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March 19, 1959
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Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 WI� ..E�orMC Noe 19 March 1959 Copy No. 'c 63 CENTRAL IVIELLIGENCE BULLETIN' rk _dolt DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS. "�. I i S;::CLASGIF:ED Ci-IAED TO: NEXT REVIEW DATE: -4(0941 PD'UNTri-10001) REVIEWER: -T-O-P-SECRE-T- /if,/ ZApproved for Release: 2020/02/21 CO31606227 Zjji Ziff A ApproveFfO-r17-ele-:-2EC7E/21 C03160622 TAD cre�orT Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Approved for forffjo.s.L2.020/02/21 C03160622 . � 19 MARCH 1959 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC , Peiping accuses Tito of "fabrication"; Belgrade likely to retort in kind despite announcement of new trade agreement with Peiping. Moscow-Cairo split over Iraq seen cer- tain to widen. IL ASIA-AFRICA UAR's continued strong propaganda against Qasim apparently intended to compensate for depletion of UAR as- sets in Iraq. Israel moves tanks into Jerusalem, pos- sibly in anticipation of an upheaval in Jordan. Kuwait concerned over influx of Iraqis. Japan - Relations with US likely to be main issue in forthcoming election cam- paign. Hammarskjold may seek Indian media- tion for Laos - North Vietnam dispute. I I L THE WEST 0 De Gaulle may soon face overt opposi- tion to his Algerian policy. (SECRET NOFORN) Rebels order "counteroffen- sive" in anticipation of new, drive by French Army. �Portugal - Salazar regime concerned over security situation. Decline in West Berlin's industrial or- der book may reflect political apprehen- TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 r Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 *or a...IL-1,64XL., 41.10j CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN fri 19 March 1959 DAILY BRIEF L THE COMMUNIST BLOC Watch Committee conclusion--Berlin: Although the Soviets could turn over Berlin access controls to the East Germans with little or no warning, available evidence does not indicate that they intend to do so in the immediate future. Communist China - Yugoslavia: Peiping has formally accused Tito of "fabrication" when he alleged that Premier Chou En-lai had asked Indonesian officials not to welcome him during his recent trip. Tito can be expected to retaliate with further attacks on Peiping in accord with his newly stated pol- icy of answering bloc attacks "blow for blow." Nevertheless, Belgrade announced the signing of the 1959 trade agreement with the Chinese on the same day that Peiping's protest was made. (Page 1) USSR-UAR: Moscow has followed up Khrushchev's 16 March criticism of Nasir's anti- Qa s M2 anti-Communist moves with press and radio charges that Nasir's attacks on the Qasim re- gime "can be welcomed only by the imperialists." Ambassador Thompson in commenting on Khrushchev's speech, states that the spit between Moscow and Cairo "appears certain to widen." UAR propaganda organs have now begun direct accusa- tions that the USSR wants "to subject Pie entire Arab area to Communism." 11. Ablik -AV ALL:1 UAR-Iraq: asir's continuation of a strong propaganda cam- paign against the Qasim regime apparently is designed to com- pensate for the defeat the pro- UAR elements in Iraq suffere TOP SECRET pproved for k=lOgairil/ c 03160622 A A /r Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 %NO Vsof .\`, Cwith the suppression of the Mosul rising. With UAR assets in Iraq depleted, some UAR officials estimate that it may be a year or more before a new effort against Qasim can be made. The UAR evidently intends nonetheless to maintain as much pressure as it can, Israel-Jordan: The UN Truce Supervisory Organization estimated that there were 13 or 14 Israeli tanks in Jerusalem on 17 March. This deployment, in violation of the Israeli- Jordanian armistice agreement, coincides with the withdrawal ei}of certain Jordanian military units from West JordanGnd with reports of an imminent attempt by Bedouin army officers to seize control of the Jordanian Government, possibly abetted y the UARg The Israelis, who presumably are aware of these developments, might react to an upheaval in Amman by moving into the Jordanian sector of Jerusalem and possibly West Jordan. (Page 3) Kuwait: The Kuwaiti Government is concerned that a re- cent Tarim of an unusual number of Iraqis may presage "fifth column" activity in the oil-rich sheikdom. Some 500 are re- ported to have entered recently and 4,000 more to be awaiting completion of passport formalities. The American Consulate believes the influx is primarily a reflection of Iraq's eco- nomic stagnation but sees an increase in subversive activity as entirely possible. Watch Committee conclusion�Middle East: Situations sus- ceptible of direct exploitation by Sino-Soviet bloc hostile action which would jeopardize US interests exist in the Middle East, particularly in Iran and Iraq. The situation in the area remains 19 Mar 59 DAILY BRIEF ii TOP SECRET Ar ,Approved for Release: 2020762/2/1 /a3160627 � r Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 *00 I WI precarious, but a deliberate initiation of large-scale hostilities is unlikely in the immediate future. Iraq: The drift of Iraq toward Communist control is ac- celerating with the continuing elimination of elements in oppo- sition to the Qasim government. Jordan: The absence of King Husayn and Prime Minister Rifain Jordan has provided opportunity for intensified polit- ical activity among disaffected elements, and has increased the likelihood of a MUD attempt. IA Japan: There is increasing likelihood that Japan's ties with the US will be the primary issue in the forthcoming Jap- anese election campaign. The Socialists apparently are shift- ing from their policy of "neutrality" and moving toward a pro- Communist line. Not only have they decided to join the Com- munists in opposition to the US-Japan security treaty, but, in a Joint communique with Chinese Communist leaders, a Socialist mission in Peiping identified itself generally with the Commu- nist position on Asian questions. (Page 4) India-Laos: Hammarskjold arrived in New Delhi on 18 March bringing proposals for easing the tension between Laos and North Vietnam which he will discuss with Nehru. The solu- tions studied during his talks with the Laotian Government in- clude mediation by India, by a third nation mutually acceptable to Vientiane and Hanoi, or by a person nominated by Hammarskjold. Nehru, although reluctant to become deeply involved, may agree to Indian mediation as the most acceptable solution to what he rperartiq a q a rinna.Prniiq nrnhichm / III. THE WEST France-Algeria: De Gaulle may soon encounter overt op- position to his Algerian policy from some military and righti groups. They may be spurred to act soon by leaks of his re- ported plans to hold a referendum in France on the question o continuing the war, as well as by reports of his efforts to nego- tiate with rebel leaders. A major rightist demonstration in Algiers on 22 March is like lED (Page 6) Meanwhile, the Algerian rebels' minister of defense in Cairo on 11 March observed that De Gaulle has promised peace 19 Mar 59 DAILY BM:A! TOP SECRET ill r/ AApproved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 4 4 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 vase *Nirl 144 in 1959 but ordered rebel units to prepare a "counteroffen- sive" against an expected "spring offensive" by the French Army. The rebels have frequently failed to carry out orders from headquarters, but accelerated operations this year against communications facilities and utilities suggest greater determi- nation. (Page 5) Portugal: ahe government still seems worried over the internal security situation. It believes the abortive move against the Salazar regime on 12 March was far more com- pletely organized than at first suspected. Security authoriti fear that a major disturbance in Lisbon, particularly if joined by any part of the military would touch off an uprising that might get out of controrI (Page 7) West Berlin: Economic indicators reveal no general de- e terioration in the past week. For the first time, however, they r cord a definite decline in new industrial orders which may re- lect an increasing apprehension over Berlin's political future. This decline, which is noted in heavy industry as well as con- sumer-goods orders received during January,will have no im- mediate effect but may show up in production and employment levels later in the year. (Page 8) 19 Mar 59 DAILY BRIEF iv TOP SECRET AApproved for Release: 2020/02/21 CO3160622 A Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Laa...".�/1.11-4 A VW, I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Nue Peiping Protests Tito Remarks Peiping formally accused Tito, in a note given to the Yugo- slav charg�n 18 March, of "fabrication" in stating that Pre- mier Chou En-lai had asked Indonesians "not to welcome" the Yugoslav President In denying that Chou made this statement, the Chinese may be trying to undermine the credibility of Tito's comments to Asian leaders. During his recent tour, Tito at- tempted, in an effort to build stronger ties with "neutrals," to stimulate greater apprehension of Peiping and the implacably hostile nature of its "Stalinist" brand of Communism. Diplomatic relations between the two countries have been "frozen" at charg�evel since mid-1958, but the Chinese protest does not seem to foreshadow a complete rupture. The 1959 Sino-Yugoslav trade agreement was signed the same day the pro- test was made. While the trade goal of $7,000,000 in this agree- ment is 60 percent lower than in 1958, trade between the two countries has largely been artificial since it began in 1956.[By signing it, Peiping continues to parallel Khrushchev, who said Belgrade would be fought "every step of the way" on ideological- matters without breaking off other relations, including trade. Communist China may consider renewal of the agreement a use- ful device to counter charges that the bloc's external trade rela- tions are affected by ideological consideration Belgrade is certain to retaliate with even more violent at- tacks against Peiping in accord with its newly stated policy of answering bloc attacks "blowtar blow." As in its strained re- lations with Tirana, however, Belgrade also will be careful not to break diplomatic ties because of the damage this would cause to its international advocacy of coexistence among all states. SECRET 19 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 1 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 ....a...W. NNW IWO IL ASIA-AFRICA UAR-Iraqi Situation ,AR pr opagandathBaghdad regime are becoming more widespread and intense, following Nasir's series of anti-Communist speeches beginning in Damascus on 11 March. The attacks, besides attempting to rally Arab opin- ion against Iraq, are probably designed to cover the almost total defeat of pro-UAR forces in the Mosul uprising. The abortive revolt appears to have thrown Cairo officials into a mood of pessimism, with one top regime figure predicting that it may be a yen- or more before a new effort against Qasim can be made. "nationalists" there are completely intimidated, UAR personnel themselves fear kidnaping, and UAR students are seeking a UAR Embassy guarantee of "their future and their livegj _.ropaganda media in the two capitals have sunk to new lows in their attacks on each other's head of state. Col. Mandawi, the pro-Communist president of the Baghdad "people's court," has again called on Syria to revolt against the Nasir regime, adding that the Iraqi people are ready to help in the "liberation:} The UAR has sent only limited military reinforcements into eastern Syria, but UAR-Iraqi air incidents may ensue if Syria atternptsracti nnaissani hts along the Syrian border. the Syri- ans have established an operation centei�dtiOMbI3Ta fighter detachment at an airfield in epsttern� Syria and will attenipt.t6 !inter- cept intruding Iraqi aircraft. TOP SECRET 19 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Noe Israelis Move Tanks Into Jerusalem UN truce officials and American consular personnel have observed Israeli tanks moving individually by night into Jerusalem during the past two weeks. The UN Truce Supervisory Organization estimated that 13 or 14 tanks had arrived as of 17 March. Their presence in Jerusalem, in violation of the Is- raeli-Jordanian General Armistice Agreement, could be related to Israeli anticipation of an upheaval in Jordan. CI5edouin army officers reportedly may attempt to take over the government during the absence of both King Hus ayn and Prime Minister Rifai, who left on 18 March to join the King in the United States3 The Israelis are believed to have excellent intelligence sources in Jordan and presumably are aware of the dissident activity. Israel might exploit any large-scale disturbance by occupying the balance of Jerusalem and possibly even West Jordan, especially if it appeared that the disturbance was backed by the UAR. Jordanian strength near the city has been reduced by the recent withdrawal of an infantry regi- ment from the Jerusalem area. SECRET 19 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 3 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Nine Japanese Socialists Adopt Pro-Communist Line The Japanese Socialists apparently are shifting from a policy of "neutrality" and adopting a strong pro-Communist line which they hope will increase their popular appeal in important forth- coming elections in Japan. Socialist Secretary General Inejiro Asanuma, who headed a Socialist mission to Peiping, on 17 March issued a joint communique with Chinese Communist leaders in which he accepted the Communist position on many Asian issues. Among these are Peiping's denunciation of the Kishi govern- ment, the view that the "liberation" of Taiwan is an internal mat- ter, Communist China's call for a nuclear-free zone in Asia, and the substitution of a four-power collective-security pact for the Sino-Soviet and US-Japan security treaties. Earlier Asanuma had termed the United States the "common enemy" of Japan and China for its "occupation" of Okinawa and Taiwan. Asanuma's actions, in conjunction with the recent Socialist decision to form a united front with the Communist party, the left- ist Sohyo labor federation, and other leftists in an all-out attack on the US-Japan security treaty, point to the likelihood that the upper-house elections in June will be contested on the issues of Japan's ties with the United States and with Communist China. Thus far, however, the Japanese press has been strongly crit- ical of the Socialist moves. Peiping's stand, accepted by Asanuma, that trade and political issues must be "settled simultaneously" is intended to emphasize that any temporary, limited trade which may be arranged is merely a "relief measure." Apparently the Chinese Communists fear that any limited agreement, such as that proposed for Japan's lacquer industry, could be construed in Japan as a concession and would therefore justify Kishils "wait-and-see" policy. In the commu- nique the Chinese Communists went even beyond their previous position, saying that at present the solution of political questions "must be given preference." CONFIDENTIAL 19 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 WI. 1..46.04 %LA IMO Algerian Rebels Prepare for Counteroffensive The Algerian rebels' minister of defense has ordered rebel units in Tunisia and Morocco to prepare a counterof- fensive against an anticipated spring drive by the French Arm He ordered sabotage activity agains commumca- tions lines, mines, and oil trains, and demoralization of re- group ment centers where the French Army has resettled large numbers of Algerian Moslems. Rebel units were also Instructed to lay ambushes, to prevent the recruiting of Mos- lem auxiliaries by the French Army, and to maintain intensive activity against the electrified barriers along both the Tunisian and Moroccan borders. Although the rebels have frequently failed to carry out their military plans, operations against communications facilities and utilities have accelerated since early this year0 preparations were under way for a Saharan offensive to prevent the com- pletion of the two 24-inch pipelines now under construction to move Algerian oil, rff'he French Government is reported by an untested source to have information of Libyan-based rebel planes which may be used to bomb Saharan oil installa- tionS-.) Anticipating that their best efforts can only prolong the military stalemate, rebel leaders are concentrating on lining up more effective diplomatic support while reportedly main- taining contacts with representatives of President de Gaulle. Rebel president Ferhat Abbas and some of his ministers have already visited Saudi Arabia and ,Libya,.here they 'contacted the Soviet Embassy as welbas the Libyan Governmerig He will head a delegation expected to call at the 13 other capitals which have recognized his provisiorl government and Visit India, which has not granted recognition. TOP SECRET 19 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 d III. THE WEST Nor Overt French Military and Rightist Opposition to De Gaulle On Algeria Likely ahere are indicatOns that some ale-hard elements in the French armed forces may join rightist civilian groups in openly opposing De Gaulle's Algerian policy. Army General Massu on 1 March, in his first "political speech" in recent months, de- scribed the May 1958 revolt by French military leaders in Alge- ria as "an event of profound significance which still escapes many" and referred pointedly to the integration of Algeria with France as one of its objectives. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen- eral Jouhaud, who was born in Algeria and played a leading role in the revolt, is reported to have made more visits to Al- geria recently than his position warrants. There have been numerous army-- complaints recently that efforts to win the sup- port of the mass of the Moslem population are severely hand- icapped by De Gaulle's continued refusal to espouse "integra- tio0 rench military and rightist groups, who regard any pro- posed settlement of the Algerian problem short of complete vic- tory as "abandonment," are probably being spurred toward early action by leaks of De Gaulle's previously reported intention to hold a referendum in France on the question of continuing the war. There is increasing evidence that a majority of the public wants an end to the war and would probably support a "liberal" solution if De Gaulle proposed one. Rumors of secret French- rebel contacts also have upset these military and rightist circleA (Extremist European settlers in Algeria, particularly vet- erans' organizations, have become openly hostile to De Gaulle, and are regrouping,as a result of the government's clemency measures toward Algerian rebels and of the announcement that the municipal elections in April will be conducted under a new law favoring Moslem candidates. Although De Gaulle's steps to split the military-settler front of 1958 had appeared successful, the settlers are continuing their efforts to regain military support and are likely to stage a major demonstration in Algiers on 22 March when Jouhaud decorates air force reservists therd3 SECRET 19 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 110 /.4����8 %LI Nue, NNW' Salazar Regime Concerned Over Ramifications of Recently Thwarted Plot /The Portuguese uovernment reportedly is still concerned over the political situation, although police forestalled a move against the Salazar regime planned for 12 March, the authorities have evidence that the abortive plot was more completely organized than first realized, and are particularly concerned over what they re- gard as complicity on the part of at least one military com- mander in the Lisbon area the plotters intended to seize arms stores and attack the headquarters of the international security police, the Republican Guard, and the Lisbon city hall as well as the President's palace and Premier Salazar's residence. Some military support was expected. In the event of success, lead- ers of the revolt planned to set up a military junta, which would Include oppositionist leader General Humberto Delgado, now in asylum at the Brazilian Embassy in Lisbolg CI:he security police fear that a major disturbance in Lisbon, particularly if supported by some of the military, might well spark a revolt in the rest of the country that would severely tax the government's repressive powers. The American Embas- sy in Lisbon believes further attempts against the regime can- not be ruled out, although the authorities appear at this time to have the situati7 under controg SECRET 19 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 � rnhlrl11FMT1A I Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 �tirtv Decline in West Berlin Industrial Orders Noted for First Time Economic indicators for West Berlin reveal no general deterioration during the past week. For the first time, how- ever, there has been a definite decline in new industrial or- ders, The index number for new orders for January fell to 184 compared with 218 in December and 203 in January of last year. Large declines were reported in comparison with this time last year in structural steel, transportation equip- ment, machinery, and electrical equipment. For the electri- cal industry, Berlin's largest manufacturer with 30 percent of the industrial output and labor force, new orders dropped from an index of 240 in January 1958 to 194 in January 1959. The downturn reflects a lower volume of orders not only from West German markets but locally and for export to for- eign countries. The consumer-goods industry also registered some declines in paper products, printing, leather goods, and textiles. However, new orders for chemicals, ceramics, build- ing materials, and iron and steel products increased. American officials in Berlin report that some of the decline may be due to economic factors in West Germany, as well as to increasing pessimism over the city's future. Because of backlogs, the effect of the declines will not be noticeable in the levels of production and employment for several months. It is estimated that a 50-percent decline in new orders would almost double Berlin's present unemployment figure of ap- proximately 90,000. CONFIDENTIAL 19 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 8 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 CONFIDENTIA- THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Executive Secretary, National Security Council The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior The Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director United States Information Agency The Director --C-491)4FIDENTIAL--- Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160622 �