Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
September 20, 2019
Document Release Date: 
September 26, 2019
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
February 11, 1955
0::?:;:itzooss#3Appved for Release:,20.19e7 CO3:ef,e7,0;07,4�77, TOP 3.3(h)(2) 4 11 February 1955 3.5(c) fjo �r/ e/ 01 /I/ erf fid 00 Copy No. 00 S8 e i' evk D CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 2% ir,/ 7/ DOCtJMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS g � DECLASSIFIED 0 CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C NEXT REVIEW DATE: -ZPLO AUTH: HR 70-2 DATE. $ k 8 OREVIEWER: Office of Current Intelligence , /0*: CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY '��; ;; /7 TOP ET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 Pim ?-% "NI rk.rel Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 Nee �irlf SUMMARY GENERAL 1. Comment on Western European view that USSR will revert to "hard" foreign policy (page 3). SOVIET UNION 2. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Malenkov's downfall (page 4). 3. Comment on recent Soviet statements on Formosa (page 5). 4. MIG-17's possibly equipped with airborne intercept radar (page 5). 5. Warsaw conference suggests new Soviet position on troop with- drawal from Germany (page 6). FAR EAST 6. Hatoyama adviser sees China trade as only way to Japanese independence (page 7). 7. Comment on Chinese Communist threat to Nanchishan (page 8). 8. Major troop transport mission on Yangtze River indicated (page 9). SOUTHEAST ASIA 9. WESTERN EUROPE 10. French may consider tripartite solidarity at stake in Near East (page 10). 11. Comment on the French government crisis (page 11). 11 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 ApproveTGRelease7.70719709/17 C03157467 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 GENERAL 1. Comment on Western European view that USSR will revert to 'hard" foreign policy: Government officials and the non- Communist press in Western Europe are virtually unanimous in their view that the new Soviet leadership will adopt a "hard" foreign policy line. Hope for a top-level East-West meet- ing has dwindled. Chancellor Adenauer states that his opponents' arguments against German rearmament have been blighted. The British Foreign Office has announced that Eden will cut short his Far Eastern trip which is to follow the Manila pact confer- ence late this month. A high Dutch Foreign Ministry official, whose government foresees a reversion to Stalinism in the USSR, states that Khrushchev may not restrain the Chinese Communists. He described Molotov's speech as "belligerent." Italy's Foreign Minister Martino be- lieves a "hard" Soviet policy will help Rome's anti-Communist campaign. European Socialists, such as Aneurin Bevan in Britain and the Social Democrats in West Germany, ap- pear to share the general view that the Soviet Union will take a harder line and are expressing regret at "the failure of the West to grasp the hand offered by Malenkov." The growing conviction that the Soviet Union may revert to more belligerent cold war policies will lead to greater attention to defense problems in Western Europe. Any suggestion of stronger Soviet support for Communist China will quicken the sense of urgency about an early settlement in the Far East� 11 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 TOP SifRFT Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 TY1D c Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 Nftie gero SOVIET UNION 2. Ambassador Bohlen comments on Malenkov's downfall: Ambassador Bohlen believes that Malenkov's downfall is the logical climax of a far-reaching split within the top leadership involving two dif- ferent concepts of the future development of the USSR. Signs of differences between Khrushchev and Malenkov over eco- nomic policy first appeared nearly a year ago, but problems of foreign affairs, especially German rearmament, apparently brought matters to a head in the latter part of December. The ambassador feels that Malenkov's defeat marks a return to the Stalinist outlook and will lead to a hardening all along the line in both foreign and domestic policy. Bohlen states that, while Khrushchev's victory makes him the most powerful man in the USSR, it would be premature to conclude that the period of collective leadership Is drawing to a close. The personal power factor appears to be the result rather than the cause of the policy dispute. Although Malenkov's fate is uncertain, his demotion appears to follow the traditional path of gradual elimination, The ambassador comments, however, that Malen- kov's statement to the Supreme Soviet was unlike the abject groveling of discredited leaders in Stalin's day and contained no specific repudiation of his policies as prime minister except on the issue of heavy industry. In fact, Malenkov's deliberate ef- fort to connect his guilt to Stalinist agricultural policies could be an indirect slap at Khrushchev's agricultural program, which bears more resemblanc,e to Stalinist coercive methods than did the in- centives stressed by Malenkov in 1953. One version of the affair, allegedly emanating from the London Daily Worker correspondent in Moscow, states that Malenkov walked out. of the recent central committee debate on economic problems. It was supposedly only after this that it was decided to relieve him as prime minister, it having been planned for him to stay in that post as an expression of party solidarity on the new line. Ambassador Bohlen is especially in- terested in this unconfirmed version's implication that Malenkov rather than Khrushchev forced the issue of his removal. 11 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 '7' D tDrL" Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 Now In" Comment: In connection with the ambassador's remarks on the continuation of collective lead- ership, the removal of Beria and now the demotion of Malenkov may render Khrushchev's consolidation of his position a simpler task than that which Malenkov faced. Comment on recent Soviet statements on Formosa: The latest statements of Bulganin and Molotov on the Formosa situation ap- pear designed to convince the world of Soviet-Chinese Communist solidarity. Bulganin's pledge of "full Soviet approval and support" for the "noble cause" of the Chinese people is the strongest statement Moscow has made on the Formosa issue. Like all previous Soviet pronouncements on Formosa, however, these latest speeches made no specific com- mitment of arms or aid, and both omitted the usual reference to � Chinese determination to "liberate" the island, Bulganin main- tained the careful distinction that it is the Soviet "people," not the government, to whom the Chinese may look for sympathy and sup- port, and Molotov did not give even this much support. Both leaders reiterated that American withdrawal from the China area is the only solution to the problem, and both strongly reproached the UN for failing to demand this. Initial Soviet comment on the much- publicized fifth anniversary of the Sino-Soviet treaty on 14 February has carefully skirted application of the treaty to the current Formosa crisis. MIG-17's possibly equipped with airborne intercept radar: 11 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 irv-1 D C.371-15rl 7' Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 NM, Comment: Specially modified MIG-17's could carry intercept radar equipment in pods under the wings or possibly in the nose section. � About 40 percent of the Soviet fighter establishment of approximately 10,000 jet fighters is comprised of MIG-17's, which were identified in operational Soviet units as early as 1952. It is estimated that 200 airborne intercept radar- equipped night or all-weather fighters will be in operational units by mid-1955. 5. Warsaw conference suggests new Soviet position on troop with- drawal Germany: A conference of official delegations from the Orbit states and of Communist- front delegations from eight West Euro- pean countries, which met in Warsaw on 6 February, has issued a statement that four-power agreement is possible on the simultaneous withdrawal of all occupation troops from Germany, with the Soviet troops returning to the USSR. The statement suggested the withdrawal from Poland of all Soviet troops guarding military communication lines to Germany. The proposal also included German unifi- cation with "free and controlled" elections based on an electoral law guaranteeing democratic freedotns, as was envisaged iii the Eden plan. It declared that only a German settlement would make an Austrian treaty possible and reaffirmed that ratification of the Paris accords would ruin the chances for negotiations. 11 Feb 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 T11 n PT" Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03157467 rnin, Cue Irr3