CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/02/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03157418
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: February 22, 1955

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22 February 1955
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
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NEXT REVIEW DATE: OJ
AUTH. HR 70-2
DATE. 3741,10 Kvt5yvot.
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Alteration of Soviet-Hungarian trade relations reported (page 3).
2. Balkan alliance foreign ministers to meet in Ankara (page 3).
3.
FAR EAST
4. Conservative victory predicted in Japanese general elections
(page 5).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Crown prince indicates Laotian desire to join Manila pact (page 5).
6. Cambodian king proposes drastic constitutional revisions (page 6).
7. Burmese noncommittal regarding offer of American arms (page 7).
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GENERAL
1. Alteration of Soviet-Hungarian trade relations reported:
The American legation in Budapest has
received a number of reports from re-
liable diplomatic and local sources of
a significant change in Soviet-Hungarian
trade relations. These reports, which
egan about the time Mikoyan was removed as minister of in-
ternal trade, claim that there has been a slackening of Soviet
shipments to Hungary and a cessation of Hungarian exports of
some products to the USSR, and that some Hungarian factory of-
ficials are worried over a lack of orders.
Comment: Soviet-Hungarian trade
relations are probably in a state of flux as a result of the recent
shift in Soviet domestic economic policy, which has undoubtedly
caused the USSR to re-examine its trade polic.y inside the bloc as
well as toward Western nations.
While no dramatic change in Soviet trade
relations with the Satellites is likely, the level of trade probably
will not rise as fast as it has in recent years, and the USSR will
be less willing to import foodstuffs and consumers' goods.
A Hungarian trade delegation is now in
Moscow drawing up the 1955 agreement. Hungarian officials are
probably reluctant to make new commitments until new policy
directives are issued by Moscow.
2. Balkan alliance foreign ministers to meet in Ankara:
The foreign ministers of Turkey, Greece,
and Yugoslavia, meeting in Ankara on
28 February, will consider the following
three-point agenda: (1) the international
situation, including the normalization of relations with East Euro-
pean Satellites; (2) the further development of the Balkan alliance,
possibly including Balkan-NATO military co-ordination; and
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(3) the proposed Balkan interparliamentary union, for which plan-
ning is well advanced in the tripartite secretariat.
Comment: Recent Greek-Turkish tensions,
lack of consensus on Italian membership in the alliance, and con-
tinuing Yugoslav resistance to closer co-ordination of Balkan and
NATO planning have dampened the optimism which at an earlier
time surrounded the GreekrTurldsh-Yugoslav rapprochement.
Although Balkan co-operation apparently
continues to play an important role in Yugoslav foreign policy,
Belgrade has recently been showing more interest in the economic
and cultural features than in the military.
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FAR EAST
4. Conservative victory predicted in Japanese general elections:
Next Sunday's elections in Japan are ex-
pected to result in the conservatives
retaining their two-thirds Diet majority
with the Socialists held essentially to their
present strength and the Communists picking up from three to five
seats. The American embassy in Tokyo reports that the two con-
servative parties--Prime Minister Hatoyama's Democrats and the
Liberals of Yoshida and Ogata--are expected to reverse their posi-
tions, making the Democrats the leading party in the Diet.
Another Hatoyama cabinet is foreseen,
but it will remain a minority government, despite possible Liberal
defections to the Democrats. Most observers believe efforts for
a wholesale conservative merger will fail, and the Liberals will
remain in opposition.
Comment: The postelection outlook is
for less stability than under Yoshida after the 1953 elections. The
Democrats are divided into at least three major competing factions,
and there is no leader with Yoshida's firm grasp and ability to
maneuver.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
5. Crown prince indicates Laotian desire to join Manila pact:
Crown Prince Savang of Laos believes
strongly that his country's survival in
the event of Communist aggression would
depend on Laotian adherence to the Manila
pact, Speaking for the king in the presence of the American, Brit-
ish and Thai ministers, Savang argued that the Viet Minh is more
likely to provoke this year, through the Pathet Lao, a crisis in
Laos than in Vietnam, where aggression is not probable before
the 1956 elections. He particularly emphasized the grave threat
to Thailand that such aggression would create.
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Savang believed therefore that the cur-
rent Bangkok conference of the Manila pact powers should, with
Laotian participation, consider plans for the defense of Laos.
Comment: The Laotian government
declared at Geneva that it would join no military alliance not in
conformity with the charter of the United Nations or with the
principles of the Geneva truce agreement. The Laotian premier
has stated that the Manila pact does not appear to violate these
considerations and that the royal government, owing to its ex-
posed geographic position, "cannot disinterest" itself in such a
regional defensive organization.
6. Cambodian king proposes drastic constitutional revisions:
The king of Cambodia informed his cabi-
net and the entire diplomatic corps in
Phnom Penh on 19 February that he had
received numerous petitions requesting
the postponement or suppression of the national elections sched-
uled for April. He claimed these petitions reflected the people's
distrust of political parties, particularly the Democratic Party,
arid their objections to the cost of maintaining 70 deputies in the
capital.
To correct the situation, the king pro-
posed a number of "reforms" designed to establish a government
conforming to the dictates of "Cambodian democracyr The major
changes called for were the indirect election of deputies and the
establishment of a cabinet appointed by the king which would not
be collectively responsible to the legislature. The king indicated
he would submit this plan to a popular referendum in April and,
If it should be rejected, elections under the old system would be
held in June.
Comment: The Cambodian king is sensi-
tive to any form of opposition, and his unilateral effort to change
constitutional procedures shows he will go to almost any lengths
to eliminate any real or fancied threat to his position. Although
his plan is not, in itself, contrary to the Geneva agreement, his
attempt to suppress party activity will undoubtedly be disapproved of
by the International Control Commission.
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Despite probable opposition from mod-
erate and responsible elements in Cambodia, the king has the
strength to put his program into effect.
7. Burmese noncommittal regarding offer of American arms:
The initial Burmese reaction to an
American proposal to provide arms
has been one of reserve. Minister of
-Industries Kyaw Nyein has indicated
at although e is personally sympathetic to the idea, he would
have to consult with Commander in Chief Ne Win before giving
his government's preliminary reactions. He did recommend,
however, that there be no publicity and that the grant aid strictly
confidential, as it was politically impossible for Burma publicly
to accept gift arms from the United States.
Comment: Kyaw Nyein's attitude appears
to suggest that the Burmese have become more cautious in this
matter than they have been in the past. General Ne Win has been
particularly eager to obtain American equipment and has been
concerned only about the cost and the limits placed on the types
of equipment which were made available to Burma.
This caution undoubtedly reflects
Burma's desire to avoid antagonizing Communist China, espe-
cially in view of Premier Nu's assurances that Burma undertake
no action offensive to Peiping. The chances appear to be about
even that Burma will reject the offer if it is made through offi-
cial channels with attendant publicity.
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