CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/02/19

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03161844
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: February 19, 1956

CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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19 February 1956
Copy No. 103
DOCUMENT NO
NO CHANGE IN CLASS al
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE 0 1 0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 144 Tim% � tOREVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
717
TOP SECRET
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CONTENTS
1. MIKOYAN'S SPEECH TO THE 20TH PARTY CONGRESS
'(page 3).
2. ATTEMPTED REVOLUTION IN PERO
(page 5).
30 SAUDI TERMS FOR OPENING TALKS UNACCEPTABLE
TO BRITISH (page 6).
4. BRITAIN MAY PERSUADE INDIA NOT TO PURCHASE
SOVIET AIRCRAFT (page 7).
5. PARIS SEEN IN WEAK POSITION IN NEGOTIATIONS
WITH MOROCCO (page 8).
6. SOVIET AMBASSADOR DENIES USSR IS HOSTILE TO
ISRAEL (page 9).
7. CHINESE COMMUNIST AMBASSADOR LEAVES PAKISTAN
(page 10)0
8. MAINTENANCE OF STABILITY IN SOUTH KOREA MAY
BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT (page 11).
19 Feb 56
� THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 12)
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1, MIKOYAN'S SPEECH TO THE 20TH PARTY CONGRESS
First Deputy Premier A. I. Mikoyan's
authoritative elaboration of the major
points in Khrushchev's central committee
report to the 20th Party Congress con-
firms his position as one of the top three or four leaders in
the Soviet Union today.
Mikoyan expanded somewhat on those
aspects of Khrushchev's speech which dealt with Soviet for-
eign policy. Although the speech was mild in tone, he point-
edly warned that the USSR now possesses the means for de-
livering atomic and hydrogen bombs to "American cities."
He admitted that a large-scale war with these weapons would
bring about great devastation, but insisted that "the outdated
and pernicious regime of capitalism" would be destroyed
rather than "mankind and its civilization."
In his treatment of Stalin, Mikoyan went
further than the other speakers at the congress in downgrad-
ing the former dictator. For the first time, Stalin's dicta
on ideology have been explicitly attacked, with the result that
his Economic Problems of Socialism, published in 1952 shortly
before the 19th Party Congress, is no longer to be considered
an authoritative guide to action by the Communist Party.
Decrying the cult of Stalin, Mikoyan re-
echoed the call for a new party history, and the content of his
remarks suggests that the vindication of some Old Bolshe-
viks purged by Stalin might be undertaken in the new volume.
Mikoyan charged that "disproportions"
exist between the supply of goods and the population's finan-
cial resources, thus admitting the existence of serious infla-
tionary pressures in the Soviet economy. His remedy for
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this situation is that further price reductions will be made
only when warranted by an increase in supply.
Mikoyan also criticized Soviet econ-
omists' work on both the West and the USSR. Those study-
ing capitalism were accused of picking out specific unfavorable
statistics for propaganda purposes. In another reversal of
long-standing, policy, he deplored the liquidation of the Insti-
tute of World Economy and World Politics, which was broken
up by Stalin in 1947 when Eugene Varga used its podium to
express a realistic view of capitalist achievements. Although
Khrushchev in his speech had repeated the standard line on
the "coming crisis of capitalism," the Soviet leadership is ap-
parently dissatisfied with it and is seeking a more objective
economic and historical analysis. (Prepared
jointly with ORR)
19 Feb 56
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�CONEIDEPVTTrAr�
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INLCRE
2. ATTEMPTED REVOLUTION IN PERU
The dictatorial regime of General Odria
appears for the moment to be withstand-
ing another attempt to overthrow it. Al-
though the rebel forces under General
Marcial Merino Pereira still hold the
jungle city of Iquitos on the upper Amazon,
the revolt has not spread to military gar-
risons in the capital or other important
cities.
It will probably be at least three more
days before troops, reportedly sent part
way from Lima to Iquitos by air on 19 Feb-
ruary, will be able to reach Iquitos. Unless these troops are
supported by air action--which the government is apparently
not willing to do at this time�it is unlikely they will be able
to recapture the city.
On 19 February the American army and
air attaches estimated that the government's task force would
be unsuccessful and that Odria would be ousted in two weeks.
A day earlier, the American ambassador in Lima had reported
that the government was displaying indecision on what course
to follow to retake Iquitos. The ambassador believed that the
longer the indecisive situation existed, the more likely it would
be that the Odria government would fall.
Meanwhile, Odria is using the revolt as
a pretext to crack down on all opposition forces. By wide-
spread arrests, including those of several conservative poli-
ticians and the editor and staff members of an important oppo-
sition newspaper, Odria is alienating many segments that have
supported him in the past.
By imposing a state of siege on 16 February,
Odria postponed beyond the 3 March deadline the selection of
his candidate for the June presidential elections, Under the
constitution, he is not able to succeed himself. If it should ap-
pear that Odria does not intend to permit a relatively free elec-
tion, sufficient other military elements may defect to oust him.
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3. SAUDI TERMS FOR OPENING TALKS
UNACCEPTABLE TO BRITISH
Saudi Arabia has agreed to open
direct talks with Britain provided
the situation which existed in the
Buraimi oasis region before the
arbitration attempt last fall is re-
stored.
Comment British rejection of the Saudi terms
would encourage King Saud to take
the issue to the UN Security Council, where he expects
American support. London probably hopes eventually to
reach a settlement by offering the Saudis territory else-
where in Trucial Oman.
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4. BRITAIN MAY PERSUADE INDIA NOT TO PURCHASE
SOVIET AIRCRAFT
Reports from the press
suggest that Britain
will be able to persuade New Delhi not
to purchase Soviet military aircraft
and to reject a Soviet offer to establish
a factory in India for construction of
Soviet-type aircraft.
key civil and military authorities continue
Lo De opposeci Lb Indian dependence on the USSR for spare
parts, instructors, and technicians.
India, which already manufactures
British Vampire jet fighters under contract, is in the fi-
nal stages of negotiating with Britain for a plant to construct
Gnat jet fighters and is discussing the purchase of Canberra
jet bombers. Since Britain now seems-willing to put a
higher priority than previously on aid and deliveries to India,
New Delhi is unlikely to purchase or manufacture Soviet fight-
ers. The picture regarding bombers is less clear, but ap-
pears to favor Britain rather than the USSR.
(Concurred in by ORR)
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5. PARIS SEEN IN WEAK POSITION IN NEGOTIATIONS
WITH MOROCCO
American ambassador Dillon in
Paris anticipates that the Moroc-
cans will hold a clear advantage in
the negotiations with the French
Ti-Nhich formally began in Paris on 15 February because
Paris is almost completely unprepared. On 15 Febru-
ary a French spokesman stated that a negotiating team
for working sessions scheduled to begin on 22 February
had not yet been named. Dillon attributes this difficulty
to the unwillingness of prospective candidates to commit
political suicide by participating in the "dissolution of
the French empire."
� Comment Since last fall Paris has repeatedly
expressed its readiness to go ahead
with the Moroccan negotiations. Unpreparedness at this
late date suggests that the Mollet government, though
possessed of well-intentioned liberal views on North
Africa, lacks the strength to push through its announced
policy.
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3 SOVIET AMBASSADOR DENIES USSR IS HOSTILE
TO ISRAEL
The Soviet ambassador to Israel
assured Foreign Minister Sharett
that the USSR has
no hostility toward Israel,
He explained that after
the conclusion of the Baghdad pact, which was directed
against the USSR, Moscow gave aid to those Arab coun-
tries which opposed the pact.
The Soviet ambassador also declared
that the USSR is closely concerned with conditions in this
area, that it would not agree to the intervention of only the
three Western powers in the Arab-Israeli dispute, and
that such intervention must be made only through the United
Nations.
Comment Khrushchev, in his 29 December
speech to the Supreme Soviet, charged
that Israel had pursued a hostile policy toward its Arab
neighbors "ever since it came into being" and that the "im-
perialist powers" were using Israel as a tool to exploit the
wealth of the Arab people.
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7. CHINESE COMMUNIST AMBASSADOR
LEAVES PAKISTAN
Comment
Following Pakistan's prompt response
to Soviet premier Bulganin's recent
offer of a trade pact and coming before the proposed visit
of Pakistan's premier and foreign minister to Peiping, these
departures may presage further Sino-Soviet bloc political
and economic overtures to Pakistan. The Chinese Commu-
nists apparently hope to dramatize their desire for more
cordial relations with Pakistan and may send new staff mem-
bers more competent in economic and technical aid matters.
Han has served in Karachi since Septem-
ber 1951. He will probably be replaced by an official of
higher rank.
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8, MAINTENANCE OF STABILITY IN SOUTH KOREA
MAY BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT
President Rhee will find maintenance
of control through his policy of balanc-
ing power among the cliques supporting
him increasingly difficult, in the opin-
ion o Chang yong-kun, an influential former vice minis-
ter of national defense and home affairs.
Over the past few months, strength with-
in the government has been concentrated into two major group-
ings. Chang, who is associated with the currently dominant
pro-American faction, including Defense Minister Son Won-il
and Liberal Party leader Yi Ki-pung, considers that the polit-
ical dislocations which have followed the 30 January assassina-
tion of the army counterintelligence chief have created "a very
dangerous time for Korea." Chang believes the assassination
was part of a last-ditch effort by the elements of the rival fac-
tion associated with former prime minister Yi Pom-sok to bid
for political power.
The possibility that Rhee will attempt to
avoid blaming either faction for the assassination�which would
dislocate the political balance he tries so carefully to main-
tain--is suggested by his implications to an American newsman
on 16 February that he would blame the Communists instead.
It is unlikely, however, that this disposition of the problem
would long be acceptable to influential Koreans of either faction,
since Communist involvement was generally discounted within
24 hours after the murder
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 19 February)
There is still a possibility that Israel will
resume work this spring on the Banat Yacov diversionary canal,
despite the statement by Prime Minister Ben-Gurion on 14 Feb-
ruary that the project had been "shelved," according to the Amer-
ican embassy in Tel Aviv. Israel intends to assure for itself
the right to divert and use Jordan River water. The embassy
believes Israel would prefer to gain this assurance by negotia-
tion, but if this is not possible, Israel is likely to take unilateral
measures to complete the diversionary canal in the Israeli-Syrian
demilitarized zone during the coming season.
In elaborating on Ben-Gurion's recent state-
ment, Foreign Minister Sharett told Ambassador Lawson on 16
February that there has been no change in Israeli policy. If there
are prospects in the next few weeks of an agreement on the John-
ston Jordan Valley development plan, Sharett said, Israel will
not "act precipitiously" but does not intend to "waste another sea-
son." If no agreement is in sight by the end of February, he added,
work will be resumed when weather per s ason
usually ends in the latter part of April.
In Syria a closed i�anentas
held on 15 February to discuss an "expected Israeli attack on
Syria." The local press speculated that the formation of a "war
cabinet" was under consideration. The embassy in Damascus re-
ports that the popular and official feeling in Syria is that Israel
intends to resume work on the Banat Yacov project and that hos-
tilities will break out
Israel moved two paratroop companies to Safad, about
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10 miles west of Banat Yacov, presumably in readiness
for a commando-type raid on Syrian positions which might
open fire if work i resumed in the demilitari7ed 7.nnP
The Egyptian military attach�n Syria
told the American army attach�hat Israel, if it opened an
attack on the Arab states, would make its principal objective
the defeat of Egypt, after which the other Arab states would
collapse. The Egyptian attach�ays Egypt has moved some
units into advanced positions and that he believes Israeli units
are likewise stationed in positions near the Egyptian and Syrian
borders
In Cairo on 18 February Prime Minister
Nasr told Ambassador Byroade he had urged the Syrians to be
calm. However, if the Israelis should proceed to divert the Jor-
dan and, as a consequence, enter Syrian territory, Egypt would
have to support its ally. Nasr stated publicly on 19 February that
he expects Israel to open an offensive "any day or night
In Beirut the Lebanese foreign minister on
17 February told the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee,
"we shall enter the war at the side of Syria and Egypt if Israel
diverts Jordan waters." The committee then unanimously recom-
mended that the Lebanese government express its thanks to the
USSR for its condemnation of Israel over the Lake Tiberias inci-
dent. The foreign minister has already called on the Soviet
minister and expressed his government's annreeintian
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