Document Type: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
Release Decision: 
Original Classification: 
Document Page Count: 
Document Creation Date: 
February 25, 2020
Document Release Date: 
February 27, 2020
Sequence Number: 
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 20, 1959
PDF icon CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULL[15787525].pdf600.53 KB
ZZZIZZI WZZI WZZZ/ZrZZ/Z/Z/Z� it I WZ/Z. f///77//// f///////f Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 I %or- acAimic 20 March 1959 Copy No. C 63 CENTRAL 3.3(h)(2) /3.5(c) / /17 lApproved for Release: 2020/02/21 INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN' nn(-;!!....-:,,u- No. _ (,!..A: CH.-VN:CE:0 TO: 13 3 C NEXT REYIEW DATE: 1/-:)aATEr4 Y1 _ REVIEWER: F7.,....i UTH: 1;i"�. -TOP-SECRET- � � --- Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 �MA1:0--C-PAR�Pr� Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 ApproveciOr.liel'ea7e7F0-2-0702/21 C03160623 %ad 20 MARCH 1959 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Khrushchev strikes moderate pose at press conference; accepts proposal for foreign ministers' meeting on 11 May. JAEIC statement on previously un- reported Soviet nuclear explosion. II. ASIA-AFRICA Turkish foreign minister empha- sizes support for Iraqi regime; warns of strong Turkish reaction if Nasir intervenes. Nepal - Prospect of one-party govern- ment gives promise of reduced insta- bility for near future. , III. THE WEST 0 Adenauer asserts willingness to ex- tend de facto recognition to East German regime in return for main- tenance of status quo in Berlin. (S) Former Costa Rican President Figueres planning moves against Caribbean dic- tatorships. LATE ITEMS 0 Geneva - USSR agrees to US article on duration of nuclear test cessa- tion treaty. 0 Tibet - Dalai Lama reported fleeing and seeking asylum in India. �-� f, I-, Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 --( Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Napi CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 20 March 1959 DAILY BRIEF I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR: Khrushchev attempted to create an impression of moderation and restraint in his press conference on 19 March, which apparently was intended as a response to President Eisenhower's address to the nation on 16 March. The Soviet premier's remarks, timed to coincide with Prime Minister Macmillan's arrival in Washington, asserted that Western sentiment favoring negotiations "confirms the realism and timeliness of Soviet proposals." He promised to consider any "reasonable" Western counterproposals, de- cared his readiness to accept a foreign ministers' meeting on 11 May, but reiterated clearly his preference for an im- mediate summit conference. Khrushchev evaded a direct reply when asked if the USSR would refrain from any "con- crete political actions" regarding Berlin in view of Pres- ident Eisenhower's statement about a possible summit meeting this summer. He reaffirmed Moscow's intention to sign a separate peace treaty with East Germany if the West rejects the Soviet proposal for a treaty with both tier- man states. USSR - Nuclear test: The Joint Atomic Ene-r Intelli- gence Committee issued the following statement on 19 March 1959: A review and detailed analysis of geophysical records and radiochemical data from the US Atomic Energy Detection System has revealed evidence of a previously unreported Soviet nuclear explosion at about 1010:45 hours GMT on 21 October 1958, in the vicinity of the Novaya Zemlya test site. Signals now have been reported from six electromagnetic TOP SECRET AApproved for Release: 2020/02/21/6c160623 A LA(4.6% z z Ay; Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Nursi stations. A preliminary estimate indicates that the yield was probably less than five kilotons. This makes a total of seyentv-four Soviet mirlpar tcaqtg ritatpr.trarl to antra II. ASIA-AFRICA *Turkey-Iraq: aurkish Foreign Minister Zorlu, in sep- arate talks with the British and American ambassadors on 16 March, emphasized Turkey's support of the Qasim govern- ment,. He warned that Turkey's reaction would be "strong and immediate," implying even armed intervention, if Egyp takes "positive action"--either direct or indirect--against Iraa. Turkey has given Oasim assurances of its support7 (Page 1) � Nepal: With half the results announced in Nepal's first na- tional eTeCtion the Nepali Congress party, moderately social- ist with neutralist foreign policy views, seems assured of gaining a majority in the new parliament. The Communist party has won only one seat so far. A single-party govern- ment should at least initially reduce the chronic instability /Nepal has experienced since the� overthrow of the Rana olig- archy in 1950-51. (Page 3) III. THE WEST 6 West Germany: hancellor Adenauer has told party offi- cials that he is willing to extend de facto recognition to the East German Government, provided that the status quo in Be lin can be maintained. He based this major potential change in West German: policy on Bonn's need to avoid negotiations on disengagement and to gain time to work out some broad so- lution of East-West problems. Adenauer apparently is willing to permit dealings between the Western powers and East German officials on access to Berlin in return for a guarantee of con- tinued free access2 ) (Page 4) 20 Mar 59 ;1;z/roved for Release: 2020/02/21 CO3160621 A DAILY BRIEF TOP SECRET ///, Zz Approved for Release: 2/026702/21 C03160623 too IA Caribbean area: Former Costa Rican President Jose Figueres, during his current trip to Cuba, will probably try to dissuade Castro from actions that would increase Commu- nist capabilities in the area, and seek Castro's help for his own plans for ousting the regimes in Nicaragua and the Domin- ican Republic. He and his ally, Venezuelan President Betan- ( -court, are deeply concerned over Castro's demagoguery and his predilection for supporting pro-Communist group revolutionaries in his crusade against dictatorships. (Page 5) IV. SIGNIFICANT INTELLIGENCE REPORTS AND ESTIMATES (Available during the preceding week) Threats to the Stability of the US Military Facilities Position In the Caribbean Area and Brazil. SNIE 100-3-59. 10 March 1959. The Outlook for Jordan. NIE 36.3-59. 10 March 1959. Chinese Communist Intentions and Probable Courses of Action in the Taiwan Strait Area. SNIE 100-4-59. 13 March 1959. Berlin. SNIE 100-2/1-59. 17 March 1959. LATE ITEMS *USSR - Nuclear test talks: an an abrupt reversal, the USSR has agreed at the Geneva talks to the American draft article on the duration of a nuclear test cessation treaty. The Soviet lead- ers probably believe this demonstration of willingness to mak concessions in important East-West negotiations will increase pressure on the West to agree to Soviet terms for talks on Ber- lin and a German peace treaty. Moscow remains in disagree- ment with Western views on voting and inspection procecture,g 20 Mar 59 DAILY BRIEF iii TOP SECRET A pproved for Release: 2020/02/21c03160621 iv ,Ar Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Niu0 -10 rand the staffing of inspection posts. Following Prime Minis- ter Macmillan's talks with Khrushchey British officials indi cated their belief that the USSR will make no concessions on its insistence on veto powers in the proposed control commis sion except possibly as part of a "package me etingTh AcTinet:C_Ene Dalai Lama fled Lhasa on 17 Marsh and requested asylum in India through the Indian counsul genera in Lhasa, A irom tne Inman political officer in Sikkim. As of 13 March the Dalai Lama was under protective custody of Tibetan reb- els in Lhasa whose cause he is believed to be supporting, according to intercepted messages. Should he succeed in reaching'India or Bhutan, Peiping may be expected to exer pressure on Nehru to reject the Dalai Lama's request. While Nehru would be reluctant to jeopardize his relations with Pei- ping by offering asylum, he probably would not refuse the Dalai Lama permission to remain at least temporarily in Indial 20 Mar 59 DAILY BRIEF iv -FOP SECRET fAApproved for Release: 2020/02/21 Approved for C03160623 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC (No Back-up Material) IL ASIA-AFRICA Turkey Supports Qasirwin struggie wan uAtt j.Jurkish Foreign Minister Zorlu informed the American ambassador on 16 March of Turkey's conviction that Iraqi Prime Minister Qasim is not under Communist domination and that he now wants help from the West to maintain Iraq's independence. Zorlu added that Turkey could not remain dis- interested if the UAR now or later makes a move against IraP Zorlu stated even more emphatically that Turkey's reaction to any UAR move would be "strong and immediate," leaving the implication that Turkey might even take military action. Zorlu left the distinct impression that the Turks would react to either an armed attack by the UAR or an internal revolt with attributable UAR support] an previous Middle East crises the Turks, seeing the po- tential threat to their southern border, have threatened mil- itary intervention. Since they are dependent on US logistical support to sustain any extensive military operations, however, they would probably not commit Turkish forces without prior consultation. The Turks have a total of approximately 70,000 troops in the vicinity of the Syrian border, half of whom are P'Pn r me rie subject to absorption into the army in wartime. [The chief of the Turkish General Staff, General Rustu Erdelhun, began a long-planned visit to Iran on 14 March. Mil- itary discussions probably will seek to coordinate the Turkish) TOP SECRET 20 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Page 1 -rieum irk es in ," 1-1, in rm.. Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Now, "or Land Iranian response to any future UAR moves against Iraq. In contrast to the Turkish attitude, which has given Qasim the benefit of every doubt and discounted indications that he is un- der Communist domination, Iran has taken a hostile view of the Qasim governmenq Qor several months Turkey, Iran, and Israel have been exchanging intelligence on the Middle East, and Turkey's strong anti-UAR position probably reflects the Israeli conviction that Nasir is the principal threat ii the Middle East''.7 TOP SECRET 20 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 Ns, Noir Nepali Congress Leads in National Elections The moderate socialist Nepali Congress is maintaining such a sizable lead in Nepal's first national elections--being held between 18 February and 3 April--that it now seems as- sured of winning a majority and forming the first government under the new constitution. Results for about half the parliament's 109 seats have been announced to date. The Nepali Congress has won 38 of the 55 seats declared, or 69 percent. The other two major political parties, the rightist Gurkha Parishad and former Prime Min- ister K. I. Singh's United Democratic party, each appear to be winning less than 15 percent of the seats. The Communist party has won only one seat so far, and has little support in areas where polling has yet to be completed. The Nepali Congress is the country's oldest, largest; and best-organized party. The country-wide support it is receiving probably is a result of its reputation as leader of the rebellion against the autocratic Rana regime in 1950-51. The party lead- er, B. P. Koirala, is likely to be called on by King Mahendra to form a government. King Mahendra, who reportedly had been attempting to di- vide political party strength evenly, may find a Nepali Congress government--supported by a clear majority and a popular man- date--harder to control than previous cabinets. Mahendra, how- ever, retains ultimate power under the constitution promulgated in February, and internal dissension in the Nepali Congress is likely to make cabinet unity difficult. The Indian Government apparently has backed the Nepali Congress as offering the best prospect for the stable and pro- gressive government New Delhi feels is essential to protect its special interest in Nepal and to limit Chinese Communist influence. 20 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Page 3 Approved for Release: 2-0-2-07021 C03160623 *RS III. THE WEST Adenauer Willing to Extend De Facto Recognition to East Germany Ehancellor Adenauer informed the executive committee of his party's Bundestag faction on 19 March that he is willing to extend de facto recognition to the East German Government providing that in negotiating this concession the status quo in Berlin can be maintained and contacts between East and West Germany can be increased. He based his policy change on the need to gain time to settle broad East-West problems and to avoid East-West negotiations on disengagement. Adenauer said that this move would probably be interpreted as an aban- donment of unification, but that the only way to achieve unity within the framework of a general detente is to stabilize the present situation. Adenauer called for and received firm par- ty support for these vie w.s23 ap a probable move to force Adenauer's hand on the unifica- tion question, the opposition Social Democratic party (SPD) has presented a new proposal on unification and European se- curity which combines features of the Rapacki Plan and some elements of a German confederation. This proposal would provide for three stages in reunification, beginning with a planning committee of East and West Germans and'endirig with free elections of an all-German government four Years late9 /he new moves by Adenauer and the SPD may both be tactical maneuvers directed toward two state elections in April, which will be the first since the beginning of the Ber- lin crisis. Both parties are attempting to appeal to a grow- ing demand in West Germany for some new appoachJnihe problems of Berlin and German reunificatio9 SECRET 20 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Approved for Release: IOT070721 C03160623 Anti-Communist Costa Rican Vies With Castro for Leadership Of Drive Against Dictators Fidel Castro appears to be meeting with competition for leadership of the drive against Latin American dictatorships. Former Costa Rican President Jose Figueres, just back from long consultations with his close ally, Venezuelan President Betancourt, has told the American ambassador that he intends to head the revolutionary effort against the Somoza regime in Nicaragua. He also appears deeply involved in plans to oust Dominican dictator Trujillo. Figueres and Betancourt, both long-time foes of Latin Amer- ican dictators, share a deep concern over Castro's demagoguery and his support for pro-Communist groups of Nicaraguan and Dominican revolutionaries. During his current visit in Havana, Figueres is expected to attempt to dissuade Castro from activ- ities that would increase Communist capabilities in the area and to seek Castro's support for his own revolutionary efforts. Figueres' National Liberation party (PLN) has prepared a public statement reaffirming its position in support of demo- cratic movements dedicated to ousting dictators, but taking a strong stand against movements that would include Communists. Representatives of the PLN, Betancourt% Democratic Action party, and the Peruvian APRA party are scheduled to meet on 6 April, probably in the Costa Rican capital, and are expected to issue a similar statement, modified if necessary by the re- sults of the Figueres-Castro talks. SECRET 20 Mar 59 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 P:age 5 Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 Noire Nave THE PRESIDENT The Vice President Executive Offices of the White House Special Assistant for National Security Affairs Scientific Adviser to the President Director of the Budget Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy Executive Secretary, National Security Council The Treasury Department The Secretary of the Treasury The Department of State The Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration The Counselor Director, International Cooperation Administration The Director of Intelligence and Research The Department of Defense The Secretary of Defense The Deputy Secretary of Defense Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs The Secretary of the Army The Secretary of the Navy The Secretary of the Air Force The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff Commandant, United States Marine Corps The Director, The Joint Staff Chief of Staff, United States Army Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy Chief of Staff, United States Air Force Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force Supreme Allied Commander, Europe Commander in Chief, Pacific The Department of the Interior The Secretary of the Interior The Department of Commerce The Secretary of Commerce Federal Bureau of Investigation The Director Atomic Energy Commission The Chairman National Security Agency The Director National Indications Center The Director United States Information Agency The Director CONFIDENTIAL Approved for Release: 2020/02/21 C03160623 47r