CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/02/16

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03157419
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: February 16, 1955

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16 February 1955
Copy No. 88
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO 24
NO CHANGE IN CLASS, pt,
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: -(:) t
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 118 1;140 REVIEWEF
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
T.(377-SE.1C4_3.5.r
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SUMMARY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Indonesian army factions reported to have reached agreement
(page 3).
2. USSR still interested in purchasing Burmese rice (page 3).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Arab League politics may prevent Jordan from accepting Johnston
proposals (page 4).
4. French Foreign Ministry criticizes Iraqi-Turkish treaty plans
(page 5).
5. Prime Minister Sharett's policy receiving more support in Israel
(page 6).
LATIN A:MERICA
6. Comment on reported split in British Guiana People's Progressive
Party (page 6).
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
1. Indonesian army factions reported to have reached agreement:
The two principal Indonesian army fac-
tions, the "pro- and anti-17 October
groups," have reached agreement, ac-
cording to Colonel Kawilarang, West
ava army commander. The agreement, which will be made
public after 17 February, will enable the army to present a united
front against political pressure. Kawilarang stated that if the
forthcoming elections are not conducted honestly, the army would
feel justified in taking action to remove fraudulently elected poli-
ticians.
The American ambassador in Djakarta
comments that if Kawilarang is not being overly optimistic, the
agreement among military commanders to guarantee honest elec-
tions is an encouraging sign that the long-delayed general elections
will be held this summer.
Comment: The two army factions re-
sulted from an incident on 17 October 1952. This incident was
engineered by professionally trained, anti-Communist army
officers who resented political interference in military affairs.
There have been other recent reports
indicating interest in the development of army unity. The anti-17
October group, however, has heretofore exhibited opportunistic
tendencies which the pro-Communist defense minister has exploited.
2. USSR still interested in purchasing Burmese rice:
ov zureign Lraae minister had again
expressed his "sincere desire" to con-
clude a rice deal as soon as possible.
tated that since the questions of price
and quantity had already been settled, adequate assurances on qual-
ity remained the only problem to be resolved. He did not consider
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this obstacle insurmountable as his government was prepared to
suggest alternatives to an earlier demand that the rice be fumi-
gated.
Comment: The Burmese broke off nego-
tiations in early February because of what they considered impos-
sible demands regarding quality. They had been led to believe that
Moscow was eager to purchase a :large quantity of rice as well as
to conclude a trade agreement. They were therefore deeply of-
fended by the unexpected, though typical, hard bargaining tactics
of the Soviet negotiators. This new approach, however, indicates
that the USSR still desires--apparently for political reasons--to
develop economic relations with Burma.
The Burmese trade delegation left Moscow
on 3 February to initiate trade negotiations with the USSR's Euro-
pean Satellites. Although negotiations in Warsaw apparently had
negative results, Czechoslovakia announced on 14 February the
signing of a long-term trade agreement calling for the exchange
of machinery and light industrial products for Burmese rice, fod-
der and raw materials.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
3. Arab League politics may prevent Jordan from accepting Johnston
proposals:
Ambassador Johnston, now concluding his
discussions with the Arab states and Israel
regarding Jordan River development plans,
reports that Arab League politics have
ma e difficult or Jordan to take favorable action on his proposals.
Johnston states that the cordial atmosphere
which greeted him in Amman had raised his hope for Jordanian ac-
ceptance of his proposals. This would encourage agreement by
Syria and Lebanon. Lebanon urged Jordan to take no action, how-
ever, until Arab representatives reassembled in Beirut about
18 February to consider the final Arab position on the Jordan
River proposals.
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Comment: Ambassador Johnston visited
the Near East in late 1953 and mia-1954 in an effort to obtain agree-
ment on the same plan. On the present trip he has had discussions
in Tel Aviv, Cairo, and Amman. He will continue his talks in
Damascus and Beirut.
The prospects for achieving a compromise
agreement at this time are not bright, despite both Arab and Israeli
reluctance to assume the onus for failure of the negotiations.
4. French Foreign Ministry criticizes Iraqi-Turkish treaty plans:
In answer to a question by the American
embassy, a high French Foreign Ministry
spokesman replied on 14 February that
the proposed Iraqi-Turkish treaty, while
n e "rig tdirection" of collective security in the Middle East,
is not necessarily the "right move." The spokesman cited the re-
newed arms race between Israel and the Arab states, Arab discord
which the treaty has already produced, and French fears of Iraq's
intentions toward Syria.
Comment: Though not opposed to the
"northern tier" approach to Middai East defense, the French be-
lieve that the United States and Britain, but not France, may be
Invited to participate in the proposed Iraqi-Turkish treaty. They
also resent that they were not consulted early in the treaty nego-
tiations.
France fears that its
position in Syria is being undermined. In addition, it fears that
Egyptian hostility to the treaty may result in a renewed Arab at-
tack on its position in North Africa.
French insistence on joining the treaty
would probably provoke strong Arab, particularly Iraqi, opposi-
tion.
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5. Prime Minister Sharett's policy receiving more support in Israel:
The American embassy in Tel Aviv reports
that both former premier Ben-Gurion and
some critics within the cabinet appear for
the time being to be backing Prime Minis-
ter Sharett's foreign policy of restraint and
bassy also believes that Mapai, the dominant
political party, will continue to support Sharett. This development
has left Defense Minister Lavon and the extremists "out on a limb."
Comment: This is the first report that
Ben-Gurion has shifted his backing from the aggressive approach
of Lavon to Sharett's policy of diplomatic action.
Even though at present there appears to be
a closing of ranks behind Sharett, popular support for a tough line
and considerable army opposition to the current moderate policy�
remain, Moreover, Ben-Gurion is realistic and may be expected
to support aggressive action should he consider it necessary.
LATIN AMERICA
6. Comment on reported split in British Guiana People's Progressive
Party:
The reported demotion of Communists
Cheddi and Janet Jagan from official top
leadership of the People's Progressive
Party in British Guiana offers little en-
couragement to Britain's hopes for an end to the political stalemate
in the colony and a return to gradual political development.
The party, whose activities caused London
to suspend the British Guiana constitution in October 1953, remains
the only effective one in the colony. This is due mainly to the con-
tinued apathy of moderate elements.
British officials have long regarded Lyndon
Burnham, the newly elected party leader, as possibly even more
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dangerous to British interests than the Jagans, who will presum-
ably retain a measure of influence in the party despite their demo-
tion. In addition, support of Burnham by East Indians in the party
executive suggests that the People's Progressive Party's appeal
to all racial groups in British Guiana remains unimpaired.
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