CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/03/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03160622
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: March 19, 1959

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19 March 1959
Copy No. 'c 63
CENTRAL
IVIELLIGENCE
BULLETIN'
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DOCUMENT NO.
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19 MARCH 1959
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC ,
Peiping accuses Tito of "fabrication";
Belgrade likely to retort in kind despite
announcement of new trade agreement
with Peiping.
Moscow-Cairo split over Iraq seen cer-
tain to widen.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
UAR's continued strong propaganda
against Qasim apparently intended to
compensate for depletion of UAR as-
sets in Iraq.
Israel moves tanks into Jerusalem, pos-
sibly in anticipation of an upheaval in
Jordan.
Kuwait concerned over influx of Iraqis.
Japan - Relations with US likely to be
main issue in forthcoming election cam-
paign.
Hammarskjold may seek Indian media-
tion for Laos - North Vietnam dispute.
I I L THE WEST
0 De Gaulle may soon face overt opposi-
tion to his Algerian policy. (SECRET
NOFORN) Rebels order "counteroffen-
sive" in anticipation of new, drive by
French Army.
�Portugal - Salazar regime concerned
over security situation.
Decline in West Berlin's industrial or-
der book may reflect political apprehen-
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
fri
19 March 1959
DAILY BRIEF
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Watch Committee conclusion--Berlin: Although the Soviets
could turn over Berlin access controls to the East Germans with
little or no warning, available evidence does not indicate that
they intend to do so in the immediate future.
Communist China - Yugoslavia: Peiping has formally
accused Tito of "fabrication" when he alleged that Premier
Chou En-lai had asked Indonesian officials not to welcome him
during his recent trip. Tito can be expected to retaliate with
further attacks on Peiping in accord with his newly stated pol-
icy of answering bloc attacks "blow for blow." Nevertheless,
Belgrade announced the signing of the 1959 trade agreement with
the Chinese on the same day that Peiping's protest was made.
(Page 1)
USSR-UAR: Moscow has followed up Khrushchev's 16 March
criticism of Nasir's anti- Qa s M2 anti-Communist moves with
press and radio charges that Nasir's attacks on the Qasim re-
gime "can be welcomed only by the imperialists." Ambassador
Thompson in commenting on Khrushchev's speech, states
that the spit between Moscow and Cairo "appears certain to
widen." UAR propaganda organs have now begun direct accusa-
tions that the USSR wants "to subject Pie entire Arab area to
Communism."
11. Ablik -AV ALL:1
UAR-Iraq: asir's continuation of a strong propaganda cam-
paign against the Qasim regime apparently is designed to com-
pensate for the defeat the pro- UAR elements in Iraq suffere
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Cwith the suppression of the Mosul rising. With UAR assets
in Iraq depleted, some UAR officials estimate that it may be
a year or more before a new effort against Qasim can be
made. The UAR evidently intends nonetheless to maintain
as much pressure as it can,
Israel-Jordan: The UN Truce Supervisory Organization
estimated that there were 13 or 14 Israeli tanks in Jerusalem
on 17 March. This deployment, in violation of the Israeli-
Jordanian armistice agreement, coincides with the withdrawal
ei}of certain Jordanian military units from West JordanGnd with
reports of an imminent attempt by Bedouin army officers to
seize control of the Jordanian Government, possibly abetted
y the UARg The Israelis, who presumably are aware of
these developments, might react to an upheaval in Amman by
moving into the Jordanian sector of Jerusalem and possibly
West Jordan.
(Page 3)
Kuwait: The Kuwaiti Government is concerned that a re-
cent Tarim of an unusual number of Iraqis may presage "fifth
column" activity in the oil-rich sheikdom. Some 500 are re-
ported to have entered recently and 4,000 more to be awaiting
completion of passport formalities. The American Consulate
believes the influx is primarily a reflection of Iraq's eco-
nomic stagnation but sees an increase in subversive activity
as entirely possible.
Watch Committee conclusion�Middle East: Situations sus-
ceptible of direct exploitation by Sino-Soviet bloc hostile action
which would jeopardize US interests exist in the Middle East,
particularly in Iran and Iraq. The situation in the area remains
19 Mar 59
DAILY BRIEF ii
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precarious, but a deliberate initiation of large-scale hostilities
is unlikely in the immediate future.
Iraq: The drift of Iraq toward Communist control is ac-
celerating with the continuing elimination of elements in oppo-
sition to the Qasim government.
Jordan: The absence of King Husayn and Prime Minister
Rifain Jordan has provided opportunity for intensified polit-
ical activity among disaffected elements, and has increased the
likelihood of a MUD attempt.
IA
Japan: There is increasing likelihood that Japan's ties
with the US will be the primary issue in the forthcoming Jap-
anese election campaign. The Socialists apparently are shift-
ing from their policy of "neutrality" and moving toward a pro-
Communist line. Not only have they decided to join the Com-
munists in opposition to the US-Japan security treaty, but, in a
Joint communique with Chinese Communist leaders, a Socialist
mission in Peiping identified itself generally with the Commu-
nist position on Asian questions. (Page 4)
India-Laos: Hammarskjold arrived in New Delhi on 18
March bringing proposals for easing the tension between Laos
and North Vietnam which he will discuss with Nehru. The solu-
tions studied during his talks with the Laotian Government in-
clude mediation by India, by a third nation mutually acceptable to
Vientiane and Hanoi, or by a person nominated by Hammarskjold.
Nehru, although reluctant to become deeply involved, may agree
to Indian mediation as the most acceptable solution to what he
rperartiq a q a rinna.Prniiq nrnhichm
/ III. THE WEST
France-Algeria: De Gaulle may soon encounter overt op-
position to his Algerian policy from some military and righti
groups. They may be spurred to act soon by leaks of his re-
ported plans to hold a referendum in France on the question o
continuing the war, as well as by reports of his efforts to nego-
tiate with rebel leaders. A major rightist demonstration in
Algiers on 22 March is like lED (Page 6)
Meanwhile, the Algerian rebels' minister of defense in
Cairo on 11 March observed that De Gaulle has promised peace
19 Mar 59
DAILY BM:A!
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144
in 1959 but ordered rebel units to prepare a "counteroffen-
sive" against an expected "spring offensive" by the French
Army. The rebels have frequently failed to carry out orders
from headquarters, but accelerated operations this year against
communications facilities and utilities suggest greater determi-
nation. (Page 5)
Portugal: ahe government still seems worried over
the internal security situation. It believes the abortive move
against the Salazar regime on 12 March was far more com-
pletely organized than at first suspected. Security authoriti
fear that a major disturbance in Lisbon, particularly if joined
by any part of the military would touch off an uprising that
might get out of controrI
(Page 7)
West Berlin: Economic indicators reveal no general de-
e
terioration in the past week. For the first time, however, they
r cord a definite decline in new industrial orders which may re-
lect an increasing apprehension over Berlin's political future.
This decline, which is noted in heavy industry as well as con-
sumer-goods orders received during January,will have no im-
mediate effect but may show up in production and employment
levels later in the year. (Page 8)
19 Mar 59
DAILY BRIEF iv
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Nue
Peiping Protests Tito Remarks
Peiping formally accused Tito, in a note given to the Yugo-
slav charg�n 18 March, of "fabrication" in stating that Pre-
mier Chou En-lai had asked Indonesians "not to welcome" the
Yugoslav President In denying that Chou made this statement,
the Chinese may be trying to undermine the credibility of Tito's
comments to Asian leaders. During his recent tour, Tito at-
tempted, in an effort to build stronger ties with "neutrals," to
stimulate greater apprehension of Peiping and the implacably
hostile nature of its "Stalinist" brand of Communism.
Diplomatic relations between the two countries have been
"frozen" at charg�evel since mid-1958, but the Chinese protest
does not seem to foreshadow a complete rupture. The 1959
Sino-Yugoslav trade agreement was signed the same day the pro-
test was made. While the trade goal of $7,000,000 in this agree-
ment is 60 percent lower than in 1958, trade between the two
countries has largely been artificial since it began in 1956.[By
signing it, Peiping continues to parallel Khrushchev, who said
Belgrade would be fought "every step of the way" on ideological-
matters without breaking off other relations, including trade.
Communist China may consider renewal of the agreement a use-
ful device to counter charges that the bloc's external trade rela-
tions are affected by ideological consideration
Belgrade is certain to retaliate with even more violent at-
tacks against Peiping in accord with its newly stated policy of
answering bloc attacks "blowtar blow." As in its strained re-
lations with Tirana, however, Belgrade also will be careful
not to break diplomatic ties because of the damage this would
cause to its international advocacy of coexistence among all
states.
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IL ASIA-AFRICA
UAR-Iraqi Situation
,AR pr opagandathBaghdad regime
are becoming more widespread and intense, following Nasir's
series of anti-Communist speeches beginning in Damascus on
11 March. The attacks, besides attempting to rally Arab opin-
ion against Iraq, are probably designed to cover the almost
total defeat of pro-UAR forces in the Mosul uprising. The
abortive revolt appears to have thrown Cairo officials into a
mood of pessimism, with one top regime figure predicting that
it may be a yen- or more before a new effort against Qasim
can be made.
"nationalists" there are completely intimidated, UAR personnel
themselves fear kidnaping, and UAR students are seeking a UAR
Embassy guarantee of "their future and their livegj
_.ropaganda media in the two capitals have sunk to new lows
in their attacks on each other's head of state. Col. Mandawi, the
pro-Communist president of the Baghdad "people's court," has
again called on Syria to revolt against the Nasir regime, adding
that the Iraqi people are ready to help in the "liberation:}
The UAR has sent only limited military reinforcements into
eastern Syria, but UAR-Iraqi air incidents may ensue if Syria
atternptsracti nnaissani hts along the Syrian
border. the Syri-
ans have established an operation centei�dtiOMbI3Ta fighter
detachment at an airfield in epsttern� Syria and will attenipt.t6 !inter-
cept intruding Iraqi aircraft.
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Israelis Move Tanks Into Jerusalem
UN truce officials and American consular personnel
have observed Israeli tanks moving individually by night
into Jerusalem during the past two weeks. The UN Truce
Supervisory Organization estimated that 13 or 14 tanks had
arrived as of 17 March.
Their presence in Jerusalem, in violation of the Is-
raeli-Jordanian General Armistice Agreement, could be
related to Israeli anticipation of an upheaval in Jordan.
CI5edouin army officers reportedly may attempt to take
over the government during the absence of both King Hus
ayn and Prime Minister Rifai, who left on 18 March to
join the King in the United States3
The Israelis are believed to have excellent intelligence
sources in Jordan and presumably are aware of the dissident
activity. Israel might exploit any large-scale disturbance by
occupying the balance of Jerusalem and possibly even West
Jordan, especially if it appeared that the disturbance was
backed by the UAR. Jordanian strength near the city has
been reduced by the recent withdrawal of an infantry regi-
ment from the Jerusalem area.
SECRET
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Japanese Socialists Adopt Pro-Communist Line
The Japanese Socialists apparently are shifting from a policy
of "neutrality" and adopting a strong pro-Communist line which
they hope will increase their popular appeal in important forth-
coming elections in Japan. Socialist Secretary General Inejiro
Asanuma, who headed a Socialist mission to Peiping, on 17 March
issued a joint communique with Chinese Communist leaders in
which he accepted the Communist position on many Asian issues.
Among these are Peiping's denunciation of the Kishi govern-
ment, the view that the "liberation" of Taiwan is an internal mat-
ter, Communist China's call for a nuclear-free zone in Asia,
and the substitution of a four-power collective-security pact for the
Sino-Soviet and US-Japan security treaties. Earlier Asanuma had
termed the United States the "common enemy" of Japan and China
for its "occupation" of Okinawa and Taiwan.
Asanuma's actions, in conjunction with the recent Socialist
decision to form a united front with the Communist party, the left-
ist Sohyo labor federation, and other leftists in an all-out attack
on the US-Japan security treaty, point to the likelihood that the
upper-house elections in June will be contested on the issues of
Japan's ties with the United States and with Communist China.
Thus far, however, the Japanese press has been strongly crit-
ical of the Socialist moves.
Peiping's stand, accepted by Asanuma, that trade and political
issues must be "settled simultaneously" is intended to emphasize
that any temporary, limited trade which may be arranged is merely
a "relief measure." Apparently the Chinese Communists fear that
any limited agreement, such as that proposed for Japan's lacquer
industry, could be construed in Japan as a concession and would
therefore justify Kishils "wait-and-see" policy. In the commu-
nique the Chinese Communists went even beyond their previous
position, saying that at present the solution of political questions
"must be given preference."
CONFIDENTIAL
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Algerian Rebels Prepare for Counteroffensive
The Algerian rebels' minister of defense has ordered
rebel units in Tunisia and Morocco to prepare a counterof-
fensive against an anticipated spring drive by the French
Arm
He ordered sabotage activity agains commumca-
tions lines, mines, and oil trains, and demoralization of re-
group ment centers where the French Army has resettled
large numbers of Algerian Moslems. Rebel units were also
Instructed to lay ambushes, to prevent the recruiting of Mos-
lem auxiliaries by the French Army, and to maintain intensive
activity against the electrified barriers along both the Tunisian
and Moroccan borders.
Although the rebels have frequently failed to carry out
their military plans, operations against communications
facilities and utilities have accelerated since early this
year0 preparations
were under way for a Saharan offensive to prevent the com-
pletion of the two 24-inch pipelines now under construction
to move Algerian oil, rff'he French Government is reported
by an untested source to have information of Libyan-based
rebel planes which may be used to bomb Saharan oil installa-
tionS-.)
Anticipating that their best efforts can only prolong the
military stalemate, rebel leaders are concentrating on lining
up more effective diplomatic support while reportedly main-
taining contacts with representatives of President de Gaulle.
Rebel president Ferhat Abbas and some of his ministers have
already visited Saudi Arabia and ,Libya,.here they 'contacted
the Soviet Embassy as welbas the Libyan Governmerig He
will head a delegation expected to call at the 13 other capitals
which have recognized his provisiorl government and Visit India,
which has not granted recognition.
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III. THE WEST Nor
Overt French Military and Rightist Opposition to De Gaulle
On Algeria Likely
ahere are indicatOns that some ale-hard elements in the
French armed forces may join rightist civilian groups in openly
opposing De Gaulle's Algerian policy. Army General Massu on
1 March, in his first "political speech" in recent months, de-
scribed the May 1958 revolt by French military leaders in Alge-
ria as "an event of profound significance which still escapes
many" and referred pointedly to the integration of Algeria with
France as one of its objectives. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen-
eral Jouhaud, who was born in Algeria and played a leading
role in the revolt, is reported to have made more visits to Al-
geria recently than his position warrants. There have been
numerous army-- complaints recently that efforts to win the sup-
port of the mass of the Moslem population are severely hand-
icapped by De Gaulle's continued refusal to espouse "integra-
tio0
rench military and rightist groups, who regard any pro-
posed settlement of the Algerian problem short of complete vic-
tory as "abandonment," are probably being spurred toward early
action by leaks of De Gaulle's previously reported intention to
hold a referendum in France on the question of continuing the
war. There is increasing evidence that a majority of the public
wants an end to the war and would probably support a "liberal"
solution if De Gaulle proposed one. Rumors of secret French-
rebel contacts also have upset these military and rightist circleA
(Extremist European settlers in Algeria, particularly vet-
erans' organizations, have become openly hostile to De Gaulle,
and are regrouping,as a result of the government's clemency
measures toward Algerian rebels and of the announcement that
the municipal elections in April will be conducted under a new
law favoring Moslem candidates. Although De Gaulle's steps to
split the military-settler front of 1958 had appeared successful,
the settlers are continuing their efforts to regain military support
and are likely to stage a major demonstration in Algiers on 22
March when Jouhaud decorates air force reservists therd3
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Nue,
NNW'
Salazar Regime Concerned Over Ramifications of Recently
Thwarted Plot
/The Portuguese uovernment reportedly is still concerned
over the political situation, although police forestalled a move
against the Salazar regime planned for 12 March,
the authorities have evidence that
the abortive plot was more completely organized than first
realized, and are particularly concerned over what they re-
gard as complicity on the part of at least one military com-
mander in the Lisbon area
the plotters intended to seize arms stores
and attack the headquarters of the international security police,
the Republican Guard, and the Lisbon city hall as well as the
President's palace and Premier Salazar's residence. Some
military support was expected. In the event of success, lead-
ers of the revolt planned to set up a military junta, which would
Include oppositionist leader General Humberto Delgado, now in
asylum at the Brazilian Embassy in Lisbolg
CI:he security police fear that a major disturbance in Lisbon,
particularly if supported by some of the military, might well
spark a revolt in the rest of the country that would severely
tax the government's repressive powers. The American Embas-
sy in Lisbon believes further attempts against the regime can-
not be ruled out, although the authorities appear at this time
to have the situati7 under controg
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Decline in West Berlin Industrial Orders Noted for First Time
Economic indicators for West Berlin reveal no general
deterioration during the past week. For the first time, how-
ever, there has been a definite decline in new industrial or-
ders, The index number for new orders for January fell to
184 compared with 218 in December and 203 in January of
last year. Large declines were reported in comparison with
this time last year in structural steel, transportation equip-
ment, machinery, and electrical equipment. For the electri-
cal industry, Berlin's largest manufacturer with 30 percent
of the industrial output and labor force, new orders dropped
from an index of 240 in January 1958 to 194 in January 1959.
The downturn reflects a lower volume of orders not only
from West German markets but locally and for export to for-
eign countries. The consumer-goods industry also registered
some declines in paper products, printing, leather goods, and
textiles. However, new orders for chemicals, ceramics, build-
ing materials, and iron and steel products increased.
American officials in Berlin report that some of the decline
may be due to economic factors in West Germany, as well as
to increasing pessimism over the city's future. Because of
backlogs, the effect of the declines will not be noticeable in
the levels of production and employment for several months.
It is estimated that a 50-percent decline in new orders would
almost double Berlin's present unemployment figure of ap-
proximately 90,000.
CONFIDENTIAL
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CONFIDENTIA-
THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
--C-491)4FIDENTIAL---
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