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October 25, 1956
PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15741979].pdf434.59 KB
Approved I for Release: 2019/10/23 3.3(h)(2) 3.5(c) CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 25 October 1956 Copy No, 1 1 DOCUMENT NO. ) NO CHANGE IN CLASS. XA 11 DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S NEXT REVIEW DATE: AUTH: 70-2 DATE: OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCIE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY 0 TO-P-SEERE-T Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 10%Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 1(,r arif.,fur, 1 CONTENTS 1. THE HUNGARIAN SITUATION (page 3) 2. MILITARY ACTIVITIES CONNECTED WITH THE HUNGARIAN CRISIS ) (page 5). 3. ROVIRT LEADERS ACCEPTING NEW POLISH REGIME ) (page 6). 4. POLAND REPORTEDLY TO ASK FOR AMERICAN AID NEXT MONTH (page 8). 5. USSR TESTS AIR-TO-SURFACE MISSILES ) (page 9). 6. FRANCE STIFFENS POSITION ON ALGERIA (page 10). 7. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT'S IMPRESSIONS OF SINO- SOVIET BLOC (page 11). 8. LARGE-SCALE BURMESE ARMY DRIVE ON KARENS (page 12). 25 Oct 56 THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (page 13) Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 TOP-SEeRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 'knee' 1. THE HUNGARIAN SITUATION The Hungarian radio in the early morn- ing hours of 25 October admitted that as of midnight (Budapest time) fighting continued in certain sections of Budapest, contradicting an earlier broadcast from asserted that the "enemy adventure" had been "liquidated" and order restored in the city. Claiming that the situation had improved since earlier in the evening, the Budapest broadcast stated that "the armed attackers are be- coming more and more isolated in some places:t but added that the attackers "have begun to start new actions; they are carrying out surprise attacks in groups of two or three' Soviet and Hungarian military action has included the use of tanks, artillery fire and, in one instance, strafing aircraft against the "rebel" forces, who apparently have occupied a number of industrial plants, apartment build- ings and public buildings within the city of Budapest. No ac- curate reports of over-all casualties have been announced, but eyewitness reports appearing in the press suggest a high casualty rate. Throughout the day, Radio Budapest-- which had been under siege for several hours in the morn- ing--broadcast appeals from party and government leaders, regional party organizations, workers and front groups call- ing for an end to the "senseless bloodshed:' Broadcasts im- plied that when the fighting ended the new government would continue a program of democratization and equality with the USSR, and promised that the Soviet troops who "are risking their lives to protect" the peaceful citizens of Budapest would return to their garrisons after order is restored. The Moscow broadcast at 2235 (Budapest time), which claimed liquidation of the attackers, branded the Budapest rioting as a "counterrevolutionary revolt" of 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 SEGR&T� Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 ar,� %are "Fascist thugs" who represent the "forces of foreign reac- tom!' This Moscow commentary, the first Soviet reaction since the fighting began, also alleged that the outbreak "obviously had been in preparation for some time." The fighting in Hungary--the greatest challenge to Communist authority yet to emerge in Eastern Europe--may cause the Soviet leaders to return to a tougher policy in the Satellites generally, and might cause them to reassess in particular their apparent decision to accommo- date Gomulka in Poland. The Soviet decision not to inter- vene in Poland was presumably based in part on a general reluctance to compromise so drastically and openly their de-Stalinization campaign and "peaceful coexistence" line., This reluctance may already have been diminished by the necessity for direct intervention in Hungary. Although threats to the Communist regime in Poland, as distinct from threats to Soviet control, appear considerably less potent than those in Hungary, Moscow may now review its estimate of the abil- ity of Gomulka and other Satellite leaders to maintain order. The situation in Hungary outside of Buda- pest is not yet clear but there has been firm evidence of vio- lence in other Hungarian cities. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 -SECRET- Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 A vr 2. MILITARY ACTIVITIES CONNECTED WITH THE HUNGARIAN CRISIS Comment on: on 24 October, the 2nd Guards Mechanized Division, Soviet Forces in Hungary, which is normally stationed in Kecskemet, 50 miles south of Budapest, made a hurried move to Budapest and took up positions there. On the morning of 24 October, a de-- tached element of the 32nd Mechanized Division, Soviet Independent Mechanized Army in Rumania, was on the move from its garrison in Timisoara, western Rumania. � Six Mos- cow-based military air transports normally associated with VIP trips were noted in flights to Hungary on 24 October, with one proceeding on to Belgrade. Two of these were the planes which carried top Kremlin leaders to Warsaw on 19 October. Khrushchev, however, was seen in Moscow with � Bulganin on 24 October. A unit of the 5th Hungarian Rifle Division normally stationed in Kecskemet destroy barricades and to stop the mobs. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page �5 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 I Ur / .00# Noe" 3. SOVIET LEADERS ACCEPTING NEW POLISH REGIME the Soviet leaders were more concerned on their 19 October trip to Warsaw with preventing the Polish central committee from passing an anti-Soviet resolution than about per- sonnel changes in the politburo; al- though they insisted that Marshal Rokossowski be retained. Gomulka remained adamant on Rokossowskies dismissal, however, and the Soviet leaders yielded, requesting that a Polish delegation come to Moscow to continue discussions. The Polish leaders reportedly did not commit themselves to the Moscow trip, Polish party leaders apparently are leaking the story that Gomulka, Ochab and Cyrankiewicz en a ively have agreed to fly to Moscow on 26 October. These three reportedly talked by telephone most of the night of 22 October with the Kremlin and in- sisted that before they would come, the Kremlin must stop all threatening military movements. Moscow apparently is meeting this conditions for Premier Cyrankiewicz an- nounced to parliament on 24 October that the Soviet troops would be back at their bases within two days. Soviet naval vessels, including at least one cruiser and three destroyers, which were off Gdynia on 22 October departed the morning of 23 October. this force was conducting a routine exercise in t ��th� Baltic which was well under way on 18 October. While it is probable that the exercise has been terminated, several Soviet naval units remain in the vicinity of the Polish coast. Soviet air patrols also have been noted along the Polish coast between 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6 TOP-SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 7-Cit Nrare' icor' Kaliningrad and the Danish island of Bornholm, commenc- ing on 19 October and continuing through at least 23 October. Warsaw's editorial of 22 October, which endorsed the changes in Poland, criticized President Eisen- hower and Secretary Dulles for their remarks on Poland, and reaffirmed Polish solidarity with socialist countries, was re- published in Pravda and Izvestia on 23 October. The Amer- ican embassy in Moscow believes that the USSR is attempting to place the best possible appearance on Polish developments and is leading up to an authoritavnstatemnt which will pub- licly approve the new regime. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7 TOP-S-E eRE-7` Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 4. POLAND REPORTEDLY TO ASK FOR AMERICAN AID NEXT MONTH Foreign Minister Rapacki may tubutibs the possibilities of Ameri- can aid to Poland with Secretary Dulles at the United Nations General Assembly session in Novem- ber. the new Polish leaders are coming to the conclusion that without Western, specifically Ameri- can, economic help, they will not be able to solve .their problems and will in the long run have no independence from Moscow even if the Soviet Union lets them have their way now. Comment An official of the Yugoslav Foreign Ministry on 23 October told the Ameri- can embassy in Belgrade that the Poles had inquired about Yugoslav aid arrangements with the United States but had not asked Belgrade to make a "preliminary reconnaissance" on their behalf. The American embassy in London re- ported that the British Foreign Office has been sufficiently encouraged by events in Poland to consider a camouflaged loan to Poland in the form of a generous trade agreement when British-Polish trade talks commence in late November. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869t kir oni-r-z-1 4,41, vftse 5. USSR TESTS MR-TO-SURFACE MISSILES TU46 jet medium bombers launched single objects-- -at a ground target in the Vladimirovka area. The objects were powered and capable of flight for at least five minutes. The aircraft were from a "special purpose" unit which may now be subordinate to the Sixth Bomber Corps of the Long Range Air Force. Comment This is the first firm evidence that air- to-surface missiles have been fired in the USSR. Although the type of propulsion and guidance is unknown, these are believed to be subsonic missiles devel- oped since World War II--possibly a version of the "Korner antishipping missile� which has been under development for several years. The circumstances of the testing activity suggest that a Soviet air-to-surface missile may be nearing an operational stage of development. It has been estimated that the USSR probably could have an operational subsonic air-to-surface missile before the end of 1957. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 TOP SECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Nord 6, FRANCE STIFFENS POSITION ON ALGERIA While some concern is evident in Paris over the effects the capture of five Algerian nationalist leaders may have on France's position in Morocco and Tunisia, the government thus far appears to have no intention of backing down. France's case in the UN Gen- eral Assembly may be further weakened,,however, and France, in the hope of offsetting the unfavorable reaction to the plane seizure, may concentrate on its complaints against Egypt rather than make the planned "declaration of intent" on Algeria. Premier Mollet has announced France's intention of presenting to the Security Council its complaints against Egypt for shipping arms to Algeria. Meanwhile, non-Communist French deputies generally have indicated enthusiastic support for the government's stand. There are some signs of discon- tent in the cabinet, however, and Mollet's reaffirmation on 23 October of his intention to continue the pacification ef- fort will keep alive the apprehensions of the Radicals, as well as those of some of his Socialist Party. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin �SEGREZ. Page 10 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Nrervi Niroo' 7. INDONESIAN PRESIDENT'S IMPRESSIONS OF SINO-SOVIET BLOC Foreign Minister Abdulgani, who ac- companied President Sukarno on a seven-week tour of the Sino-Soviet bloc, told the American ambassador in Djakarta that the president believed was "really working" in Communist China. Sukarno and most members of his entourage were more im- pressed generally with Communist China than by the Soviet Union. In Yugoslavia, Sukarno was intrigued by that gov- ernment's ability to obtain aid from both East and West. Sukarno will probably make public his impressions of bloc countries and their application to Indonesia when he addresses the Constituent Assembly, which he hopes to convene on 10 November. He has fre- quently stated that Indonesia can borrow profitably from both blocs in writing a constitution and in charting its economic philosophy. His sympathy for Marxism, now reinforced by his favorable impressions of Communist China, may lead him to advise even more strongly than heretofore a socialized economy and a highly centralized government. He will probably endorse increased rela- tions in all fields with bloc countries and particularly with Communist China. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 11 -SEreRLET�T- Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 I Name NWO 8. LARGE-SCALE BURMESE ARMY DRIVE ON KARENS The Burmese army, following the end of the monsoon rains in mid-October, has started a drive against the Karen insurgents in eastern Burma� The drive eing pressed in conformance with Premier Ba Swe's promise to do everything in his power to restore law and order within two years. The scope of the present cam- paign and concentration on the Karens may be due to their reported agreement last summer to co-operate closely with the Communist insurgents. Although previous actions against the Karens have been indecisive, the American army attach� in Rangoon reports that the army is employing encircling tactics this year which are designed to prevent the insur- gents from escaping to safe areas as they have in the past. The attach�s inclined to believe these tactics will succeed. The prospects for success are further en- hanced by greater co-operation from Thailand, which has just signed a treaty of friendship with Burma. The Thai for- eign minister reportedly has indicated Bangkok's willingness to move Karen refugees into the interior of Thailand in order to prevent their contact with insurgents still in the field. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 12 SEC�RED Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869 Noir THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (Information as of 1700, 24 October) Very heavy military traffic in the Israeli Central Command area was noted on 23 October, with some small units, including a water-tank company, moving south-- ward, according to the US army attach�n Tel Aviv. He re- ported bridge construction, preparation of camouflage netting, very heavy laying of communication wire, and a large number of water trailers lined up in an area about six miles southeast of Tel Aviv. The attach�aid also that the 11th Infantry Bri- gade appeared to be combat-loading preparatory to moving out. A reconnaissance in the Northern Command area revealed no military activity, with only a few troops observed. Israeli mil- itary activity was reported on 23 October to be continuing in forward areas obbosite West Jordan and in theSouthern Com- mand. Jordanian chief of staff Nuwar stated on 24 October, following the meetings of the Syrian, Egyptian, and Jordan military representatives, that Syria, Egypt and Jordan had established a unified army command. He said this com- mand, under Egypt's Major General Amer, would operate in the event of an Arab-Israeli war. (Press) cl r A "Polish" submarine and an auxiliary were observed entering the Great Belt on a northerly course on 2'1 Oc- tober, according to the US naval attach�n Copenhagen. This boat is probably one of two Soviet submarines to be transferred to Egypt by the USSR. The circumstances of this departure from the Baltic follow the pattern of the previous transfer of four So- viet mine sweepers and two destroyers to Egypt. If destined for Egypt, the submarine and its auxiliary should pass Gibral- tar on about 29 October and arrive in Alexandria on about 6 November. 25 Oct 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 13 ---SEeRE12� Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03161869