPTANCE OF SOVIET LOAN Austrian Socialists feel they will be unable to prevent acceptance of a Soviet loan which First Deputy Premier Mikoyan may offer when he arrives in Austria on er, the Socialist parliamentary leader informed Ambassador Thompson on 12 October. The Soviet embassy in Vienna is trying to influence the conservative People's Party as well as the Socialists--the two parties comprising the coalition gov- ernment--to accept a loan to modernize Vienna's public trans- portation system, including the construction of a subway, and to assist the industrial complex formerly controlled by the USSR. Comment Last year a Soviet proposal for a sub- stantial loan to the Lower Austrian provincial government, where most of the formerly. Soviet- controlled industries are located, was turned down largely as a result of Socialist efforts. The Socialists are now in a poor position to block Soviet loan offers since they lost ground to the People's Party in the May national election. The People's Party now controls the Austrian parliament. 16 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 SECRET- THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (Information as of 1700, 15 October) An Israeli military patrol on 14 October was reported to have killed two Egyptian guerrillas and cap- tured two others near the central Negev settlement of Sde B-oker, occasional residence of Prime Minister Ben-GuriorL (Press) Jordan on 15 October formally asked for a meeting of the UN Security Council "as soon as possible" to consider the "most serious situation" created by the Israeli as- sault on Jordanian positions at Qalqiliya on 10 October. The council is expected to meet on 18 October to consider the com- plaint. (Press) In a new warning aimed at Britain, the Israeli Foreign Ministry declared "whoever encourages or abets Iraq, actively or passively, in the realization of its schemes takes upon himself a grave responsibility." British efforts to al- lay Israeli suspicions over the proposed movement of Iraqi troops into Jordan have thus far been unavailing. (Press) The British ambassador in Jordan has in- formed the American ambassador that King Hussain requested British air support during the 10 October Israeli attack on Qalqiliya. The Jordanian request was relayed to London and no further action taken. Next day, however, the RAF squadron in Jordan conducted demonstration patrols east of the Jordan River, after which King Hussain protested because the patrols were not extended over West Jordan. The British ambassador has suggested that the RAF un- dertake some air activity along the Jordanian-Israeli border as a demonstration of British interest. According to the acting chief of Israeli intel- ligence, Colonel Neeman, the morale and esprit ,of Jordanian troops engaged in the Qalqiliya action on 10 October were excel- lent. Israeli forces received the impression that Jordanian troops had overcome their fear of night fighting--long a major weakness of Arab forces. As a result of talks with Colonel Ne'eman, the 16 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401 Nate SECRET Now American army attach�n Tel Aviv believes that the attack was not a complete success for the Israelis and that casualties must have been substantially greater than admitted by the government., The Israeli high command, according to Colonel Neeman, is aware that a planning team has been prepar- ing plans for the possible introduction of Syrian forces into northern Jordan in the area adjacent to Lake Tiberias. Any multilateral Arab military intervention in Jordan would create very strong pressures in Israel or a military response. Although the Qalqiliya raid offers a new ex- cuse to cancel the Jordan lower house elections, King Hussain and the cabinet are reported still determined to proceed with the voting. The recent Israeli raids have strengthened the support of the pro-Egyptian extremists, and weakened the chances of mod- erate or pro-Western candidates. If the elections are held as planned, Hussain is probably counting on the presence of Iraqi troops to support government efforts to limit ultranationalist gai (For another report dealing with the Arab- Israeli situation, see item 1, Po 3. ) 10 Oct 51' Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 10 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03150401