CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/10/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03153729
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: October 8, 1957

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8 October 1957
Copy No. 38
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
/72
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DOCUMENT NO. 1
NO CHANGE iN CLASS. X
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CA FE: 42ED-1-00
AUTH: "
REVEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Tor SECRET
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CONTENTS
0-12,- 1. E SITUATION IN WARSAW
OLL 2. CHINESE COMMUNISTS
SATELLITE LAUNCHING
(page 3).
(page 4).
it.�0 3. LIBYA'S PRO-WESTERN ORTENTATION STRAINED
BY FRENCH ATTACKS (page 5).
(94, 4. REACTION IN ALGE FEAT OF PROPOSED,
ALGERIAN STATUTE (page 6).
5. RIGHTISTS MAY ATTEMPT PRE-ELECTION COUP
IN GUATEMALA (page 7).
6. BURMA CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL SOVIET
AGRICULTURAL ASSISTANCE
(page 8).
7. BREACH WIDENING BETWEEN INDONESIAN
DISSIDENT LEADERS AND DJAKARTA
(page 9).
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1. THE SITUATION IN WARSAW
Reference:
The Polish regime has succeeded
in maintaining control of the situa-
tion in Warsaw and preventing any
spread of the disturbances while
conceding nothing to the students'
demands. The students have not
been involved in rioting since 4 Oc-
tober, and a student statement cir-
culated on 6 October denied that
they had intended to resort to violence. Cardinal
Wyszynski's annual academic year sermon on Sunday
advocating moderation has also helped to restore some
degree of patience.
The students failed to gain the support
of factory workers, notably at the Zeran automobile works.
Townspeople on the morning of 7 October were reportedly
expressing their disgust with the wildcat disturbances. There
has been little of the panic buying which normally accompanies
public expectations of serious disturbances.
Neither the Polish nor Soviet military
forces have apparently been alerted. Polish military lead-
ers discussing the situation with US officials at a week-end
diplomatic party without exception expressed their lack of
concern, pointing out their confidence in the militia's� ability
to handle the situation and their feeling that the "students had
now had their fun."
The students, however, still demand the
reopening of Po Prostu, the release of those arrested, and
the punishment of officials responsible for calling in the mi-
litia. If the regime fails to meet any of these demands, or
resorts to harsh punishment and press censorship during the
week, tempers may again be inflamed and further student
demonstrations could result. Despite surface calm, the re-
gime has refused to permit the Polytechnical University to
open since 4 October.
8 Oct 57
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2. CHINESE COMMUNIST REACTION TO
SATELLITE LAUNCHING
Comment on:
Peiping's initial reaction to the success-
ful launching of the Soviet satellite hails
the achievement as "proof" of the "in-
comparable superiority" of the socialist
system. This may be the beginning of a
major Chinese propaganda campaign.
Unlike Soviet commentary, which thus far
has emphasized the scientific achievements and what the USSR
considers to be the political implications of the launching, the
Chinese Communists were quick to seize on the military sig-
nificance of the satellite by linking it to Soviet development
of the ICBM. Declaring that the United States can no longer
lay claim to being th3 most powerful nation on earth, an edi-
torial of 6 October in an authoritative newspaper stated that
Soviet missile successes have shattered all American "hopes
for world hegemony."
Peiping first began asserting last May
that the United States "lagged behind" the USSR in missile
development, and has given wide publicity to reported
"failures" in US missile testing in recent months. The
Chinese have emphasized previously that Soviet successes
should induce the West to agree to Soviet conditions for a
disarmament agreement,
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3. LIBYA'S PRO-WESTERN ORIENTATION STRAINED
BY FRENCH ATTACKS
Comment on:
The generally pro-Western Libyan gov-
ernment is likely to come under increas-
ing pressure from elements which are us-
ing the Franco-Libyan frontier incident
of last week to arouse opinion against the
West in general and France in particular.
Speakers participating in an anti-Western
demonstration in Bengazi on 6 October have
demanded abrogation of the Franco- Libyan
treaty of friendship and a reconsideration
of base agreements and treaties with the
United States and Great Britain. The demon-
stration�.followed the Libyan government's announcement of the
details of a French attack on 3 October directed against a Libyan
village near the Algerian border. The government has denounced
the French "aggression" and requested assistance from the Brit-
ish under the Anglo-Libyan treaty of 1953. Before the incident,
Libyan government officials, who had already indicated they hoped
to renegotiate the American-Libyan base agreement, had asked
for a quick shipment of American military supplies.
In Paris, the American embassy has been in-
formed that the French took action only after being attacked by
"unidentified elements" near the "ill-defined" border. The French
government reportedly believes that such incidents may continue
to occur unless a better demarcation is made.
The American embassy in London reports that
the Foreign Office is "much concerned" and considers the French
attack to have been even if French allegations
that Algerian rebels are operating from that area are true. The
British reportedly hope to avoid the necessity of complying with
the Libyan request for assistance by persuading the French to with-
draw any forces which may still be in Libyan territory.
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4. REACTION IN ALGERIA TO DEFEAT OF PROPOSED
ALGERIAN STATUTE
Comment on:
French eitorts to promote pacifica-
tion and reconciliation in Algeria
appear to have been set back serious-
ly as a result of the National Assem- .
bly's defeat last week of the proposed
basic law for Algeria.
The assembly's action has reportedly
driven nationalist Mohamed Belounis,
a field commander of the Algerian National Movement
with whom the French had been negotiating an "alliance"
since July, into active opposition again. Belounis had
apparently endorsed an early version of the statute in re-
turn for assurance that he would receive an important posi-
tion in the new Algerian regime. He is now said to have
broken with the French and withdrawn, in French trucks
and with 250 French-equipped followers, to the hills of
north central Algeria.
The National Liberation Front (FLN),
the dominant nationalist organization, reportedly is highly
gratified by the adverse vote in Paris, believing it has
greatly improved the FLINI's position in the forthcoming UN
debate on Algeria. There is no indication as yet, however,
that the FLN intends to exploit the fall of the Bourges-
Maunoury government by stepping up terrorism in Algeria
as it did at the time of the last government crisis in Paris.
European extremist groups in Algeria,
which opposed the reforms as an inadmissible first step
toward eventual "abandonment," have also expressed satis-
faction over the turn of events in Paris. Veterans' and stu-
dents' organizations see the government crisis as providing
an opportunity for "determined men" to assume leadership
of a "movement of national revival."
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5. RIGHTISTS MAY ATTEMPT PRE-ELECTION
COUP IN GUATEMALA
Continuation of the middle-of-the-road
policies established by the late presi-
dent Castillo Armas in Guatemala is
threatened by plotting-on both the right
and the left aimed at preventing or annulling the 20 October
election of a full-term successor to Castillo. The adminis-
tration presidential candidate, pro-American former Supreme
Cburt president Miguel Ortiz Passarelli, appears assured of
victory if the elections are held as scheduled.
Extreme rightists, who have been working
closely with agents of Generalissimo Trujillo of the Dominican
Republic, and certain army officers who resent the dominant
position of the powerful defense ministe , Col. Juan F. Oliva,
have been reported to be planning to seize
the government shortly before election cay.
Leftists, who have been denied participation
in the election by the recent proscription of the Communist-in-
filtrated Revolutionary party, are also plotting revolution. Prom-
inent exiles who have reportedly returned clandestinely to Guate-
mala and other leftists are believed seeking support for a revolt
among army and police officers. Although the leftists and pro-
Communists are weak and poorly organized, they are capable of
causing disturbances among politically volatile students.
Any leftist-inspired disorders might provide
a pretext for a rightist coup.
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6. BURMA CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL SOVIET
SISTANCE
The Burmese government reportedly
is considering a Soviet offer of a loan
of just under $10, 000, 000 to permit
the acceleration of high-priority agri-
cu ura projects. The loan, which would enable Burma
to hire 43 additional Soviet technicians and enlarge the
existing joint agricultural program, would expand the most
successful phase of the USSR's economic aid activity in
Burma to date.
The Burmese government wants the
American economic aid mission to approve financing of a
large-scale land reclamation project already in progress
in the Irrawaddy Delta under the recent $25, 000, 000 loan
from the United States. The Russians allegedly are anxious
to step in with the required funds for this project because of
its propaganda potential.
of great significance and
potentiality for expanding rice production and promoting so-
cial welfare. While rice earns 70 percent of Burma's foreign
exchange, rice exports are still only about two thirds of pre-
war leVels.
Meanwhile, in other spheres of the So-
viet assistance program, 50 engineers and construction ex-
perts are reportedly now in Rangoon to begin on schedule
work on the technological institute and other buildings. In
addition, 12 Soviet planning experts now are in Rangoon fol-
lowing up a previous proposal for the construction of cheap
concrete housing units.
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7. BREACH WIDENING BETWEEN INDONESIAN
DISSIDENT LEADERS AND DJAKARTA
Reference:
inaeonesiars dissident provincial corn-
manders not only are continuing to
perfect their plans for united opposi-
tion to the central government, but
reported to be in general
agreement that President Sukarno "will
have to go." They are also increasingly
disillusioned with the idea of relying
heavily on Hatta's leadership for their cause, because of his
"clumsy" performance at last month's round-table conference
in Djakarta.
The planning of the disaffected commanders
calls for CoL Simbolon to regain control of North Sumatra and
assume command of the whole island. Former chief of staff
Col. Lubis is to direct activities in Java, and Lt. CoL Sumual
is to establish his command over all of East Indonesia.
The provincial dissidents continue to count
heavily on economic pressure to achieve their aims, and one
source estimates that Djakarta could be brought to terms within
four to six months by such pressure. They are aware, however,
the central government will probably retaliate with economic
countermeasures such as a tightened blockade. They also know
that Djakarta is building up an underground movement which can,
on short notice, move against the local authorities.
In the Medan area of North Sumatra, the Com-
munist-led "village defense corps" has been reported fighting
police and army units. This would seem to be a reaction to the
recent arrest of Lt. Col. Macmour, a pro-Communist re imental
commander who provided the corps with its arms.
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